{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"maketable4":{"description_shown":"The authors' replication file for Table 4 of Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001), 'The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development': one row per country (163 rows). Columns: shortnam, the 3-letter country code; africa, 1 for countries in Africa; asia, 1 for countries in Asia; rich4, 1 for the four 'neo-Europes' (United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand); lat_abst, absolute latitude of the capital divided by 90; avexpr, average protection against expropriation risk over 1985-1995 (Political Risk Services, 0 to 10, higher means more protection); logpgp95, log GDP per capita in 1995, PPP basis (World Bank); logem4, log settler mortality (mortality of European settlers); loghjypl, log output per worker in 1988 (Hall and Jones); baseco, 1 for the former colonies in the paper's base sample and missing for every other country.","file_sha256":"cd3a1cb197e3065411fce6fabbe06161555468049e6810a28c608d6e361aed34","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001), 'The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development', Table 4, Panel A, column (1): in the paper's base sample of former colonies, estimate by two-stage least squares the effect of average protection against expropriation risk over 1985-1995 on log GDP per capita in 1995 (PPP basis), instrumenting protection against expropriation risk with log European settler mortality and with no other regressors. Report the coefficient on average protection against expropriation risk.","question_sha256":"ef6b569223f46397f604f38d5bac7d81568c671d4a0221588e5d043dd7574a40","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","task_sha256":"810a8a537e738cae894895a8aa67b25a141d37557666633324bb7b9f29b2cea3","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:00.349648Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[{"config_ref":"8ee0d84c29b117269608a8edad648afadcb20e12f00a5d88b7d64223f4b057e2","discarded":false,"error":null,"finish_reason":"STOP","latency_ms":8337.67508296296,"raw_ref":"1616298c3cc1cec486415b444f9149d3664a3ec09bb9aaa49fc7381eb9578c6e","started_at":"2026-10-15T12:41:00.652496Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":18474,"output":131,"thoughts":377}}],"call_id":"call_be68a177","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"STOP","latency_ms":8337.67508296296,"model_reported":"gemini-3.8-flash","model_requested":"gemini-3.8-flash","provider":"gemini","request":{"config":{"automatic_function_calling":{"disable":true,"maximum_remote_calls":10},"max_output_tokens":32000,"seed":null,"temperature":null,"thinking_config":{"include_thoughts":true},"tool_config":{"function_calling_config":{"mode":"AUTO"}},"top_k":null,"top_p":null},"contents_refs":["c837d819101eb7482490acf19747c7570bf0ec8cf6c2b4480ec5883599174206"],"messages_refs":["ef0ff53deead73c69937a13bdf31b8b31941ebe29bd1d7c128b7caaedd841e49"],"system_stable_ref":"265d63d091732725cd5b15f51e1686b68b6b276ae88794f6120dc818830a2a97","system_task_ref":"438237559235ba9eff244483d2a91d6ac5399b4d63eb2c6383096d4de95e77e5","tools_ref":"a44ef51f03df5188f084f1e0227b68df116b942a22fd50c0a88670cf3461fedd"},"response":{"text":"A regress\u00e3o por M\u00ednimos Quadrados em Dois Est\u00e1gios (2SLS) estima o efeito da prote\u00e7\u00e3o contra risco de expropria\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o log do PIB per capita de 1995 na amostra base de ex-col\u00f4nias, instrumentada pela mortalidade dos colonizadores europeus.","thoughts":"**Replicating Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001), Table 4, Panel A, Column (1)**\n\nOkay, here's the plan. I want to replicate Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson's (2001) Table 4, Panel A, column (1). Specifically, I'm after a 2SLS estimate using their core data. I'm going to focus on the base sample of former colonies (`baseco == 1`). The outcome variable I'm interested in is `logpgp95`, which represents log GDP per capita in 1995 (PPP basis). My endogenous regressor is `avexpr`, representing the average protection against expropriation risk over 1985-1995. The instrument will be `logem4`, which is the log of European settler mortality. No other regressors are needed, so `exog` will be handled as empty or `None`. The subset condition is `baseco == 1`, as the paper focuses on former colonies.\n\nNow, a crucial detail: the standard errors. In AJR (2001), they used OLS/2SLS (classical) standard errors, which were standard back then. However, I want to confirm what this tool supports and returns. The default `se` for the function `infer__iv_2sls` is HC1, so I'll need to check the available options: classical or HC1. I need to make sure the standard errors match the original paper for a clean replication. I should look into the function's parameters.\n\nBefore I start, I'll need to call `infer__iv_2sls`. Before I do that, though, I need to make sure the right skill is loaded, so let me quickly verify that. Okay, I'm ready to call `infer__iv_2sls`.\n\n\n","tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"maketable4","endog":["avexpr"],"instruments":["logem4"],"se":"classical","subset":"baseco == 1","y":"logpgp95"},"llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","vendor_id":"call_519035"}]},"response_id":"3cnQao32Jszoz7IPnYC4iQU","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":1,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:00.349648Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":18474,"output":131,"thoughts":377},"vendor":true}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"maketable4","endog":["avexpr"],"exog":[],"instruments":["logem4"],"level":0.95,"se":"classical","subset":"baseco == 1","y":"logpgp95"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_c77e46a0","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"38e979372a0f","dataset_digests":{"maketable4":"dc8a5df19428e33e3bb4109922ccbd092a69bde0d19a217451baa154782debfc"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":12.851792154833674,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"1b2bb7f5f82037c03141e2199a9d95588c1c3877bc4c2ccfbc949196031e8a34","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","output_digest":"98f84285f217edb692d9f674412ad2fa98a8d225f6e0345f0c055d997ff189f2","rationale":"A regress\u00e3o por M\u00ednimos Quadrados em Dois Est\u00e1gios (2SLS) estima o efeito da prote\u00e7\u00e3o contra risco de expropria\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o log do PIB per capita de 1995 na amostra base de ex-col\u00f4nias, instrumentada pela mortalidade dos colonizadores europeus.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent and have the same variance for every observation"],"call_id":"call_c77e46a0","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.avexpr","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for avexpr (classical (homoskedastic) standard errors)","value":22.94679658705377},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.avexpr","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.2701313941078145},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":64},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"classical (homoskedastic) standard errors","value":"classical"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":1.2571693160472515,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.6313894542623473,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":0.9442793851547994,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":-0.5729681917341751},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":-0.6067782488338938}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de logem4 na forma reduzida (logpgp95 sobre logem4) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (avexpr sobre logem4).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.15652545732957907,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.024500218792233876}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o cl\u00e1ssico (homoced\u00e1stico): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.9442793851547994},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9989715170333786},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.15652545732957907}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 62 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.avexpr","label":"2SLS effect of avexpr on logpgp95","se":0.15652545732957907,"unit":"","value":0.9442793851547994}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":3.9620651347598503,"ci_low":-0.1427320536663681,"coef":1.909666540546741,"p":0.0676371961257388,"se":1.0267272828674519,"t":1.8599549972154334,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":1.2571693160472515,"ci_low":0.6313894542623473,"coef":0.9442793851547994,"p":9.798644711494112e-08,"se":0.15652545732957907,"t":6.032752762807972,"term":"avexpr"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":-0.3535713248767556,"ci_low":-0.8599851727910319,"coef":-0.6067782488338938,"endog":"avexpr","instrument":"logem4","p":1.0765461520046432e-05,"se":0.12666860022743895,"t":-4.79028147263329}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":-0.4207319879491951,"ci_low":-0.7252043955191552,"coef":-0.5729681917341751,"instrument":"logem4","p":2.6586798876505685e-10,"se":0.07615726511746891,"t":-7.523486969370543}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"a489091fc8a649114bfa5452203f610e0d16e65eaf87dbf479f1edb072b5577a","result_sha256":"7ef27b7075f2911203015fe3caf7f968e2bf844ecadcecc618e1199877a73b1a","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:08.994039Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":"call_be68a177"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[{"config_ref":"8ee0d84c29b117269608a8edad648afadcb20e12f00a5d88b7d64223f4b057e2","discarded":false,"error":null,"finish_reason":"STOP","latency_ms":12238.899416988716,"raw_ref":"9e20df08693144afecb7a5e1a68e126501102a03270d671065e81027b82a6c5d","started_at":"2026-10-15T12:41:09.019517Z","usage":{"cached":16729,"input":20056,"output":344,"thoughts":678}}],"call_id":"call_928aba4c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"STOP","latency_ms":12238.899416988716,"model_reported":"gemini-3.8-flash","model_requested":"gemini-3.8-flash","provider":"gemini","request":{"config":{"automatic_function_calling":{"disable":true,"maximum_remote_calls":10},"max_output_tokens":32000,"seed":null,"temperature":null,"thinking_config":{"include_thoughts":true},"tool_config":{"function_calling_config":{"mode":"AUTO"}},"top_k":null,"top_p":null},"contents_refs":["c837d819101eb7482490acf19747c7570bf0ec8cf6c2b4480ec5883599174206","6bc3e2e3291fcf837fe99748a4243b5d7c9577a38c7a1e23fbd57a126996ce20","fad07ce283546ec4741f8a0ecca36994e8f3516446cc59c45a370ab3cb2dbe7e"],"messages_refs":["ef0ff53deead73c69937a13bdf31b8b31941ebe29bd1d7c128b7caaedd841e49","03fe6d682d3561d879c2e6a3d5dd7565a48f7b25f9c259c418a95ff11224c864","1bb87812b24482afaf5e03c84b7c1c4cfeb06eb42111693b4472d070660b3c23"],"system_stable_ref":"265d63d091732725cd5b15f51e1686b68b6b276ae88794f6120dc818830a2a97","system_task_ref":"438237559235ba9eff244483d2a91d6ac5399b4d63eb2c6383096d4de95e77e5","tools_ref":"a44ef51f03df5188f084f1e0227b68df116b942a22fd50c0a88670cf3461fedd"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":"**My Analysis of the AJR (2001) Coefficient**\n\nOkay, let's dive into this. First, I'm checking the results I have: the coefficient on `avexpr` is 0.944279 (about 0.94), with a standard error of 0.156525. *That* looks familiar; based on my memory and quick check to confirm, those are the numbers reported in Table 4, Panel A, column (1) of AJR 2001 (0.94, SE 0.16!). The first-stage F-statistic is 22.95 \u2013 I remember the paper reported the F-statistic or R2 as 0.27; the sample size is 64.  Let me note that I don't need to consider HC1 standard errors here, as the original study used OLS/2SLS SEs (0.16), so it makes sense to stay consistent.\n\nI'm making a quick note that I will use the reporting-numbers skill to submit the final answer, so I will prepare that now.\n\nLet me ensure the figure reference is correct: `call_c77e46a0:coef.avexpr`.\n\nNow, let's verify what I have: a coefficient of 0,944279 (approximately 0,94), a standard error of 0,156525, a confidence interval of [0,631389, 1,25717], a first-stage F-statistic of 22,9467965870538, and 64 observations.\n\nI'll double-check my figure reference is `call_c77e46a0:coef.avexpr`.\n\nLet's review the prompt to ensure a correct answer: I'm focusing on Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001), specifically Table 4, Panel A, column (1). I am estimating, using two-stage least squares, the impact of average protection against expropriation risk (1985-1995) on log GDP per capita in 1995 (PPP basis). The instrument is log European settler mortality, with no other regressors. My task is to report the coefficient on average protection against expropriation risk.\n\nI have to remember my caveats. I must state that the exclusion restriction assumes that historical settler mortality affects 1995 income *only* through institutional development. This can be violated if other channels (like disease environment or geography) persist directly. Also, the model is exactly identified (one instrument for one endogenous variable), which means no overidentification test (Sargan) is possible.\n\nEverything seems correct, so I'm submitting the answer.\n\n\n","tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Na replica\u00e7\u00e3o da Tabela 4, Painel A, coluna (1) de Acemoglu, Johnson e Robinson (2001), a estima\u00e7\u00e3o por M\u00ednimos Quadrados em Dois Est\u00e1gios (2SLS) na amostra base de 64 ex-col\u00f4nias indica que o coeficiente do \u00edndice de prote\u00e7\u00e3o contra risco de expropria\u00e7\u00e3o (avexpr) sobre o log do PIB per capita em 1995 (logpgp95) \u00e9 de 0,944279 (erro padr\u00e3o de 0,156525; IC 95% [0,631389; 1,25717]). \n\nO instrumento (log da mortalidade dos colonizadores europeus, logem4) \u00e9 forte no primeiro est\u00e1gio, com estat\u00edstica F de 22,946797 (R\u00b2 parcial de 0,270131).","caveats":["A validade causal depende crucialmente da hip\u00f3tese de exclus\u00e3o, ou seja, de que a mortalidade dos colonizadores afete o produto per capita contempor\u00e2neo unicamente por meio das institui\u00e7\u00f5es legadas, sem canais diretos persistentes (como condi\u00e7\u00f5es epidemiol\u00f3gicas ou geogr\u00e1ficas).","Como o modelo \u00e9 exatamente identificado (um instrumento para um regressor end\u00f3geno), n\u00e3o \u00e9 poss\u00edvel realizar teste de sobreidentifica\u00e7\u00e3o (Sargan)."],"figure_refs":["call_c77e46a0:coef.avexpr"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"call_521182"}]},"response_id":"5snQaqHiDKWP6dkP8LOKgQc","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":3,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:09.007271Z","usage":{"cached":16729,"input":20056,"output":344,"thoughts":678},"vendor":true}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_28032407","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["4","1","2001","64","1995","0,944279","0,156525","95%","0,631389","1,25717","22,946797","0,270131"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":4,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:21.263761Z","turn_id":"call_928aba4c","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Na replica\u00e7\u00e3o da Tabela 4, Painel A, coluna (1) de Acemoglu, Johnson e Robinson (2001), a estima\u00e7\u00e3o por M\u00ednimos Quadrados em Dois Est\u00e1gios (2SLS) na amostra base de 64 ex-col\u00f4nias indica que o coeficiente do \u00edndice de prote\u00e7\u00e3o contra risco de expropria\u00e7\u00e3o (avexpr) sobre o log do PIB per capita em 1995 (logpgp95) \u00e9 de 0,944279 (erro padr\u00e3o de 0,156525; IC 95% [0,631389; 1,25717]). \n\nO instrumento (log da mortalidade dos colonizadores europeus, logem4) \u00e9 forte no primeiro est\u00e1gio, com estat\u00edstica F de 22,946797 (R\u00b2 parcial de 0,270131).\n\nRessalvas: A validade causal depende crucialmente da hip\u00f3tese de exclus\u00e3o, ou seja, de que a mortalidade dos colonizadores afete o produto per capita contempor\u00e2neo unicamente por meio das institui\u00e7\u00f5es legadas, sem canais diretos persistentes (como condi\u00e7\u00f5es epidemiol\u00f3gicas ou geogr\u00e1ficas). Como o modelo \u00e9 exatamente identificado (um instrumento para um regressor end\u00f3geno), n\u00e3o \u00e9 poss\u00edvel realizar teste de sobreidentifica\u00e7\u00e3o (Sargan).","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_c77e46a0","ci_high":1.2571693160472515,"ci_low":0.6313894542623473,"formatted":0.9442793851547994,"key":"coef.avexpr","ref":"call_c77e46a0:coef.avexpr","se":0.15652545732957907,"tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","unit":"","value":0.9442793851547994},"attempt":1,"caveats":["A validade causal depende crucialmente da hip\u00f3tese de exclus\u00e3o, ou seja, de que a mortalidade dos colonizadores afete o produto per capita contempor\u00e2neo unicamente por meio das institui\u00e7\u00f5es legadas, sem canais diretos persistentes (como condi\u00e7\u00f5es epidemiol\u00f3gicas ou geogr\u00e1ficas).","Como o modelo \u00e9 exatamente identificado (um instrumento para um regressor end\u00f3geno), n\u00e3o \u00e9 poss\u00edvel realizar teste de sobreidentifica\u00e7\u00e3o (Sargan)."],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_c77e46a0:coef.avexpr"],"run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:21.266517Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"infer.iv_2sls.y = 'logpgp95'","expected":"logpgp95","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"logpgp95","passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c77e46a0","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":9,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:21.266517Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"infer.iv_2sls.endog = ['avexpr']","expected":["avexpr"],"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["avexpr"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c77e46a0","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T124100Z-suite-paper_repro-gemini-c5ea8f","seq":10,"task_id":"paper_repro.ajr_2001.tab4_pa_c1.agent","timestamp":"2026-10-15T12:41:21.266517Z"}
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