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{"call_id":"call_d9ff8b3f","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q024/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_panel","index":10,"op":"derive","args":{"name":"treated_post","op":"interaction","args":{"columns":["treated","post"]}}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":92,"rows_after":92,"frame_sha256_before":"4eb6fd2eba270ab727124b29d3d8efe59569736f90517e2b774b66b49ad859bc","frame_sha256_after":"27a04ac90adeea209fc69ccbf7a2a630b43ffde872944f974dd2172f5ff406b7"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.396537Z","duration_ms":0.2199159935116768,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_6b092b23","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q024/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:27.410030Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"ds_0013\",\n \"rows\": 980,\n \"description\": \"| Variable Name | Description |\\n| --- | --- |\\n| voted | State-year turnout rate (0–1), aggregated from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement. Computed as the share of adult residents surveyed in that state and year who report having voted in the November general election. Includes both presidential and midterm cycles and reflects CPS’s biennial November fielding and weighting. |\\n| temp_var | Indicator (0/1) that residents could register and cast a ballot on the same day in that state and year. Status reflects the first general election in which the option was implemented, and remains 1 thereafter. Codings draw on legislative and administrative sources and treat Election Day registration as part of the same “same-day” category. |\\n| state | U.S. state name corresponding to each panel unit. |\\n| year | Calendar election year (even-numbered), matching the CPS Voter Supplement cycle and covering both presidential and midterm general elections. |\\n\\nDataset Context:\\nThis file is a state-by-year panel spanning 1980–2018 that aligns survey-based measures of participation with the timing of state registration rules. Turnout is derived from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, a large, nationally representative survey of the civilian, noninstitutionalized population conducted every two years in November. The CPS asks respondents whether they voted in the most recent general election and provides sampling weights to recover population-representative estimates. Aggregating these responses to the state-year level yields a consistent series of turnout rates across both presidential and midterm elections. As with any self-reported voting measure, the CPS can modestly overstate participation, but it is widely used for its coverage, consistent questionnaire, and long time span.\\n\\nPolicy status for same-day registration is compiled from legislative and administrative references, including nonpartisan compilations and state records, and is coded to reflect the first election in which residents could register and vote on the same day. Jurisdictions that permit registration on Election Day itself are included under the same umbrella as those allowing same-day registration during an early voting window. Once a state implements the option, its indicator remains active in subsequent even-year elections unless the policy is rescinded.\\n\\nBy harmonizing CPS-based turnout with the timing of registration options, the dataset supports comparisons of participation patterns across places and over time. The panel includes both high-salience presidential contests and midterm cycles, allowing researchers to examine differences that can arise across election types while working with a uniform measurement framework.\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"voted\": \"float64\",\n  \"temp_var\": \"float64\",\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"year\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_panel\",\n \"rows\": 92,\n \"description\": \"State rows of 1992 and 1994: temp_var 0 then 1 (treated) or 0 and 0 (control)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"voted\": \"float64\",\n  \"temp_var\": \"float64\",\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"year\": \"int64\",\n  \"nyears\": \"int64\",\n  \"t_pre\": \"float64\",\n  \"t_post\": \"float64\",\n  \"treated\": \"int64\",\n  \"post\": \"int64\",\n  \"treated_post\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_post\",\n \"rows\": 49,\n \"description\": \"Each state's max of temp_var in 1994 (t_post)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"t_post\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_pre\",\n \"rows\": 49,\n \"description\": \"Each state's max of temp_var in 1992 (t_pre)\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"t_pre\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_years\",\n \"rows\": 49,\n \"description\": \"How many of 1992 and 1994 each state is observed in\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"state\": \"str\",\n  \"nyears\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nBy how many percentage points did adopting same-day voter registration in 1994 alter a state's CPS-based voter turnout between the prior and subsequent election?","response":"smf.ols('voted ~ treated + post + treated:post').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)\ninfer__ols({\"dataset\": \"ref_panel\", \"y\": \"voted\", \"x\": [\"treated_post\"], \"controls\": [\"treated\", \"post\"], \"cluster\": \"state\"})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_6b092b23","text":"smf.ols('voted ~ treated + post + treated:post').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","args":{"dataset":"ref_panel","y":"voted","x":["treated_post"],"controls":["treated","post"],"cluster":"state"}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"3492e73f2f7c9a5df10e086d859b019f1f61ef1a4745919c5545cb7c93f1d65b","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["addc0a99533d25ac6083543498f10ed1f761db5a26c7e0cabbf6c6ef46693a6d"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":0.7233750075101852}}
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