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The sample focuses on contested primaries featuring two viable candidates for whom ideological positions could be estimated using patterns of primary-election campaign receipts. Election results were compiled from election-return records, with general-election outcomes recorded as vote share and win/loss indicators.\n\nEach row reflects a district\u2013party\u2013year observation in which an ideologically \u201cextreme\u201d primary candidate (defined relative to their primary opponent using contribution-based ideology scores) is identified, along with that candidate\u2019s primary margin (centered at 0.5) and the party\u2019s subsequent general-election performance. The data provide concise measures needed to examine how primary nomination contexts relate to general-election results, using standardized constructs such as two-party vote share, a binary win indicator, and a centered primary vote margin for the candidate classified as extreme.\n","file_sha256":"cc8fd9c994a1f10515841b742e28d4298e17851dd1fe2104c8b8c64098389891","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"cc8fd9c994a1f10515841b742e28d4298e17851dd1fe2104c8b8c64098389891","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0073/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q108","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"dtypes":{"ds_0073":{"dv_win":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["dv_win"],"treatment":[]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0073","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0073/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0073","gold":{"ci95":[-0.9230968170952967,0.07500561536668354],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.42404560086430654,"standard_error":0.2546179674647909},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CATE","cutoff":0,"outcomes":["dv_win"],"running_variable":"rv","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":[],"variant":"sharp"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0073","treatment":"rv","y":"dv_win"},"native_id":"108","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q108.script"}},"question":"Among districts at the margin where a more extreme candidate just wins versus just loses the primary, what is the average causal effect of nominating the extremist (versus a relatively moderate candidate) on the party's probability of winning the subsequent general election?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q108.gold","crb_papers.q108.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}