{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"app_engagement_push":{"description_shown":"A study is conducted to measure the effect of a marketing push on user engagement, specifically in-app purchases. Some customers who were assigned to receive the push are not receiving it, because they probably have an older phone that doesn\u2019t support the kind of push the marketing team designed.\nThe dataset app_engagement_push.csv contains records for 10,000 random customers. Each record includes whether an in-app purchase was made (in_app_purchase), if a marketing push was assigned to the user (push_assigned), and if the marketing push was successfully delivered (push_delivered).","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) of receiving the marketing push on in-app purchases, as estimated using linear regression and instrumental variable, rounded to two decimal places?","question_sha256":"88d15e0618a3598b5bbcb55bc09fdb562b7809e1994097c63801c17942e99245","run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","task_sha256":"d5d526a14bb17b904ce12bf7e42b676acb9f9812352651d0b81eb8c6f10f0e11","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.765177Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e9fa85b6","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["84b871501bf3d91e3fffe3ef4c627ca71b64b304ef51f20b150e0117cd62bca3"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5b87ab9dab27d5dcf4b8261bd891becf1895ac226d50a4f0e5940d3db97312ad","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"app_engagement_push","x":["push_delivered"],"y":"in_app_purchase"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":1,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.765177Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"app_engagement_push","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["push_delivered"],"y":"in_app_purchase"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_c0fe30a3","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"62cdbe0860ad","dataset_digests":{"app_engagement_push":"71f85053598599daf2121fc809836892f772252acf99d24886da3bea76d22aeb"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.7305830735713243,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"be1241127a6259f2b74ee659ff0262f755d69f6c28bd015c5c21fb8903fa7f87","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"fb45325b3708fdbd809e4770c30ebd6f6a784834c0211519d9691354b6cacceb","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_c0fe30a3","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":10000},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.06539593852843262},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":9998},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":14.96683830730506,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":12.896040077140846,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":13.931439192222953,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":10000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de push_delivered na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de in_app_purchase.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.52821060865553,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.2790064470962455}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":13.931439192222953},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9602012873568369},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.52821060865553}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 9998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.push_delivered","label":"Coefficient on push_delivered in the regression of in_app_purchase","se":0.52821060865553,"unit":"","value":13.931439192222953}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":66.131290962787,"ci_low":64.90574607425003,"coef":65.51851851851852,"p":0.0,"se":0.3126068981899111,"t":209.58756475909726,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":14.96683830730506,"ci_low":12.896040077140846,"coef":13.931439192222953,"p":2.9108394610124003e-148,"se":0.52821060865553,"t":26.37478112695058,"term":"push_delivered"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"73729f37d710022f000fd675bfff48627c0e733dc59a1d2b58b7c8dfbedf89a4","result_sha256":"97b0b719e309bb7c263988f89b77b22507025a6a1bfbf3e416d3f130b72746a2","run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.767630Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_e9fa85b6"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.push_delivered = 13,93.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_c0fe30a3","ci_high":14.96683830730506,"ci_low":12.896040077140846,"formatted":13.93,"key":"coef.push_delivered","ref":"call_c0fe30a3:coef.push_delivered","se":0.52821060865553,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":13.931439192222953},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_c0fe30a3:coef.push_delivered"],"run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.772148Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"13.93 in (3.1913, 3.3887)?","expected":[3.1913,3.3887],"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":13.93,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"qrdata.gold.363","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[3.1913,3.3887],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":true,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_c0fe30a3","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":7,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.363","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.772148Z"}