{"answer":"The estimated average treatment effect (ATE) of taking classes online on exam scores is -4.91 (unrounded: -4.91222, robust SE = 1.76679, 95% CI [-8.39495, -1.42949]). \n\nThis estimate was obtained via linear regression of exam score (falsexam) on online format (format_ol), restricted to students in face-to-face (format_blended = 0 and format_ol = 0) and online (format_ol = 1) classes, without additional covariates (N = 214).\n\nRessalvas: The bivariate regression does not adjust for student baseline characteristics or potential non-random sorting into class formats, which may confound the causal interpretation of the ATE.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.352.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":73460,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":73460,"input_tokens":106030,"model_calls":5,"output_tokens":3259,"thought_tokens":2831,"turns":5}}],"caveats":["The bivariate regression does not adjust for student baseline characteristics or potential non-random sorting into class formats, which may confound the causal interpretation of the ATE."],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"-4.91 in (-5.0573, -4.7627)?","expected":[-5.057300000000001,-4.7627],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-4.91,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.352","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-5.057300000000001,-4.7627],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_acd02cd6","weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":null,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":54912.66429191455,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":null,"figure_refs":["call_acd02cd6:coef.format_ol"],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T12:42:59.666935Z","first_estimate":{"passed":true,"ref":"call_acd02cd6:coef.format_ol","tool":"infer.ols","value":-4.91222149822695},"isolation":"pass","meta":{"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":2,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":null,"round_to":"nearest hundredth","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale"},"cluster":"online_classroom.csv","expected_tool":"infer.ols","family":"numerical","headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.format_ol"]},"naive":{"dataset":"online_classroom","treatment":"format_ol","y":"falsexam"},"native":{"answer":"-4.91","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Linear regression","Average treatment effect"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 5"},"native_id":352,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"dataset":"online_classroom","subset":"format_blended == 0","x":["format_ol"],"y":"falsexam"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of the exam score on the online indicator over face-to-face and online students only."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"online_classroom","subset":"format_blended == 0","x":["format_ol"],"y":"falsexam"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"OLS of the exam score on the online indicator over face-to-face and online students only."},"model":"gemini-3.8-flash","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":2,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"correct":1.0},"provider":"gemini","reason":"","score":1.0,"split":"public","status":"passed","stopped":"answered","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path","agent_reachable","naive"],"target":"agent","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.352","task_sha256":"d08fe16e6851ae6ab50fe1d8a290a5183d0b3b7736c0924f5112f2083b9048ca","tools_called":["data.describe","infer.ols","infer.ols"],"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.352.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/qrdata_socsci.352.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/qrdata_socsci.352.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":73460,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":73460,"input_tokens":106030,"model_calls":5,"output_tokens":3259,"thought_tokens":2831,"turns":5}}
{"answer":"Based on a linear regression of total wage on years of education (`educ`) controlling for hours worked (`hours`), each additional year of education is associated with an expected increase in wage of 60.8777 (SE = 6.16757; 95% CI: [48.7738, 72.9817]). Evaluated relative to the baseline sample mean wage of 957.945, this corresponds to an expected increase of 6.36% (specifically, 6.35503%; 95% CI: [5.0915%, 7.61857%]) in hourly wage per additional year of education.\n\nFor comparison, a simple bivariate linear regression of wage on education without controlling for hours yields an increase of 60.2143 (SE = 6.15696; 95% CI: [48.1312, 72.2974]), which represents 6.29% (6.28578%; 95% CI: [5.02442%, 7.54713%]) of the baseline mean wage.\n\nRessalvas: The regression is estimated on observational cross-sectional data without controlling for other available confounders (such as ability/IQ, experience, or family background), so the estimate reflects an empirical association rather than a causal return to schooling. A linear level-level specification assumes a constant absolute increase per year of schooling; the percentage effect is evaluated at the sample mean rather than estimated directly via a log-linear model.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":187903,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":187903,"input_tokens":234317,"model_calls":10,"output_tokens":5766,"thought_tokens":4876,"turns":10}}],"caveats":["The regression is estimated on observational cross-sectional data without controlling for other available confounders (such as ability/IQ, experience, or family background), so the estimate reflects an empirical association rather than a causal return to schooling.","A linear level-level specification assumes a constant absolute increase per year of schooling; the percentage effect is evaluated at the sample mean rather than estimated directly via a log-linear model."],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"60.8777 in (0.051992, 0.055208)?","expected":[0.051992000000000003,0.055208],"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":60.8777,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.353","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.051992000000000003,0.055208],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_f86a6591","weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":93504.87933307886,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","figure_refs":["call_f86a6591:coef.educ","call_af8e73fd:effect","call_6afedbe4:coef.educ","call_78bcdb6e:effect"],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T12:43:38.259488Z","first_estimate":{"passed":false,"ref":"call_6afedbe4:coef.educ","tool":"infer.ols","value":60.21428323946884},"isolation":"pass","meta":{"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":4,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":null,"round_to":"nearest hundredth of a percent","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale (a '%' gold is a fraction to eval.py, as is a coefficient)"},"answer_percent":"%","cluster":"wage.csv","expected_tool":"infer.ols","family":"numerical","headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.educ"]},"naive":{"dataset":"wage","treatment":"educ","y":"wage"},"native":{"answer":"5.36%","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Regression analysis"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 5"},"native_id":353,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of log hourly wage on years of education; the coefficient is the proportional increase per year. Every row is used, as the question reads (the textbook drops rows with any missing column first; both readings fall inside the gold's interval)."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["wage_hourly"],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"OLS of log hourly wage on years of education; the coefficient is the proportional increase per year. Every row is used, as the question reads (the textbook drops rows with any missing column first; both readings fall inside the gold's interval)."},"model":"gemini-3.8-flash","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":3,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"correct":0.0},"provider":"gemini","reason":"","score":0.5,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path","naive"],"target":"agent","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.353","task_sha256":"0cc17eda904685ec6480fbd63d06099cb36d562efb2439aefcbadf106d3127a8","tools_called":["data.describe","data.describe","infer.ols","infer.ols","infer.ols","infer.ols","core.scale_effect","core.scale_effect"],"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":187903,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":187903,"input_tokens":234317,"model_calls":10,"output_tokens":5766,"thought_tokens":4876,"turns":10}}