{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"social":{"description_shown":"Three social scientists conducted an RCT in which they investigated whether social pressure within neighborhoods increases participation. Specifically, during a primary election in the state of Michigan, they randomly assigned registered voters to receive different get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages and examined whether sending postcards with these messages increased turnout. The researchers exploited the fact that the turnout of individual voters is public information in the United States. The GOTV message of particular interest was designed to induce social pressure by telling voters that after the election their neighbors would be informed about whether they voted in the election or not. The researchers hypothesized that such a namingand-shaming GOTV strategy would increase participation.\nThere are three treatment groups: voters who receive either the social pressure message, the civic duty message, or the Hawthorne effect message. The Hawthorne effect refers to the phenomenon where study subjects behave differently because they know they are being observed by researchers. The experiment also has a control group which consists of those voters receiving no message. The researchers randomly assigned each voter to one of the four groups and examined whether the voter turnout was different across the groups.\n\nThe data is in the file social.csv.\nVariable Description\nhhsize: household size of the voter\nmessages: GOTV messages the voter received (Civic Duty, Control, Neighbors, Hawthorne)\nsex: sex of the voter (female or male)\nyearofbirth: year of birth of the voter\nprimary2004: whether the voter voted in the 2004 primary election (1=voted, 0=abstained)\nprimary2006: whether the voter turned out in the 2006 primary election (1=voted, 0=abstained)","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"social_neighbors":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"query":"messages in ['Neighbors', 'Control']"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"messages","value":"Neighbors"},"name":"neighbors","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["neighbors","primary2004"]},"name":"neighbors_x_primary2004","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the difference in the average causal effect of the Neighbors message on whether the voter voted in the 2006 primary election between those who voted in the 2004 primary election and those who did not? Please round the result to the nearest thousandth.","question_sha256":"082ad9fea0a2033d3559d487e5b85b805769f9ae0b3a3943e0c746e82548d670","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","task_sha256":"0d6fed411df33899ba283141369fa14d1486a9ca0dcdeeb741fd068c94bd8721","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.776417Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_d88316a0","dataset_id":"social_neighbors","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"a47a1a859d3e8caf3829ad96566590edafce57ba075f86c765d0a6e12d3eff23","frame_sha256_before":"cbf1b6bbe51778feeaba3bbaf6f5f8229d4e1cb0052fe7e65af0fcc6beddfb69","index":0,"rows_after":229444,"rows_before":305866,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":1,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.776417Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"messages in ['Neighbors', 'Control']"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_c8945116","dataset_id":"social_neighbors","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"2040421ac698a41bd889e0586cdc9a490f5d80f34f7965b1ab800384812605cb","frame_sha256_before":"a47a1a859d3e8caf3829ad96566590edafce57ba075f86c765d0a6e12d3eff23","index":1,"rows_after":229444,"rows_before":229444,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":2,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.839587Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"messages","value":"Neighbors"},"name":"neighbors","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_cb8a7d9d","dataset_id":"social_neighbors","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"730e68d0092da53417e6bc6f3cfcee61fbfea065f642be09ca39cc22dfcbaa37","frame_sha256_before":"2040421ac698a41bd889e0586cdc9a490f5d80f34f7965b1ab800384812605cb","index":2,"rows_after":229444,"rows_before":229444,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":3,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:11.882898Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["neighbors","primary2004"]},"name":"neighbors_x_primary2004","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_44397d39","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["d3bc1df53b6b6530f937bbf69674049bb52a706c335f6eb8503a26c03a2a1eb6"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d5525ac25de7909af6e009cf8da1ab2d1edcca13129d516118c846858017fd52","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Over the Neighbors and Control groups, the interaction of the Neighbors message with 2004 turnout: the Neighbors effect among 2004 voters minus the effect among 2004 abstainers.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"controls":["neighbors","primary2004"],"dataset":"social_neighbors","x":["neighbors_x_primary2004"],"y":"primary2006"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":4,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.008922Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":["neighbors","primary2004"],"dataset":"social_neighbors","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["neighbors_x_primary2004"],"y":"primary2006"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_3b28e335","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"62cdbe0860ad","dataset_digests":{"social_neighbors":"730e68d0092da53417e6bc6f3cfcee61fbfea065f642be09ca39cc22dfcbaa37"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":22.547208005562425,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"af79e93124d85a4b439b802339c65d007f61f3a9ec600ea1038d26a239937539","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"8de689ac52a6c10d6ca13242c70e0ab2918aee6cce2ebbd19cb234e657a34b5e","rationale":"Over the Neighbors and Control groups, the interaction of the Neighbors message with 2004 turnout: the Neighbors effect among 2004 voters minus the effect among 2004 abstainers.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_3b28e335","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":229444},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":4},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.03077585240084424},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":229440},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.03798604645607311,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.016472111417622844,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.027229078936847978,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":229444.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":4.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de neighbors_x_primary2004 na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de primary2006.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.0054883206313251455,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":3.0121663352229244e-05}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.027229078936847978},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9599743239905942},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.0054883206313251455}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 229440 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.neighbors_x_primary2004","label":"Coefficient on neighbors_x_primary2004 in the regression of primary2006","se":0.0054883206313251455,"unit":"","value":0.027229078936847978}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.2395714778936647,"ci_low":0.23464831439974046,"coef":0.23710989614670258,"p":0.0,"se":0.001255925507202688,"t":188.79296167398925,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.03798604645607311,"ci_low":0.016472111417622844,"coef":0.027229078936847978,"p":7.008118197841256e-07,"se":0.0054883206313251455,"t":4.961277003649395,"term":"neighbors_x_primary2004"},{"ci_high":0.07578298844925509,"ci_low":0.06280936079091425,"coef":0.06929617462008467,"p":2.9992603358974017e-97,"se":0.0033096422487632316,"t":20.937663170688527,"term":"neighbors"},{"ci_high":0.15293170284357596,"ci_low":0.14445844190750565,"coef":0.1486950723755408,"p":0.0,"se":0.0021615744737967743,"t":68.79016854522716,"term":"primary2004"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"8dfdefe3116cc5b9a778ad3daa08d1118b01e0d338ebbad2380535ac41352f4e","result_sha256":"a977b9e3d9d89440efa28bb80e4040512f35b98a98bd5d75490ecd496b58f752","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":5,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.011515Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_44397d39"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_8b734afa","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["d3bc1df53b6b6530f937bbf69674049bb52a706c335f6eb8503a26c03a2a1eb6","57506878bae5179b674b39c7f7758c3e43acc8d6650b278e221d18464a7e64ca","fa892f82883ceb5323095cf7e5486ad586c90ddd07a60df578f0f9e6575055d7"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d5525ac25de7909af6e009cf8da1ab2d1edcca13129d516118c846858017fd52","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 = 0,02723. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":6,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.034261Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_f55a7d96","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,02723"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":7,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.035587Z","turn_id":"call_8b734afa","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.neighbors_x_primary2004 = 0,02723. Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_3b28e335","ci_high":0.03798604645607311,"ci_low":0.016472111417622844,"formatted":0.027,"key":"coef.neighbors_x_primary2004","ref":"call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004","se":0.0054883206313251455,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.027229078936847978},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_3b28e335:coef.neighbors_x_primary2004"],"run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":8,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.035757Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":9,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.035757Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.027 in (0.02619, 0.02781)?","expected":[0.026189999999999998,0.02781],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.027,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.399","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.026189999999999998,0.02781],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_3b28e335","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3","seq":10,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.399","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:12.035757Z"}
