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|\n| hs_elections_this_year | Indicator that the state held house elections in this year |\n| sen_elections_this_year | Indicator that the state held senate elections in this year |\n| gov_party | Party of the sitting governor (e.g., D/R) |\n| sen_dem_prop_all_centered | Democratic seat share in the state senate, centered |\n| hs_dem_prop_all_centered | Democratic seat share in the state house, centered |\n| house_bins | Time-period bin label for house analyses (four-era scheme) |\n| senate_bins | Time-period bin label for senate analyses (three-era scheme) |\n| StPO | State postal abbreviation (duplicate) |\n| Year | Calendar year (duplicate) |\n| StateHouseDivergence | Ideological distance between Democratic and Republican medians in the state house |\n| StateSenateDivergence | Ideological distance between Democratic and Republican medians in the state senate |\n| DemControl | Share of major state institutions (governor, house, senate) held by Democrats |\n| MassPartisanDivergence | Distance between average Democratic and Republican identifiers\u2019 economic policy views in the state |\n| Era4 | Four-era categorical label |\n| Era3 | Three-era categorical label |\n| StateHouseDivergence_L1 | One-year lag of StateHouseDivergence |\n| StateSenateDivergence_L1 | One-year lag of StateSenateDivergence |\n| MassPartisanDivergence_L1 | One-year lag of MassPartisanDivergence |\n| MassPartisanDivergence_L2 | Two-year lag of MassPartisanDivergence |\n| Policy_L1 | One-year lag of Policy |\n| Policy_L2 | Two-year lag of Policy |\n| Policy_L3 | Three-year lag of Policy |\n| Policy_L4 | Four-year lag of Policy |\n| DemControl_L1 | One-year lag of DemControl |\n| DemControl_L2 | Two-year lag of DemControl |\n| Policy_D1 | One-year change in Policy |\n| Policy_D2 | Two-year change in Policy |\n| Policy_D3 | Three-year change in Policy |\n| Policy_D4 | Four-year change in Policy |\n| hs_cont_alt | - |\n| sen_cont_alt | - |\n| South11 | Indicator for the 11 former Confederate states |\n| StateLegDivergence | Ideological distance between party medians in the combined state legislature |\n| StateLegDivergence_L1 | One-year lag of StateLegDivergence |\n| DemGov | Indicator that the governor is a Democrat |\n| DemPropGov0 | Democratic two-party vote share in the most recent gubernatorial election |\n| DemMarginGov | Democratic two-party vote margin in the gubernatorial election |\n| DemWinGov | Indicator that the Democrat won the gubernatorial election |\n| DemSeatShareHouse | Democratic seat share in the state house |\n| DemSeatShareSenate | Democratic seat share in the state senate |\n| DemControlHouse | Indicator that Democrats hold a majority in the state house |\n| DemControlSenate | Indicator that Democrats hold a majority in the state senate |\n| GovLib | Policy liberalism series aligned to gubernatorial election timing |\n| GovLibL1 | One-year lag of GovLib |\n| GovLibL2 | Two-year lag of GovLib |\n| GovLibL3 | Three-year lag of GovLib |\n| GovLibL4 | Four-year lag of GovLib |\n| GovLibL12 | Twelve-year lag of GovLib |\n| GovLibP1 | One-year lead of GovLib |\n| GovLibP2 | Two-year lead of GovLib |\n| GovLibP3 | Three-year lead of GovLib |\n| GovLibP4 | Four-year lead of GovLib |\n| GovLibP12 | Twelve-year lead of GovLib |\n| GovLibD1 | One-year change in GovLib |\n| GovLibD2 | Two-year change in GovLib |\n| GovLibD3 | Three-year change in GovLib |\n| GovLibD4 | Four-year change in GovLib |\n| GovLibD12 | Twelve-year change in GovLib |\n| GovLibDL1 | One-year lag of the first difference of GovLib |\n| GovLib.fe0 | - |\n| GovLib.fe1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe2 | - |\n| GovLib.1 | - |\n| GovLib.2 | - |\n| GovLib.1L1 | - |\n| GovLib.1L2 | - |\n| GovLib.2L1 | - |\n| GovLib.2L2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe0L1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe0L2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe1L1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe1L2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe2L1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe2L2 | - |\n| GovLib.1P1 | - |\n| GovLib.1P2 | - |\n| GovLib.2P1 | - |\n| GovLib.2P2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe0P1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe0P2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe1P1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe1P2 | - |\n| GovLib.fe2P1 | - |\n| GovLib.fe2P2 | - |\n\nData Description: \nThis dataset assembles annual, state-level information on policy outputs, party control, election results, and ideological measures for the U.S. states over a long historical period. The core outcome is a yearly score of state policy liberalism derived from a broad set of substantive policy indicators spanning social welfare, taxation, labor, civil rights, criminal justice, and other domains. Complementing this are chamber composition measures (seat counts, seat shares, majority indicators), gubernatorial party and election results, and time-indexed transformations such as lags and differences that structure the panel.\n\nThe data were compiled by combining the dynamic state policy liberalism series with state legislative returns and composition data, gubernatorial election outcomes, measures of elite ideological positions in state legislatures, and mass public ideology by party within states. The panel covers 1936\u20132014 (with some variables available for shorter ranges), includes identifiers for states and eras, and provides both chamber-specific and combined-legislature indicators of partisan divergence. Variables with suffixes like _Lk, Dk, and Pk denote k-year lags, k-year differences, and k-year leads, respectively, offering analysts ready-to-use time-aligned series.\n","file_sha256":"42710f8726652840d2163c717b665af2fde4d74d5f20939cdc361fdd7983fcd0","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"42710f8726652840d2163c717b665af2fde4d74d5f20939cdc361fdd7983fcd0","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0058/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q089","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_mserd_bandwidth","needs_op:rdrobust_nn_variance"],"dtypes":{"ds_0058":{"DemWinGov":"float64","GovLibD1":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["GovLibD1"],"treatment":["DemWinGov"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0058","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0058/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0058","gold":{"ci95":[-0.008083457138834231,0.06257351671860759],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.02724502978988668,"standard_error":0.01802473822893924},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CATE","cutoff":0,"outcomes":["GovLibD1"],"running_variable":"DemMarginGov","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":["DemWinGov"],"variant":"sharp"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0058","treatment":"DemWinGov","y":"GovLibD1"},"native_id":"89","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_mserd_bandwidth","needs_op:rdrobust_nn_variance"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q089.script"}},"question":"Among states with gubernatorial elections decided near 50-50, what is the average effect of electing a Democratic rather than a Republican governor on the one-year change in state policy liberalism?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q089.gold","crb_papers.q089.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}