{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"app_engagement_push":{"description_shown":"A study is conducted to measure the effect of a marketing push on user engagement, specifically in-app purchases. Some customers who were assigned to receive the push are not receiving it, because they probably have an older phone that doesn\u2019t support the kind of push the marketing team designed.\nThe dataset app_engagement_push.csv contains records for 10,000 random customers. Each record includes whether an in-app purchase was made (in_app_purchase), if a marketing push was assigned to the user (push_assigned), and if the marketing push was successfully delivered (push_delivered).","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) of receiving the marketing push on in-app purchases, as estimated using linear regression and instrumental variable, rounded to two decimal places?","question_sha256":"88d15e0618a3598b5bbcb55bc09fdb562b7809e1994097c63801c17942e99245","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","task_sha256":"d5d526a14bb17b904ce12bf7e42b676acb9f9812352651d0b81eb8c6f10f0e11","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.309536Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_5f7d8e1b","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["84b871501bf3d91e3fffe3ef4c627ca71b64b304ef51f20b150e0117cd62bca3"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5b87ab9dab27d5dcf4b8261bd891becf1895ac226d50a4f0e5940d3db97312ad","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"2SLS of in-app purchases on delivery instrumented by assignment: the LATE.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"app_engagement_push","endog":["push_delivered"],"instruments":["push_assigned"],"y":"in_app_purchase"},"llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":1,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.309536Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"app_engagement_push","endog":["push_delivered"],"exog":[],"instruments":["push_assigned"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"in_app_purchase"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_fdab1841","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"62cdbe0860ad","dataset_digests":{"app_engagement_push":"71f85053598599daf2121fc809836892f772252acf99d24886da3bea76d22aeb"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":6.888957927003503,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"f1be834ca9b722bf30e2cb0906807d8d54262186a83ae5bbbe11e14d0800127f","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","output_digest":"b19344d80561fd362e1c8ccd33ac1c11557958bd0e3a430b72e89cb0512230f0","rationale":"2SLS of in-app purchases on delivery instrumented by assignment: the LATE.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_fdab1841","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.push_delivered","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for push_delivered (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))","value":12556.815498423806},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.push_delivered","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.5623437420594468},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":10000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":4.698385192093337,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.8892950668815747,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":3.2938401294874557,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":2.363595172828661},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":0.717580416750961}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de push_assigned na forma reduzida (in_app_purchase sobre push_assigned) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (push_delivered sobre push_assigned).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.7165310377383689,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.5134167280424239}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":3.2938401294874557},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9602012873568369},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.7165310377383689}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 9998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.push_delivered","label":"2SLS effect of push_delivered on in_app_purchase","se":0.7165310377383689,"unit":"","value":3.2938401294874557}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":70.00206428732744,"ci_low":68.58128552481412,"coef":69.29167490607078,"p":0.0,"se":0.3624063435926813,"t":191.19884662932293,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":4.698385192093337,"ci_low":1.8892950668815747,"coef":3.2938401294874557,"p":4.340276866877566e-06,"se":0.7165310377383689,"t":4.59692596134287,"term":"push_delivered"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":0.7301329532128219,"ci_low":0.7050278802891,"coef":0.717580416750961,"endog":"push_delivered","instrument":"push_assigned","p":0.0,"se":0.006403697693101192,"t":112.05719744141297}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":3.384745946951474,"ci_low":1.3424443987058479,"coef":2.363595172828661,"instrument":"push_assigned","p":5.768223866079881e-06,"se":0.5209417934317078,"t":4.537157898694326}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"bb495fb0a1634ad616df2ba998245103236e4176900dfdb2b314d96beca06b9e","result_sha256":"0c983d22c46462b16233374f8ce4b76fe915a1f24bd6e36ce66081f2394c9d97","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.312330Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":"call_5f7d8e1b"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.push_delivered = 3,294. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_fdab1841","ci_high":4.698385192093337,"ci_low":1.8892950668815747,"formatted":3.29,"key":"coef.push_delivered","ref":"call_fdab1841:coef.push_delivered","se":0.7165310377383689,"tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","unit":"","value":3.2938401294874557},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_fdab1841:coef.push_delivered"],"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.321191Z"}
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