{"call_id":"call_11997c5a","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_switch","index":0,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.211157Z","duration_ms":0.23887492716312408,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_bc9df0c2","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_switch","index":1,"op":"dropna","args":{"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.213580Z","duration_ms":0.3582919016480446,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_47c7ff91","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_switch","index":2,"op":"derive","args":{"name":"r_prev","op":"lag","args":{"column":"Republican","by":["state"],"order":["year"],"periods":1}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"abbd3d6b245e928db04baa7628cbf796a72152e78d23849d0aa82ecf92aaca0b"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.215173Z","duration_ms":1.7460000235587358,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_963c465b","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_switch","index":3,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"Republican == 1 and r_prev == 0"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":27,"frame_sha256_before":"abbd3d6b245e928db04baa7628cbf796a72152e78d23849d0aa82ecf92aaca0b","frame_sha256_after":"c56928f5bd8e8faefa39bc976f9bc930515a7884c7460c6fa6f236877a315289"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.220141Z","duration_ms":0.5661251489073038,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_6b632926","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_switch","index":4,"op":"collapse","args":{"by":["state"],"aggs":[{"name":"syear","column":"year","fn":"min"}]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":27,"rows_after":24,"frame_sha256_before":"c56928f5bd8e8faefa39bc976f9bc930515a7884c7460c6fa6f236877a315289","frame_sha256_after":"08613c2c5326f8da2c7264494ed6c3dce1165f28902e6feac4595b9c0bc28ff7"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.221485Z","duration_ms":2.204208867624402,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_4fda077b","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_pre","index":0,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.226176Z","duration_ms":0.22720801644027233,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_3bbfa344","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_pre","index":1,"op":"dropna","args":{"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.229986Z","duration_ms":0.312417047098279,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_34abe3d1","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_pre","index":2,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"year == 2010"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"cc8713520f8d8aca675b81518922b4ba4794e717895a8c085aa256925420824c"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.232641Z","duration_ms":0.6457078270614147,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_07d5799a","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_pre","index":3,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["state","Republican"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":49,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"cc8713520f8d8aca675b81518922b4ba4794e717895a8c085aa256925420824c","frame_sha256_after":"381b51fea11e107066670b2a85d52786751ac91bd2aa8699a1c7c791bed6dda9"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.238213Z","duration_ms":9.68779087997973,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_69fc79e1","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_pre","index":4,"op":"rename","args":{"map":{"Republican":"r_pre"}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":49,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"381b51fea11e107066670b2a85d52786751ac91bd2aa8699a1c7c791bed6dda9","frame_sha256_after":"10afd9252cc743987e7e2d52a657a42dbc945a0cfe7519c377c41eefb56ee996"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.249280Z","duration_ms":0.5311251152306795,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_d6b6a6c7","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_post","index":0,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.253543Z","duration_ms":0.24745799601078033,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_0a63b0d1","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_post","index":1,"op":"dropna","args":{"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.255106Z","duration_ms":0.3500829916447401,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_f38ed793","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_post","index":2,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"year == 2012"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"8c4c9a31fcc8af927f30e71cd6ae6a10bc05d5548b403c37878ab7adc0b84455"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.256551Z","duration_ms":0.340375117957592,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_4145a858","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_post","index":3,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["state","Republican"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":49,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"8c4c9a31fcc8af927f30e71cd6ae6a10bc05d5548b403c37878ab7adc0b84455","frame_sha256_after":"54dcd55007ebafb7d9d4b552cbf16711a671afa22f112d726836255b0628e0ef"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.257728Z","duration_ms":0.4290409851819277,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_ef08ceff","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_post","index":4,"op":"rename","args":{"map":{"Republican":"r_post"}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":49,"rows_after":49,"frame_sha256_before":"54dcd55007ebafb7d9d4b552cbf16711a671afa22f112d726836255b0628e0ef","frame_sha256_after":"5a497b3523fd8b1470ccd904eee121e3de863a80c0518070d356bfedebeda98e"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.258786Z","duration_ms":0.16654212959110737,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_d2eba366","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":0,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["Republican","state","year","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.263553Z","duration_ms":0.24391687475144863,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_90c0f5ea","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":1,"op":"dropna","args":{"columns":["state","year","Republican","democracy_mcmc"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":833,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.265237Z","duration_ms":0.80512510612607,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_ed38e803","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":2,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"year in [2010, 2012]"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":833,"rows_after":98,"frame_sha256_before":"5bc3cfb33d7015ef69f405f7a413176b19165dd8a84304cbc15597025a3680f8","frame_sha256_after":"c5e5425543611cbfbefe34035cf07f838e8a6ca03242d52ae734dd227733a8f2"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.268730Z","duration_ms":0.8650000672787428,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_e9d9ff52","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":3,"op":"merge","args":{"with":"ref_switch","on":["state"],"how":"left"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":98,"rows_after":98,"frame_sha256_before":"c5e5425543611cbfbefe34035cf07f838e8a6ca03242d52ae734dd227733a8f2","frame_sha256_after":"0fba2b4d82c9e09fa6466fe63c4c82ac68e0fec0fb0f75386070b4853628ebc1"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.270377Z","duration_ms":0.8248749654740095,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_64020445","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":4,"op":"merge","args":{"with":"ref_pre","on":["state"],"how":"inner"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":98,"rows_after":98,"frame_sha256_before":"0fba2b4d82c9e09fa6466fe63c4c82ac68e0fec0fb0f75386070b4853628ebc1","frame_sha256_after":"59a432d52b19fbd6dcd6ae9094d9fb597bf78b440bc7d40a470d452aa43efbc2"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.271697Z","duration_ms":1.3207499869167805,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_f9abbfad","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":5,"op":"merge","args":{"with":"ref_post","on":["state"],"how":"inner"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":98,"rows_after":98,"frame_sha256_before":"59a432d52b19fbd6dcd6ae9094d9fb597bf78b440bc7d40a470d452aa43efbc2","frame_sha256_after":"7621f85d11f32ec3b6849c52be3da844c43c8ff0a360a402b5ccdaa38e4c73e6"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.273560Z","duration_ms":1.3462081551551819,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_807553fa","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":6,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"r_pre == 0 and ((syear == 2011 and r_post == 1) or ((syear != syear or syear > 2012) and r_post == 0))"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":98,"rows_after":64,"frame_sha256_before":"7621f85d11f32ec3b6849c52be3da844c43c8ff0a360a402b5ccdaa38e4c73e6","frame_sha256_after":"5655b2e0e589e236af37ff6b158abbe846a212b7a8e301e0234232b8c5142873"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.275580Z","duration_ms":0.7565831765532494,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_15207f53","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":7,"op":"derive","args":{"name":"Tgroup","op":"indicator","args":{"column":"r_post","cmp":"eq","value":1}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":64,"rows_after":64,"frame_sha256_before":"5655b2e0e589e236af37ff6b158abbe846a212b7a8e301e0234232b8c5142873","frame_sha256_after":"2110e4ef09acdbf7da0b2df9ed07897079ee1b0c8afae5bfd66e0ffd9bd21539"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.276964Z","duration_ms":0.24808291345834732,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_d19cd33c","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":8,"op":"derive","args":{"name":"Post","op":"indicator","args":{"column":"year","cmp":"eq","value":2012}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":64,"rows_after":64,"frame_sha256_before":"2110e4ef09acdbf7da0b2df9ed07897079ee1b0c8afae5bfd66e0ffd9bd21539","frame_sha256_after":"36cefb3972eb706aa65eeb0ac4385fead8fcdb712b32c4cf2c5301feaaa82b54"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.278025Z","duration_ms":0.22787507623434067,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_bd6af0a9","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":9,"op":"derive","args":{"name":"DID","op":"interaction","args":{"columns":["Tgroup","Post"]}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":64,"rows_after":64,"frame_sha256_before":"36cefb3972eb706aa65eeb0ac4385fead8fcdb712b32c4cf2c5301feaaa82b54","frame_sha256_after":"88ade232a813e4c8afedc89554677cec793d4ad2b4bb6e1b5ac20b3676770651"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.278822Z","duration_ms":0.21008308976888657,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_a37a2c4d","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.291098Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"ds_0012\",\n \"rows\": 833,\n \"description\": \"| Variable Name | Description |\\n| --- | --- |\\n| index | Sequential row identifier from the file export; included for reference and not used as a substantive measure. |\\n| Republican | Binary indicator (0/1) for unified Republican control of state government in a given year. Equals 1 when the governorship and both legislative chambers were held by Republicans; 0 otherwise (including divided or other control). Compiled from state partisan balance data with updates from legislative tracking organizations. |\\n| state | U.S. state name (50 states). |\\n| year | Calendar year of observation (2000–2016). |\\n| democracy_mcmc | Continuous State Democracy Index score for the state-year, estimated via Bayesian factor analysis (MCMC) from 51 state-level indicators of electoral rules, administrative performance, districting metrics, and related practices. The scale is approximately standardized across the panel (values can be negative or positive around zero); higher values indicate stronger electoral-democracy performance. Sources feeding the indicators include election administration data (e.g., MIT Election Lab), legislative policy compilations (e.g., NCSL), gerrymandering diagnostics, and measures of policy–opinion congruence. |\\n\\nDataset Context:\\nThis file is a state–year panel that assembles administrative records, policy codings, and quantitative diagnostics to summarize how U.S. states structure and administer electoral democracy. The period 2000–2016 spans consequential developments in state election law and administration, including reforms that expanded access (e.g., early voting, online and same‑day registration, and the beginnings of automatic voter registration late in the period) and policies that increased participation costs for some voters (e.g., voter ID requirements). It also covers the 2010 redistricting cycle and subsequent evaluations of district plans using established gerrymandering metrics. During these years, federal–state relations affecting elections shifted as well, including changes to Voting Rights Act oversight after 2013, which altered how and where states implemented election-law changes.\\n\\nThe State Democracy Index (reported here as democracy_mcmc) is constructed by combining 51 indicators into a single latent score using Bayesian factor analysis designed for mixed data types (binary, ordinal, and continuous). Indicator families include: election access rules (registration and voting modalities), administrative performance (e.g., wait times, provisional ballot handling, data completeness), post‑election audit requirements, districting fairness diagnostics (efficiency gap, partisan symmetry, declination, compactness), and measures of policy–opinion alignment. Indicator inputs draw on sources such as the MIT Election Lab’s compilations of election administration statistics, the National Conference of State Legislatures’ inventories of state election laws, quantitative assessments of district plans, and state policy–opinion datasets. Scores are standardized to facilitate comparison across states and years, with higher values reflecting stronger performance on these electoral-democracy dimensions.\\n\\nThe unified-party-control variable is built from long‑running state partisan balance datasets and contemporary updates that track which party simultaneously held the governorship and majorities in both legislative chambers in each year. Together with state names and calendar years, these fields allow analysts to align institutional configurations with contemporaneous features of election law, administration, and districting captured in the index.\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"Republican\": \"float64\",\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"year\": \"int64\",\n  \"democracy_mcmc\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_panel\",\n \"rows\": 64,\n \"description\": \"State rows of 2010 and 2012: the 2011 switchers (0 then 1) and the controls (0 and 0)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"Republican\": \"float64\",\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"year\": \"int64\",\n  \"democracy_mcmc\": \"float64\",\n  \"syear\": \"float64\",\n  \"r_pre\": \"float64\",\n  \"r_post\": \"float64\",\n  \"Tgroup\": \"int64\",\n  \"Post\": \"int64\",\n  \"DID\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_post\",\n \"rows\": 49,\n \"description\": \"Each state's Republican in 2012 (r_post)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"r_post\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_pre\",\n \"rows\": 49,\n \"description\": \"Each state's Republican in 2010 (r_pre)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"r_pre\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_switch\",\n \"rows\": 24,\n \"description\": \"Each state's first year whose Republican is 1 after a row (in year order) with 0\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"syear\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nBy how much did the State Democracy Index change from 2010 to 2012 in states that newly gained unified Republican control in 2011 versus states that did not?","response":"sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)\ninfer__ols({\"dataset\": \"ref_panel\", \"y\": \"democracy_mcmc\", \"x\": [\"DID\"], \"controls\": [\"Tgroup\", \"Post\"], \"cluster\": \"state\"})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_a37a2c4d","text":"sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","args":{"dataset":"ref_panel","y":"democracy_mcmc","x":["DID"],"controls":["Tgroup","Post"],"cluster":"state"}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d5bcb2ba6e92fe73794c2dfc0d8b95cb40a1140b9e1ddb88594d666ba2c6e441","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["759df710cf3af086faf111d21ab3ff23381814879b62c89ee348fca8078662ad"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":0.7272919174283743}}
{"call_id":"call_f32c73ff","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"tool","name":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","y":"democracy_mcmc","x":["DID"],"controls":["Tgroup","Post"],"fe":[],"cluster":"state","se":"HC1","weights":null,"subset":null,"intercept":true,"level":0.95},"input_digest":"1fa82d0d7731e8c2256089d84a65b0419676c0cac3bf3428a93e2d712f3cdd0c","dataset_digests":{"ref_panel":"88ade232a813e4c8afedc89554677cec793d4ad2b4bb6e1b5ac20b3676770651"},"result":{"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","call_id":"call_f32c73ff","status":"ok","reason":"","figures":[{"key":"coef.DID","value":-1.0193657368631845,"unit":"","label":"Coefficient on DID in the regression of democracy_mcmc","se":0.37466032388815806,"ci_low":-1.7834905052643162,"ci_high":-0.2552409684620528,"ci_level":0.95,"derivation":{"steps":[{"text_pt":"Coeficiente de DID na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de democracy_mcmc.","formula":"","terms":[{"symbol":"n","value":64.0,"unit":"observações","note":""},{"symbol":"k","value":4.0,"unit":"parâmetros","note":""}],"result":-1.0193657368631845,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Erro-padrão robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.","formula":"ep = √V_jj","terms":[{"symbol":"V_jj","value":0.1403703582959795,"unit":"","note":"diagonal da matriz de covariância"}],"result":0.37466032388815806,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 31 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.","formula":"IC = β ± c · ep","terms":[{"symbol":"β","value":-1.0193657368631845,"unit":"","note":""},{"symbol":"c","value":2.039513446396408,"unit":"","note":"quantil 0.975"},{"symbol":"ep","value":0.37466032388815806,"unit":"","note":""}],"result":null,"unit":""}],"note_pt":""}}],"diagnostics":[{"name":"n_obs","value":64,"flag":false,"note":"observations used"},{"name":"k","value":4,"flag":false,"note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included"},{"name":"r2","value":0.3046270391750081,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"df_resid","value":60,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"se_type","value":"cluster","flag":false,"note":"cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'state'"},{"name":"n_clusters","value":32,"flag":true,"note":"32 clusters of 'state'; below about 40, cluster-robust errors are too small — confirm with infer.randomization_inference or a wild cluster bootstrap"}],"tables":{"coefficients":[{"term":"Intercept","coef":0.42880984492551805,"se":0.12684665375717807,"t":3.3805373040930715,"p":0.001970349607291347,"ci_low":0.1701043889573639,"ci_high":0.6875153008936722},{"term":"DID","coef":-1.0193657368631845,"se":0.37466032388815806,"t":-2.7207731159904753,"p":0.010583181123112288,"ci_low":-1.7834905052643162,"ci_high":-0.2552409684620528},{"term":"Tgroup","coef":-0.5396568683990323,"se":0.22071794665882977,"t":-2.4450067453427144,"p":0.020365254389238953,"ci_low":-0.9898140884707207,"ci_high":-0.08949964832734375},{"term":"Post","coef":-0.10674681155733515,"se":0.20158984133017402,"t":-0.5295247560738928,"p":0.6002134888971519,"ci_low":-0.5178920036071435,"ci_high":0.30439838049247314}]},"datasets":{},"warnings":[],"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across clusters of 'state' and may be correlated within them"],"notes":""},"outputs":null,"output_digest":"cb687f350af3b3d555a13811bfeb54c7305789c4f876cf601831f5d9304e9850","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.294211Z","duration_ms":3.0662917997688055,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"sm.OLS(y, add_constant([Tgroup, Post, DID])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{"turn_id":"call_a37a2c4d","llm_name":"infer__ols","vendor_id":"script_1","result_for_model_ref":"98b4a50d1e56a725e2b3a760db6a36107970085cc13b73ffa64608d680a2b9ec"}}
{"call_id":"call_6fd2b3a7","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.297443Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":null,"response":"submit_answer({\"answer\": \"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.DID = -1,019. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.\", \"figure_refs\": [\"call_f32c73ff:coef.DID\"], \"caveats\": []})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_6fd2b3a7","text":"","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_2","llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.DID = -1,019. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","figure_refs":["call_f32c73ff:coef.DID"],"caveats":[]}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d5bcb2ba6e92fe73794c2dfc0d8b95cb40a1140b9e1ddb88594d666ba2c6e441","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["759df710cf3af086faf111d21ab3ff23381814879b62c89ee348fca8078662ad","57f4a7efb57042827c93143fc29166eea2d0faaf828a0eff8718ad2cd5024e27","3bcb64ea40f7bb75ed2f7de7bc23989397fbb6afc82fc50731b158ebc7a95f5e"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":0.27491687797009945}}
{"call_id":"call_b77d176c","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q022/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"note","name":"analyst.guard","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.298811Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{"turn_id":"call_6fd2b3a7","numbers_found":["-1,019"],"unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"invalid_refs":[],"empty":false,"verdict":"accepted","retries_left":1,"vendor_id":"script_2"}}