{
  "citation": "Sawarni, Tan & Syrgkanis, CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation, arXiv 2602.20571v3 (2026-09-27), GPT-5.3 baseline",
  "deviation_evidence": null,
  "doi": null,
  "excerpt": "Estimate Within gold CI 83.3 %",
  "independent": null,
  "item_set": "different",
  "kind": "leaderboard",
  "known_deviation": null,
  "licence": "arXiv non-exclusive licence (the paper); numbers quoted as facts",
  "locator": "Table 5, Estimation Metrics, row 'Estimate Within gold CI'",
  "metric": "estimate_within_solution_ci",
  "n_items": 174,
  "page": null,
  "read_copy_sha256": "c8e02956503d112c9d8883e1816d155a73f14daa8a12d2a122b9dfc6d5fbfa35",
  "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15",
  "se": null,
  "se_as_published": null,
  "source_id": "crb_papers.leaderboard.gpt53.estimate_within_solution_ci",
  "tolerance_reason": null,
  "units": "share of queries",
  "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2602.20571v3",
  "value": 0.833,
  "value_as_published": "83.3 %",
  "verified_by": "primary_source",
  "verified_note": "GPT-5.3 with reasoning, one run per query, writing and executing Python in a code interpreter on the full CSV (not tool calling); all 174 queries of both groups (research papers and textbooks), so a different item set from this suite's 115 research-paper items: shown beside ours, never differenced. The paper does not say whether the evaluator's --auto-rescale was on for these numbers."
}