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candidate in the given election. |\n| votesh_party_PMDB | Vote share of the PMDB party\u2019s mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| votesh_party_DEM | Vote share of the DEM (formerly PFL) party\u2019s mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| votesh_party_PSDB | Vote share of the PSDB party\u2019s mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| winner_educ | Educational attainment of the elected mayor. |\n| winner_male | Indicator equal to 1 if the elected mayor is male, 0 otherwise. |\n| winner_age | Age of the elected mayor (years). |\n| ver_votesh_party_PP | PP party\u2019s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election. |\n| ver_votesh_party_PT | PT party\u2019s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election. |\n| ver_votesh_party_PMDB | PMDB party\u2019s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election. |\n| ver_votesh_party_DEM | DEM party\u2019s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election. |\n| ver_votesh_party_PSDB | PSDB party\u2019s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election. |\n| party_PP_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PP fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| party_PT_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PT fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| party_PMDB_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| party_DEM_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| party_PSDB_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election. |\n| mv_party_PP | PP party\u2019s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.). |\n| mv_party_PT | PT party\u2019s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.). |\n| mv_party_PMDB | PMDB party\u2019s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.). |\n| mv_party_DEM | DEM party\u2019s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.). |\n| mv_party_PSDB | PSDB party\u2019s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.). |\n| votesh_party_PPfor1 | PP party\u2019s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1). |\n| votesh_party_PTfor1 | PT party\u2019s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1). |\n| votesh_party_PMDBfor1 | PMDB party\u2019s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1). |\n| votesh_party_DEMfor1 | DEM party\u2019s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1). |\n| votesh_party_PSDBfor1 | PSDB party\u2019s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1). |\n| mv_party_PPfor1 | PP party\u2019s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| mv_party_PTfor1 | PT party\u2019s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| mv_party_PMDBfor1 | PMDB party\u2019s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| mv_party_DEMfor1 | DEM party\u2019s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| mv_party_PSDBfor1 | PSDB party\u2019s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| party_PP_runslag1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PP ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PP_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PP runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PT_runslag1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PT ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PT_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PT runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PMDB_runslag1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PMDB_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_DEM_runslag1 | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t\u22121). |\n| party_DEM_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PSDB_runslag1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PSDB_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PP_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PP wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PT_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PT wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PMDB_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_DEM_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PSDB_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1). |\n| inc_party_won | Indicator equal to 1 if the party holding the mayor\u2019s office before the election wins the current race. |\n| mv_incparty | Vote margin of the pre\u2011election incumbent party in the current mayoral race (p.p.). |\n| mv_incpartyfor1 | Vote margin of the party in office at time t in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p. |\n| inc_party_runsfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if the party in office at time t fields a mayoral candidate in the next election. |\n| inc_party_wonfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if the party in office at time t wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| coal_size_party_PP | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PP mayoral ticket in the current election (number of parties). |\n| coal_size_party_PT | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PT mayoral ticket in the current election. |\n| coal_size_party_PMDB | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PMDB mayoral ticket in the current election. |\n| coal_size_party_DEM | Size of the electoral coalition backing the DEM mayoral ticket in the current election. |\n| coal_size_party_PSDB | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PSDB mayoral ticket in the current election. |\n| coal_size_party_PPfor1 | Coalition size for the PP mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1). |\n| coal_size_party_PTfor1 | Coalition size for the PT mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1). |\n| coal_size_party_PMDBfor1 | Coalition size for the PMDB mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1). |\n| coal_size_party_DEMfor1 | Coalition size for the DEM mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1). |\n| coal_size_party_PSDBfor1 | Coalition size for the PSDB mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1). |\n| dlameduck_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if the sitting mayor is term\u2011limited (lame duck) in this election cycle. |\n| dlameduck_party_PP_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PP faces a term\u2011limited mayor from its party in this election. |\n| dlameduck_party_PT_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PT faces a term\u2011limited mayor from its party in this election. |\n| dlameduck_party_PMDB_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB faces a term\u2011limited mayor from its party in this election. |\n| dlameduck_party_DEM_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM faces a term\u2011limited mayor from its party in this election. |\n| dlameduck_party_PSDB_runs | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB faces a term\u2011limited mayor from its party in this election. |\n| inc_party_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether the party in office at time t wins the next election (t+1). |\n| party_PP_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PP wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| party_PP_wonlag1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PP won the previous mayoral election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PT_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PT wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| party_PT_wonlag1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PT won the previous mayoral election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PMDB_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PMDB wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| party_PMDB_wonlag1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PMDB won the previous mayoral election (t\u22121). |\n| party_DEM_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether DEM wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| party_DEM_wonlag1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether DEM won the previous mayoral election (t\u22121). |\n| party_PSDB_wonfor1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PSDB wins the next mayoral election (t+1). |\n| party_PSDB_wonlag1_b1 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PSDB won the previous mayoral election (t\u22121). |\n| population | Municipal population (IBGE). |\n| growth_func_admdir_totalfor1 | Growth in municipal administration employment over the next term (percentage points). |\n| housing_programfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if the municipality reports any housing program in the next term. |\n| housing_program_matfor1 | Indicator equal to 1 if the municipality offers a building\u2011materials housing program in the next term. |\n| expmun_asoc_totfor1 | Total municipal expenditures on social assistance in the next term (local currency). |\n| nxt4yr_mn_des_sum2_shdestot | Average share of total municipal spending on health, education, and social assistance over the next 4 years.|\n| pib | Municipal GDP (PIB), local currency. |\n| pibpc | Municipal GDP per capita. |\n| revenue_total | Total municipal revenue (local currency). |\n| expend_total | Total municipal expenditures (local currency). |\n| dnorte | Region dummy: 1 if the municipality is in the North, 0 otherwise. |\n| dnordeste | Region dummy: 1 if in the Northeast, 0 otherwise. |\n| dsudeste | Region dummy: 1 if in the Southeast, 0 otherwise. |\n| dsul | Region dummy: 1 if in the South, 0 otherwise. |\n| dcentrooeste | Region dummy: 1 if in the Center\u2011West, 0 otherwise. |\n\nData Description: \nThe dataset is a municipality\u2013election panel covering Brazilian mayoral contests from 1996 to 2012. It compiles official election returns for mayors and municipal councils from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), and merges these with municipal characteristics and public administration indicators from federal administrative records and surveys, including Tesouro Nacional\u2019s FINBRA accounts and IBGE\u2019s Perfil dos Munic\u00edpios. Macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates (GDP, GDP per capita, revenues, expenditures) and regional identifiers are also included.\n\nVariables identify party participation and performance for the five most relevant parties in the study period (PP, PT, PMDB, DEM/PFL, PSDB), along with margins, coalition sizes, and whether parties ran or won in the previous or subsequent election (suffixes \u201clag1\u201d and \u201cfor1\u201d). The dataset also records incumbent status and whether the sitting mayor was term\u2011limited, basic characteristics of winners, and several indicators of municipal service provision in the following term (e.g., housing programs, social assistance spending, administrative employment growth, and the average share of spending on health, education, and social assistance). This structure allows analysts to track electoral dynamics and related municipal outcomes over successive election cycles across Brazil\u2019s municipalities.","file_sha256":"eb433ac5ade04f45c53076a29ee3c189948d6aa49f5ff4c31d37631e8076a743","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"eb433ac5ade04f45c53076a29ee3c189948d6aa49f5ff4c31d37631e8076a743","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0077/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q112","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"dtypes":{"ds_0077":{"inc_party_won":"int64","inc_party_wonfor1_b1":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["inc_party_wonfor1_b1"],"treatment":["inc_party_won"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0077","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0077/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0077","gold":{"ci95":[-0.2126619672787376,-0.10139354909318603],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.15702775818596182,"standard_error":0.02838480055753867},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CATE","cutoff":0.0,"outcomes":["inc_party_wonfor1_b1/inc_party_wonfor1"],"running_variable":"mv_incparty","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":["inc_party_won"],"variant":"sharp"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0077","treatment":"inc_party_won","y":"inc_party_wonfor1_b1"},"native_id":"112","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q112.script"}},"question":"Among Brazilian municipalities with extremely close mayoral elections, what is the average effect of the incumbent party narrowly winning the current election on the probability that the same party wins the next election, unconditional on running?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q112.gold","crb_papers.q112.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}