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{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.educ = 0,05295. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.0529 in (0.051992, 0.055208)?","expected":[0.051992000000000003,0.055208],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.0529,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.353","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.051992000000000003,0.055208],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_f7c76028","weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":null,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":330.06841712631285,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":null,"figure_refs":["call_f7c76028:coef.educ"],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.239821Z","first_estimate":{"passed":true,"ref":"call_f7c76028:coef.educ","tool":"infer.ols","value":0.052947240818763425},"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:wage_hourly"],"dtypes":{"wage":{"educ":"int64","wage":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["wage"],"treatment":["educ"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":4,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":null,"round_to":"nearest hundredth of a percent","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale (a '%' gold is a fraction to eval.py, as is a coefficient)"},"answer_percent":"%","cluster":"wage.csv","expected_tool":"infer.ols","family":"numerical","headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.educ"]},"naive":{"dataset":"wage","treatment":"educ","y":"wage"},"native":{"answer":"5.36%","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Regression analysis"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 5"},"native_id":353,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of log hourly wage on years of education; the coefficient is the proportional increase per year. Every row is used, as the question reads (the textbook drops rows with any missing column first; both readings fall inside the gold's interval)."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["wage_hourly"],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"OLS of log hourly wage on years of education; the coefficient is the proportional increase per year. Every row is used, as the question reads (the textbook drops rows with any missing column first; both readings fall inside the gold's interval)."},"model":"reference","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":1,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"correct":1.0},"provider":"scripted","reason":"","score":1.0,"split":"public","status":"passed","stopped":"answered","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path","naive"],"target":"agent","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.353","task_sha256":"c98635e90f6c8988429d51aaf5e4fa47c3621cb4ecb115e2eaa4036c9eeae905","tools_called":["infer.ols"],"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/qrdata_socsci.353.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.educ = 0,04115. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.354.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.0411 in (0.039867, 0.042333)?","expected":[0.03986700000000001,0.042333],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.0411,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.354","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.03986700000000001,0.042333],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_eb7b0866","weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":null,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":333.3047078922391,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":null,"figure_refs":["call_eb7b0866:coef.educ"],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.243159Z","first_estimate":{"passed":true,"ref":"call_eb7b0866:coef.educ","tool":"infer.ols","value":0.041147191010061784},"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:wage_hourly","needs_spec:controls"],"dtypes":{"wage":{"educ":"int64","wage":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["wage"],"treatment":["educ"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":4,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":null,"round_to":"nearest hundredth of a percent","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale (a '%' gold is a fraction to eval.py, as is a coefficient)"},"answer_percent":"%","cluster":"wage.csv","expected_tool":"infer.ols","family":"numerical","headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.educ"]},"naive":{"dataset":"wage","treatment":"educ","y":"wage"},"native":{"answer":"4.11%","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Regression analysis"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 5"},"native_id":354,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"controls":["IQ","exper","tenure","age","married","black","south","urban","sibs","brthord","meduc","feduc"],"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of log hourly wage on education with every other column of wage.csv as a control, wage and hours excepted because they build the outcome (Brave and True, ch. 5)."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"controls":["IQ","exper","tenure","age","married","black","south","urban","sibs","brthord","meduc","feduc"],"dataset":"wage_hourly","x":["educ"],"y":"lhwage"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":["needs_spec:controls"],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{"controls":"take all provided variables into consideration"},"reference_datasets":["wage_hourly"],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"OLS of log hourly wage on education with every other column of wage.csv as a control, wage and hours excepted because they build the outcome (Brave and True, ch. 5)."},"model":"reference","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":1,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"correct":1.0},"provider":"scripted","reason":"","score":1.0,"split":"public","status":"passed","stopped":"answered","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path","naive"],"target":"agent","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.354","task_sha256":"80dcd0051d0070467a700f8e30e1a7c676972c495dcca8de56ca9079d03bc42d","tools_called":["infer.ols"],"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.354.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/qrdata_socsci.354.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/qrdata_socsci.354.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.T = 4,904. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.355.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"4.9 in (4.753, 5.047)?","expected":[4.753,5.047000000000001],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":4.9,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.355","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[4.753,5.047000000000001],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_27cd9497","weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":null,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":327.03666598536074,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":null,"figure_refs":["call_27cd9497:coef.T"],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.237067Z","first_estimate":{"passed":true,"ref":"call_27cd9497:coef.T","tool":"infer.ols","value":4.904380116430221},"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:wage_grad12","needs_spec:treatment_definition"],"dtypes":{"wage":{"educ":"int64","wage":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["wage"],"treatment":["educ"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":2,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":null,"round_to":"nearest hundredth","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale"},"cluster":"wage.csv","expected_tool":"infer.ols","family":"numerical","gold_defect":"treatment coding: the question asks the effect of graduating 12th grade (educ >= 12); the gold matches educ > 12","gold_deviation":{"evidence":"The question asks the effect of graduating 12th grade (educ >= 12: 4.440); the gold 4.90 matches the textbook coding educ > 12 (4.904). Found by an independent statsmodels fit at the B-join review, after the scripted dry runs; the reference path keeps the textbook coding it was committed with.","kind":"unverified"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.T"]},"naive":{"dataset":"wage","treatment":"educ","y":"wage"},"native":{"answer":"4.90","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Regression analysis"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 6"},"native_id":355,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_grad12","x":["T"],"y":"hwage"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of hourly wage on T = 1 when educ > 12, the textbook's coding of graduating 12th grade."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"wage_grad12","x":["T"],"y":"hwage"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":["needs_spec:treatment_definition"],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{"treatment_definition":"the effect of graduating 12th grade"},"reference_datasets":["wage_grad12"],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"OLS of hourly wage on T = 1 when educ > 12, the textbook's coding of graduating 12th grade."},"model":"reference","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":1,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"correct":1.0},"provider":"scripted","reason":"","score":1.0,"split":"public","status":"passed","stopped":"answered","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path","naive"],"target":"agent","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.355","task_sha256":"0c3112ac2d4934224c9c0782d6eaf1885d387b4c2953ffbb7fc91c99b53bf10d","tools_called":["infer.ols"],"trace":"traces/qrdata_socsci.355.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/qrdata_socsci.355.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/qrdata_socsci.355.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":2,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":2}}
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