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Each row corresponds to a state in a presidential election year and includes the shift in that state\u2019s Democratic two\u2011party presidential vote relative to the previous presidential contest, along with the Democratic margin from the preceding gubernatorial election. The subset shown here focuses on cases where the prior gubernatorial race was close (roughly within \u00b15 percentage points of parity).\n\nElection data were compiled from the Inter\u2011university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) archives and official publications of state election authorities, following the paper\u2019s coding conventions: vote shares are recorded as Democratic two\u2011party percentages, changes are computed across presidential cycles, and margins are centered at 50 percent. The broader study spans elections from the late 19th century through 2012; values are reported in percentage points and are suitable for reproducing the specific specification referenced in the paper.\n","file_sha256":"a9d82417ad247286905c5165c217831bc562f522416d97238b2a6f885e27b0d1","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"a9d82417ad247286905c5165c217831bc562f522416d97238b2a6f885e27b0d1","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0068/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q102","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"dtypes":{"ds_0068":{"pres_change_reg_1":"float64","rv":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["pres_change_reg_1"],"treatment":["rv"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0068","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0068/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0068","gold":{"ci95":[-5.730704973031951,0.2591572948828631],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-2.735773839074544,"standard_error":1.528026088753779},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CATE","cutoff":0,"outcomes":["pres_change_reg_1"],"running_variable":"rv","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":["rv"],"variant":"sharp"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0068","treatment":"rv","y":"pres_change_reg_1"},"native_id":"102","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q102.script"}},"question":"Among states with razor-close gubernatorial elections, what is the average effect of having a Democratic (vs. Republican) governor on the subsequent change in the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in that state?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q102.gold","crb_papers.q102.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}