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Municipal adoption of civil service rules was recorded by the U.S. Civil Service Assembly in nationwide surveys conducted in 1937, 1940, and 1943 and supplemented by state-level statutes that, in many cases, mandated adoption using population thresholds. The \u201ctreat\u201d indicator reflects whether a city had a functioning municipal civil service commission by a given census year; because commissions, once established, typically persisted, the indicator does not toggle back to zero for later years.\n\nDemographic and employment composition measures are derived from the full-count decennial U.S. Censuses (1850\u20131940, with 1890 unavailable). The census enumerated every resident and captured birthplace, race, industry, and occupation, allowing identification of local public administration workers and classification of blue-collar positions. 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Further, they note that \u201cThe most likely candidate for such confounding is the overall proportion of a given ethnic group in any given municipality, which we control for in our models.\u201d (Empirical Strategy 1: Event Study, p. 208).","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"YEAR","treatments":["treat"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.Treated_Post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0020","treatment":"treat","y":"govt_prop"},"native_id":"38","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"city","controls":["Treated","Post","pop_prop"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Treated_Post"],"y":"govt_prop"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('govt_prop ~ Treated * Post + pop_prop').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=city) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"city","controls":["Treated","Post","pop_prop"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Treated_Post"],"y":"govt_prop"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_fty","ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q038.script"}},"question":"Among cities with observed reform status at both censuses, how did adopting a civil service commission after 1910 and by 1920 affect the change from 1910 to 1920 in the share of blue-collar city jobs held by foreign-born white residents, compared with cities that had not adopted by 1920, adjusting for the city's foreign-born white population share?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q038.gold","crb_papers.q038.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}