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The focus aligns with the paper\u2019s Conservative-centered analyses and includes, for each constituency\u2013election, the Conservative vote share, a binary win/loss indicator, and the prior-election margin versus the top opponent.\n\nThe data were compiled from official parliamentary election returns spanning the postwar period (approximately 1950\u20132010) and matched across consecutive elections at the constituency level. Constituencies subject to substantial boundary or name changes that prevented reliable linking across elections were excluded. The study examines patterns in multiparty competition\u2014particularly where Conservatives faced Labour or Liberal/Liberal Democrat opponents\u2014to provide context on how party competition varies across places and over time.","file_sha256":"89382b789a04221ad7b592a7f290679e6074f2d82c48ed32a30219f0219b7a82","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"89382b789a04221ad7b592a7f290679e6074f2d82c48ed32a30219f0219b7a82","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0067/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q100","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"dtypes":{"ds_0067":{"con.rv":"float64","con.winners":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["con.winners"],"treatment":["con.rv"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0067","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0067/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0067","gold":{"ci95":[0.055703020427149294,0.24689138890555057],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.15129720466634994,"standard_error":0.048772542979184},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CATE","cutoff":0.0,"outcomes":["con.winners"],"running_variable":"con.rv","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":["con.rv"],"variant":"sharp"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0067","treatment":"con.rv","y":"con.winners"},"native_id":"100","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q100.script"}},"question":"Among UK constituencies with very close prior elections, what is the causal effect of the Conservative party narrowly holding the seat (versus narrowly losing it) on the probability that Conservatives win the next election in that constituency?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q100.gold","crb_papers.q100.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}