{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"smoking2":{"description_shown":"To estimate the effect of cigarette taxation on its consumption, data from cigarette sales were collected and analyzed across 39 states in the United States from the years 1970 to 2000. Proposition 99, a Tobacco Tax and Health Protection Act passed in California in 1988, imposed a 25-cent per pack state excise tax on tobacco cigarettes and implemented additional restrictions, including the ban on cigarette vending machines in public areas accessible by juveniles and a ban on the individual sale of single cigarettes. Revenue generated was allocated for environmental and health care programs along with anti-tobacco advertising. We aim to determine if the imposition of this tax and the subsequent regulations led to a reduction in cigarette sales. The data is in the CSV file smoking2.csv.","file_sha256":"3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the Average Treatment Effect on the treated (ATT) of Proposition 99 on cigarette sales, as estimated by the synthetic control approach? Please round the final answer to the nearest hundredth. Do not consider variables other than year, state, cigsale, california, and after_treatment. The answer is positive if the proposition increases the sale.","question_sha256":"3658391c4d306320f3cc43e123cee48593fc329c560d592a3222fcc7a3575aad","run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.374","task_sha256":"da2c8086985d66c6759bafa177335c50cabfc5dd260d41104c8e373c3bb2f3cc","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.970664Z"}
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{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"smoking2","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["california"],"y":"cigsale"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_4cc81229","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"62cdbe0860ad","dataset_digests":{"smoking2":"d54b84cb5b42c225732a5e4ae3b893195557b7a9df43e8a26093cf7beb0601ff"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":1.6405829228460789,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"1b74d2a86587c16f764e26ace74a3aa0c4a559bc9cfcb1d19d92ce05fe3b8308","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"5e512955791a7d9f1a067c1c4805d2f0b6e13015aef59d9a49db51e12aecd3d7","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_4cc81229","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":1209},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.014491822167306823},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":1207},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-14.369721901392372,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-35.52178904747527,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-24.945755474433824,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":1209.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de california na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de cigsale.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":5.390623666399409,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":29.05882351274541}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-24.945755474433824},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9619313510908774},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":5.390623666399409}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 1207 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.california","label":"Coefficient on california in the regression of cigsale","se":5.390623666399409,"unit":"","value":-24.945755474433824}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":121.3973657242941,"ci_low":117.66833882218256,"coef":119.53285227323833,"p":0.0,"se":0.9503459180766249,"t":125.77825610611039,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-14.369721901392372,"ci_low":-35.52178904747527,"coef":-24.945755474433824,"p":4.098267105255285e-06,"se":5.390623666399409,"t":-4.627619551690201,"term":"california"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"7a586b263d98f64cb7f6b53d22cba5b0ae91343c7b1c3c6f3da11a58e9f21145","result_sha256":"e8bad00a57335eee012e2986260ba0e7b18d6e668e53d555a7d073344381db30","run_id":"20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"qrdata_socsci.374","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:00:37.972996Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_58022aea"}
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