{"args":{},"checks":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_backed","min_lre":null,"note":"every number of the answer is stated by a tool call","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":null,"value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"answer_call","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":true,"key":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","min_lre":null,"note":"QRData eval.py: strictly inside gold \u00b1 3% (a '%' gold divided by 100), on the answer figure after meta.answer_format","open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.370","table":null,"tool":null,"value":[0.097,0.10300000000000001],"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"datasets":{"drinking":{"columns":null,"description":"To estimate the impacts of alcohol on death, we could use the fact that legal drinking age imposes a discontinuity on nature. In the US, those just under 21 years don\u2019t drink (or drink much less) while those just older than 21 do drink. The csv file drinking.csv contains mortality data aggregated by age. Each row is the average age of a group of people and the average mortality by all causes (all), by moving vehicle accident (mva) and by suicide (suicide).","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"CC BY-NC 4.0","member":"data/drinking.csv","object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","transforms":[],"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/data.zip"},"drinking_log":{"columns":null,"description":"drinking.csv with log_all = log(all)","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"CC BY-NC 4.0","member":"data/drinking.csv","object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"reference","sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","transforms":[{"args":{"args":{"column":"all"},"name":"log_all","op":"log"},"op":"derive"}],"url":"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/data.zip"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"qrdata_socsci.370","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:drinking_log","needs_spec:outcome_scale"],"dtypes":{},"named":{},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"abs","round_to":2,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_format_from":{"figure_transform":"magnitude of change","round_to":"nearest hundredth","unit_scale":"1.0: an estimator's figure is on the gold's own scale"},"cluster":"drinking.csv","expected_tool":"infer.rdd","family":"numerical","gold_defect":"scale: the question asks the change in deaths; the gold is the jump in log deaths","gold_deviation":{"evidence":"The question asks the change in the number of deaths; the local linear jump of `all` at 21 on ages 20-22 is 9.75 deaths per 100,000, while the gold 0.10 equals the jump in log(all) (0.0998). Found by an independent statsmodels fit before any MAGI tool ran.","kind":"unverified"},"headline_keys":{"infer.rdd":["effect"]},"native":{"answer":"0.10","keywords":["Causality","Observational data","Difference in differences"],"multiple_choices":null,"question_type":"numerical","reference":"Causal Inference for the Brave and True 16"},"native_id":370,"reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Caminho de refer\u00eancia inferido \u00e0 m\u00e3o.","steps":[{"args":{"bandwidth":1,"cutoff":21,"dataset":"drinking_log","kernel":"uniform","polynomial":1,"running":"agecell","y":"log_all"},"tool":"infer.rdd","why":"Sharp RD at age 21 on ages 20 to 22 (a uniform kernel of bandwidth 1, both ends inclusive), local linear on each side, on log mortality: the gold is the jump in log(all), not in all."}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"bandwidth":1,"cutoff":21,"dataset":"drinking_log","kernel":"uniform","polynomial":1,"running":"agecell","y":"log_all"},"tool":"infer.rdd"}],"needs":["needs_spec:outcome_scale"],"provenance":"hand_inferred","quotes":{"outcome_scale":"the magnitude of change in the number of deaths"},"reference_datasets":["drinking_log"],"source_id":null},"reference_why":"Sharp RD at age 21 on ages 20 to 22 (a uniform kernel of bandwidth 1, both ends inclusive), local linear on each side, on log mortality: the gold is the jump in log(all), not in all."},"question":"How much is the effect of alcohol consumption on death of all causes at 21 years? Please only consider data from people that are no older than 22 years and no younger than 20 years. Please answer with the magnitude of change in the number of deaths and round to the nearest hundredth.","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["qrdata.gold.370","qrdata.eval_py"],"split":"public","suite":"qrdata_socsci","tags":["econ-bench","external","qrdata","brave_and_true","numerical","reference_path"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"QRData gold: benchmark/QRData.json item 370 at de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed"}