{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"gov_transfers":{"description_shown":"Households near the income cutoff of Uruguay's PANES cash-transfer programme, the extract of the survey of Manacorda, Miguel and Vigorito (2011), 'Government Transfers and Political Support', distributed with the causaldata R package and used in chapter 20 of Huntington-Klein's 'The Effect': one row per household (1,948 rows), only households whose income measure is within 0.02 of the cutoff. Households below the cutoff were eligible for the transfers. Columns: rownames, the row number; Income_Centered, the household's income measure minus the eligibility cutoff (negative values are below the cutoff, hence eligible); Income_Below, minus Income_Centered, added by the task author: how far below the cutoff the household's income measure is (positive values are eligible); Education, average years of education of household members aged 16 and older (missing for some households); Age, average age of household members; Participation, 1 if the household participated in the transfer programme; Support, the household's support for the government (0, 0.5 or 1; higher means more support).","file_sha256":"51312ecd5b3cb22b5dc027966a81e0a8579f24a708ce4b476674fc527652ebd0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[{"args":{"args":{"column":"Income_Centered"},"name":"Income_Below","op":"negate"},"op":"derive"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Do government cash transfers buy political goodwill? In Uruguay's PANES programme, households qualified for monthly transfers when their income measure fell below an eligibility cutoff. Using the households near that cutoff, estimate the effect of receiving the transfers on the household's backing for the government.","question_sha256":"470c3dd6e3671d7d23881f094a8b4048a6869254bf8024ca27b5e34e42f4fd8d","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","task_sha256":"2088ef9191e276ab3bea233430136ae5e5f5e297bb8dd22a7e4c7f8513a71315","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.544254Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_68220b10","dataset_id":"gov_transfers","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"ee25bc8672392d74aa124b1f295a152c7535bd2d306ed08a52b235e4ddbe5113","frame_sha256_before":"2600b9da8866ad58c495eb606b025cf7957d0969e750a6a86969bcd03e8faa76","index":0,"rows_after":1948,"rows_before":1948,"run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":1,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.544254Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"column":"Income_Centered"},"name":"Income_Below","op":"negate"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_530931e7","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["f79db8e7d0f2344a2ac69fe37d92d10e6de19227444ace722cbf03c59ad388f2"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"6245061fc998ccc45082b0c8d59bdc474aa42a2c3c1d21e04e6e63ea81489aeb","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Table 20.1, column 'Quadratic': OLS of support on participation with a quadratic in centred income interacted with participation, on every household of the extract (all lie within 0.02 of the cutoff), unweighted. The treated side is below the cutoff, so the running variable is the declared negation Income_Below and treatment is Income_Below >= 0 (Participation equals that indicator on every row).","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"bandwidth":0.02,"cutoff":0,"dataset":"gov_transfers","kernel":"uniform","polynomial":2,"running":"Income_Below","y":"Support"},"llm_name":"infer__rdd","tool_id":"infer.rdd","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":2,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.553869Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":0.02,"cluster":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"gov_transfers","kernel":"uniform","level":0.95,"polynomial":2,"running":"Income_Below","subset":null,"y":"Support"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_170b1d94","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"62cdbe0860ad","dataset_digests":{"gov_transfers":"ee25bc8672392d74aa124b1f295a152c7535bd2d306ed08a52b235e4ddbe5113"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":11.406291974708438,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"0dcb54e7b203cfa5f80c2ff959f17a01d8a20892c274c8cdf90083936dc048f3","llm_name":"infer__rdd","output_digest":"0818e32fab29401f05dc2fbe337d459cb44360f85466b6b1f98d44db11c55459","rationale":"Table 20.1, column 'Quadratic': OLS of support on participation with a quadratic in centred income interacted with participation, on every household of the extract (all lie within 0.02 of the cutoff), unweighted. The treated side is below the cutoff, so the running variable is the declared negation Income_Below and treatment is Income_Below >= 0 (Participation equals that indicator on every row).","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff","every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff"],"call_id":"call_170b1d94","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada)","value":0.02},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_method","note":"","value":"user"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_left","note":"observations with positive weight below the cutoff","value":821},{"flag":false,"name":"n_right","note":"observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff","value":1127},{"flag":false,"name":"kernel","note":"","value":"uniform"},{"flag":false,"name":"polynomial","note":"","value":2},{"flag":true,"name":"bandwidth_sensitive","note":"the estimate at half or double the bandwidth falls outside the main interval: the result depends on the window","value":true},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"rows used to choose the bandwidth","value":1948},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.17837557417614058,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.007335107901467866,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.09285534103880423,"terms":[{"note":"janela (informada)","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.02},{"note":"","symbol":"n_esq","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es abaixo do limiar","value":821.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n_dir","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es acima do limiar","value":1127.0}],"text_pt":"Ajuste quadr\u00e1tico ponderado (kernel uniforme) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (informada); o efeito \u00e9 a diferen\u00e7a entre os dois ajustes no limiar.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.04363357378600273,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0019038887613385446}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03c4 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03c4","unit":"","value":0.09285534103880423},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.04363357378600273}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o normal vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"effect","label":"Jump in Support at the cutoff of Income_Below","se":0.04363357378600273,"unit":"","value":0.09285534103880423}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"sensitivity":[{"bandwidth":0.01,"ci_high":0.09793649228155744,"ci_low":-0.16157308291363565,"estimate":-0.031818295316039094,"multiplier":0.5,"n_left":400,"n_right":537,"se":0.06620263873269394},{"bandwidth":0.02,"ci_high":0.17837557417614058,"ci_low":0.007335107901467866,"estimate":0.09285534103880423,"multiplier":1.0,"n_left":821,"n_right":1127,"se":0.04363357378600273},{"bandwidth":0.04,"ci_high":0.17837557417614058,"ci_low":0.007335107901467866,"estimate":0.09285534103880423,"multiplier":2.0,"n_left":821,"n_right":1127,"se":0.04363357378600273}]},"tool":"infer.rdd","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"aaec48d87d6eb9330458d3018305bf2409afbff839724deaf2d213424c85676b","result_sha256":"68870848bc7c75ef6aaf29cf6f299bc254aac896676d945514af1968daa000c1","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":3,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.556645Z","tool_id":"infer.rdd","turn_id":"call_530931e7"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_5c894e44","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["f79db8e7d0f2344a2ac69fe37d92d10e6de19227444ace722cbf03c59ad388f2","b43b917d112153ce7a373a51ec82d23f592795502775fbc22279b2a03dbebd32","11f1581b9fe20ec94ba50a47206e002e72d6b64e19a354c68ea687592ae984f4"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"6245061fc998ccc45082b0c8d59bdc474aa42a2c3c1d21e04e6e63ea81489aeb","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09286.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_170b1d94:effect"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":4,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.568237Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_6670ad44","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,09286"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":5,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570014Z","turn_id":"call_5c894e44","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,09286.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_170b1d94","ci_high":0.17837557417614058,"ci_low":0.007335107901467866,"formatted":0.09285534103880423,"key":"effect","ref":"call_170b1d94:effect","se":0.04363357378600273,"tool_id":"infer.rdd","unit":"","value":0.09285534103880423},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_170b1d94:effect"],"run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":6,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":7,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"answer figure call_170b1d94:effect (infer.rdd)","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure","observed":"call_170b1d94:effect","passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":8,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"answer call is infer.rdd","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":"infer.rdd","passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":9,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"infer.rdd.y = 'Support'","expected":"Support","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"Support","passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":10,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"infer.rdd.running = 'Income_Below'","expected":"Income_Below","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"Income_Below","passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":11,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"infer.rdd.cutoff = 0.0","expected":0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":0.0,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":12,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"infer.rdd.y = 'Support'","expected":"Support","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"Support","passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":13,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":7,"detail":"infer.rdd.running = 'Income_Below'","expected":"Income_Below","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"Income_Below","passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":14,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":8,"detail":"infer.rdd.cutoff = 0.0","expected":0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":0.0,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":15,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":9,"detail":"infer.rdd.kernel = 'uniform'","expected":"uniform","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":"uniform","passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":16,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":10,"detail":"infer.rdd.polynomial = 2","expected":2,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":2,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":17,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":11,"detail":"821 vs 821","expected":821,"failure_class":null,"kind":"diagnostic","observed":821,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)"},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":18,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":12,"detail":"1127 vs 1127","expected":1127,"failure_class":null,"kind":"diagnostic","observed":1127,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)"},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":19,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":13,"detail":"0.09285534104 vs 0.09285534103880216","expected":0.09285534103880216,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.09285534103880423,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.software","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.363357378599472e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":20,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":14,"detail":"0.04363357379 vs 0.04363357378599472","expected":0.04363357378599472,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.04363357378600273,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.software","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.363357378599472e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":21,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":15,"detail":"0.09285534104 vs 0.093","expected":0.093,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.09285534103880423,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.paper","tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.000500001,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"published_cell d=3"},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":22,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":16,"detail":"0.04363357379 vs 0.044","expected":0.044,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.04363357378600273,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.paper","tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.000500001,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"published_cell d=3 (the SE as printed)"},"trace_call_id":"call_170b1d94","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df","seq":23,"task_id":"paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c1.design","timestamp":"2026-10-15T16:57:56.570251Z"}
