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The dataset merges logged trade flows with measures derived from diplomatic behavior, state capability indices, trade shares relative to GDP, regime-type indicators, U.S. trade and aid flows, and lagged energy-production figures; many variables are log-transformed or scaled for comparability. Source material derives from standard international datasets and author-constructed series (trade statistics, capability indexes, voting/preference measures, aid records and national energy statistics), and the provided file has been pre-processed to a country-year format with the identifiers and derived variables noted above.\n","file_sha256":"d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0040/data/data.csv"},"ref_iv":{"columns":null,"description":"Complete rows of the script's columns, with state dummies","file_sha256":"d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"reference","sha256":"d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"column":"statea","drop_first":true,"prefix":"statea"},"op":"dummies"}],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0040/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q070","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv"],"dtypes":{"ds_0040":{"log_HRVOTE":"float64","log_tot_trade":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["log_HRVOTE"],"treatment":["log_tot_trade"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0040","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0040/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0040","gold":{"ci95":[0.019122601323438945,0.07211124439500378],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.045616922859221365,"standard_error":0.013517510987644091},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"LATE","controls":["log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004"],"instrument":["lag_log_energ_prod"],"is_encouragement_design":false,"outcomes":["log_HRVOTE"],"strategy":"Instrumental Variable","treatments":["log_tot_trade"],"variant":"Two-stage least squares (2SLS) with country fixed effects; 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