{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"pres08":{"description_shown":"Regression towards the mean represents an empirical phenomenon where an observation with a value of the predictor further away from the distribution\u2019s mean tends to have a value of an outcome variable closer to that mean. This tendency can be explained by chance alone.\n\nWe will examine whether or not the US presidential election data exhibit the regression towards the mean phenomenon. To do this, we use Obama\u2019s vote share in the 2008 election to predict his vote share in his 2012 reelection.\n\nThe CSV data file pres08.csv contains the election results by state of the 2008 US presidential election.\nVariable Description\nstate: abbreviated name of the state\nstate.name: unabbreviated name of the state\nObama: Obama\u2019s vote share (percentage)\nMcCain: McCain\u2019s vote share (percentage)\nEV: number of Electoral College votes for the state\n\nIn addition, we have the CSV file pres12.csv, which contains the election results by state of the 2012 US presidential election.\nVariable Description\nstate: abbreviated name of the state\nObama: Obama\u2019s vote share (percentage)\nRomney: Romney\u2019s vote share (percentage)\nEV: number of Electoral College votes for the state","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"pres12":{"description_shown":"Data file pres12.csv of this question; the question's data description is the description of dataset 'pres08'.","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"We standardize vote shares across elections by computing their z-scores so that we can measure Obama\u2019s electoral performance in each state relative to his average performance of that year. That is, we subtract the mean from Obama\u2019s vote share in each election and then divide it by the standard deviation.\nWhat is the proportion of states where Obama received a greater share of standardized votes in 2012 than he did in 2008, in the top quartile of Obama\u2019s 2008 (standardized) vote share? Please round to the nearest thousandth.","question_sha256":"0ebd13841a1a707e7637ab8001d754f06530884ff4a3afe847f523c8879e308b","run_id":"20261015T170025Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-baseline-2a40bf","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.395","task_sha256":"89737815867b0dcf4b3be143f2e4f206dda37a17233233614bb9a134d02ce269","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:26.455796Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_3def4436","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4c79c216fae647f816ee4847bbb0bb8cbea1c033c90b52b4850b8ebc2642dc3c"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"3f79b2fa2bf5f8f6468425986a7e8f23f42a6bc87680fa073287313d49aac8db","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170025Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-baseline-2a40bf","seq":1,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.395","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:26.455796Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_11c780a6","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170025Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-baseline-2a40bf","seq":2,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.395","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:26.457691Z","turn_id":"call_3def4436","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T170025Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-baseline-2a40bf","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.395","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:26.457806Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.44717,0.47483000000000003],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.395","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.44717,0.47483000000000003],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170025Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-baseline-2a40bf","seq":5,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.395","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:26.457806Z"}