{"call_id":"call_e08d361f","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_iv","index":0,"op":"filter","args":{"query":"occ == 'blue_collar' and name == 'white_x_native_born'"}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":40452,"rows_after":1686,"frame_sha256_before":"70ec9feb2c796cfd98963f1948c8a52286056dadf4df3fc19d3c7179994c358f","frame_sha256_after":"9c9371e96a414fcda913875d8714e056f0a1d7041a2f3f52d434fc5b91b4e9ee"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.288653Z","duration_ms":1.347542041912675,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_4d18bfa2","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_iv","index":1,"op":"select","args":{"columns":["govt","treat_actual","treat_assign","pop","YEAR","city"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":1686,"rows_after":1686,"frame_sha256_before":"9c9371e96a414fcda913875d8714e056f0a1d7041a2f3f52d434fc5b91b4e9ee","frame_sha256_after":"1166c0af001f00307c4422c0a6614e371e9185fb6f91720a6c4d52448fc7bdf2"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.298689Z","duration_ms":0.4469999112188816,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_54d2ceb0","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_iv","index":2,"op":"dropna","args":{"columns":["govt","treat_actual","treat_assign","pop","YEAR","city"]}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":1686,"rows_after":1686,"frame_sha256_before":"1166c0af001f00307c4422c0a6614e371e9185fb6f91720a6c4d52448fc7bdf2","frame_sha256_after":"1166c0af001f00307c4422c0a6614e371e9185fb6f91720a6c4d52448fc7bdf2"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.301147Z","duration_ms":0.5075419321656227,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_7c748fdc","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_iv","index":3,"op":"dummies","args":{"column":"YEAR","prefix":"YEAR","drop_first":true}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":1686,"rows_after":1686,"frame_sha256_before":"1166c0af001f00307c4422c0a6614e371e9185fb6f91720a6c4d52448fc7bdf2","frame_sha256_after":"aaa7279efd2f289dbecdec17a0ce57df68e8ac7b2fd9b9e1861177675827574b"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.302695Z","duration_ms":0.35829213447868824,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_54844cc8","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"data","kind":"note","name":"data.transform","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"ref_iv","index":4,"op":"dummies","args":{"column":"city","prefix":"city","drop_first":true}},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":{"rows_before":1686,"rows_after":1686,"frame_sha256_before":"aaa7279efd2f289dbecdec17a0ce57df68e8ac7b2fd9b9e1861177675827574b","frame_sha256_after":"7d61c3ca2820695850a004a3f562adc84c8c7616c63bd9cf034254497c8c4fda"},"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.304278Z","duration_ms":1.0837919544428587,"error":null,"decided_by":"code","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{}}
{"call_id":"call_7c954246","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5/crb_papers.q074/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.370076Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"ds_0044\",\n \"rows\": 40452,\n \"description\": \"| Variable Name  | Description                                                                                 |\\n|----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\\n| Unnamed/Index  | Row identifier / index column carried over from the source CSV (sequence number).          |\\n| city           | Municipality name and state (lowercase string, e.g., \\\"akron, oh\\\").                         |\\n| YEAR           | Census year (decennial year) for the observation (numeric).                                |\\n| occ            | Occupation class for municipal employment (e.g., \\\"blue_collar\\\", \\\"white_collar\\\", \\\"police\\\").  |\\n| name           | Demographic group label combining race and nativity (e.g., \\\"white_x_native_born\\\").         |\\n| govt           | Proportion (share) of municipal government jobs in this city–year–occupation held by group. |\\n| pop            | Proportion (share) of the municipality's total population comprised by the named group.     |\\n| treat_assign   | Binary indicator whether a statewide legislative mandate applied to the municipality that decade (0/1). |\\n| treat_actual   | Binary indicator whether the municipality had the municipal civil service commission in effect that decade (0/1). |\\n| bandwidth      | Numeric distance in residents between the municipality's population and the state cutoff used in assignment rules. |\\n\\nData Description: This dataset is a municipality-by-decade panel that links full-count U.S. decennial census records (1850–1940) on municipal employment and population composition with administrative indicators derived from state statutes and municipal surveys. Each observation identifies a city and census year, an occupation class, and a demographic group, and reports group shares in the municipal population and in the local government workforce; the file also includes binary flags recording whether a state-level mandate applied and whether a municipal civil service commission was in place, plus a numeric distance-from-cutoff measure used for threshold-based comparisons. The underlying sources include full-count census enumerations (industry/occupation and birthplace fields), historical surveys of municipal civil service adoption, and compiled state session-law information assembled to create a harmonized longitudinal dataset on municipal staff composition.\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"city\": \"str\",\n  \"YEAR\": \"float64\",\n  \"occ\": \"str\",\n  \"name\": \"str\",\n  \"govt\": \"float64\",\n  \"pop\": \"float64\",\n  \"treat_assign\": \"float64\",\n  \"treat_actual\": \"float64\",\n  \"bandwidth\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n{\n \"id\": \"ref_iv\",\n \"rows\": 1686,\n \"description\": \"Blue-collar white native-born rows, complete, with year and city dummies\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"govt\": \"float64\",\n  \"treat_actual\": \"float64\",\n  \"treat_assign\": \"float64\",\n  \"pop\": \"float64\",\n  \"YEAR\": \"float64\",\n  \"city\": \"str\",\n  \"YEAR_1860.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1870.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1880.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1900.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1910.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1920.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1930.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"YEAR_1940.0\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_albany, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_alexandria, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_allentown, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_alliance, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_altoona, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ames, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_amsterdam, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_anniston, al\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_appleton, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_arnold, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ashland, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ashland, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ashtabula, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_atlantic city, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_attleboro, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_auburn, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_augusta, ga\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_barberton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_batavia, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_baton rouge, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_beacon, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_beaver falls, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_bellaire, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_beloit, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_benton harbor, mi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_bethlehem, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_beverly, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_binghamton, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_boise, id\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_boone, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_boston, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_bradford, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_brainerd, mn\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_brockton, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_bucyrus, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_buffalo, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_burlington, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_butler, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cambridge, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cambridge, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_camden, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_campbell, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_canton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_carbondale, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_casper, wy\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cedar rapids, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_chelsea, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_chester, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cheyenne, wy\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_chicopee, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_chillicothe, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cincinnati, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cleveland heights, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cleveland, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_clifton, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_clinton, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_coatesville, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_coffeyville, ks\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cohoes, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_columbia, sc\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_columbus, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_connellsville, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_corning, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_corpus christi, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cortland, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_coshocton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_council bluffs, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cudahy, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_cuyahoga falls, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dallas, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_davenport, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dayton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dearborn, mi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_denver, co\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_des moines, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dover, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_du bois, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dubuque, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_dunkirk, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_duquesne, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_east cleveland, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_east liverpool, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_east orange, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_easton, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_eau claire, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_el paso, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_elizabeth, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_elmira, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_elyria, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_endicott, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_erie, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_euclid, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_eugene, or\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_everett, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fall river, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_farrell, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_findlay, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fitchburg, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_floral park, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fond du lac, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fort dodge, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fort madison, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fort smith, ar\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fostoria, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_franklin, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_freeport, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fremont, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_fulton, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_gadsden, al\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_gardner, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_garfield heights, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_gary, in\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_geneva, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_glen cove, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_glens falls, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_gloucester, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_gloversville, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_greeley, co\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_green bay, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_greensburg, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_greenville, sc\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hamilton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_harrisburg, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hastings, ne\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_haverhill, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hazleton, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hempstead, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hibbing, mn\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_holyoke, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hornell, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_houston, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hudson, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_hutchinson, ks\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ilion, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_indianapolis, in\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_iowa city, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ironton, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_irvington, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ithaca, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_jackson, mi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_janesville, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_jeannette, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_jersey city, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_johnson city, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_johnstown, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_johnstown, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_kansas city, ks\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_kearny, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_kenmore, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_kenosha, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_keokuk, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_kingston, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_klamath falls, or\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_la crosse, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lackawanna, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lafayette, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lake charles, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lakewood, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lancaster, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lancaster, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lawrence, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lebanon, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_leominster, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lima, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_little falls, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_little rock, ar\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lockport, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lorain, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lowell, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lynbrook, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_lynn, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_madison, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_malden, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_mamaroneck, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_manitowoc, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_mankato, mn\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_mansfield, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_marietta, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_marinette, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_marion, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_marlborough, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_marshalltown, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_martins ferry, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_mason city, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_massillon, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_mckeesport, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_meadville, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_medford, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_melrose, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_middletown, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_middletown, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_milwaukee, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_monroe, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_morristown, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_muscatine, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_nanticoke, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_new bedford, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_new castle, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_new philadelphia, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_new rochelle, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_new york, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newark, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newark, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newburgh, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newburyport, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newton, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_newton, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_niagara falls, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_niles, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_north adams, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_north little rock, ar\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_north tonawanda, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_northampton, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_norwood, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_nutley, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ogdensburg, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oil city, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_olean, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_omaha, ne\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oneida, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oneonta, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_orange, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_orlando, fl\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oshkosh, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oskaloosa, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ossining, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_oswego, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_ottumwa, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_painesville, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_parma, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_parsons, ks\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_paterson, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_peabody, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_peekskill, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_philadelphia, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pine bluff, ar\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_piqua, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pittsburgh, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pittsfield, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pittston, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_plattsburg, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pocatello, id\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_port chester, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_port huron, mi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_port jervis, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_portland, or\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_portsmouth, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_pottsville, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_poughkeepsie, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_quincy, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_racine, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_rahway, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_reading, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_revere, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_rochester, mn\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_rochester, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_rome, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_rutherford, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_salem, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_salem, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_salem, or\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_salt lake city, ut\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_san antonio, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_sandusky, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_saratoga springs, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_scranton, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_shaker heights, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_sharon, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_sheboygan, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_shorewood, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_shreveport, la\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_sioux city, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_somerville, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_south milwaukee, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_south orange, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_spartanburg, sc\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_springfield, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_springfield, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_st. augustine, fl\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_st. cloud, mn\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_steubenville, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_stevens point, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_struthers, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_sunbury, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_superior, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_syracuse, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_taunton, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_teaneck, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_tiffin, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_toledo, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_tonawanda, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_topeka, ks\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_trenton, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_troy, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_tuscaloosa, al\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_two rivers, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_union, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_uniontown, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_utica, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_waco, tx\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_waltham, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_warren, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_washington, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_waterloo, ia\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_watertown, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_watertown, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_watervliet, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_waukesha, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_wausau, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_wauwatosa, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_west allis, wi\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_west orange, nj\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_westfield, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_white plains, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_williamsport, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_woburn, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_wooster, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_worcester, ma\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_xenia, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_yonkers, ny\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_york, pa\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_youngstown, oh\": \"int64\",\n  \"city_zanesville, oh\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nWhat is the causal effect of municipal civil service reform adoption on the share of blue-collar municipal government jobs held by native-born white workers, estimated for municipalities whose adoption was externally induced (local compliers)?","response":"IV2SLS.from_formula('govt ~ 1 + pop + C(YEAR) + C(city) + [treat_actual ~ treat_assign]').fit(cov_type='robust')\ninfer__iv_2sls({\"dataset\": \"ref_iv\", \"y\": \"govt\", \"endog\": [\"treat_actual\"], \"instruments\": [\"treat_assign\"], \"exog\": [\"pop\", \"YEAR_1860.0\", \"YEAR_1870.0\", \"YEAR_1880.0\", \"YEAR_1900.0\", \"YEAR_1910.0\", \"YEAR_1920.0\", \"YEAR_1930.0\", \"YEAR_1940.0\", \"city_albany, ny\", \"city_alexandria, la\", \"city_allentown, pa\", \"city_alliance, oh\", \"city_altoona, pa\", \"city_ames, ia\", \"city_amsterdam, ny\", \"city_anniston, al\", \"city_appleton, wi\", \"city_arnold, pa\", \"city_ashland, oh\", \"city_ashland, wi\", \"city_ashtabula, oh\", \"city_atlantic city, nj\", \"city_attleboro, ma\", \"city_auburn, ny\", \"city_augusta, ga\", \"city_barberton, oh\", \"city_batavia, ny\", \"city_baton rouge, la\", \"city_beacon, ny\", \"city_beaver falls, pa\", \"city_bellaire, oh\", \"city_beloit, wi\", \"city_benton harbor, mi\", \"city_bethlehem, pa\", \"city_beverly, ma\", \"city_binghamton, ny\", \"city_boise, id\", \"city_boone, ia\", \"city_boston, ma\", \"city_bradford, pa\", \"city_brainerd, mn\", \"city_brockton, ma\", \"city_bucyrus, oh\", \"city_buffalo, ny\", \"city_burlington, ia\", \"city_butler, pa\", \"city_cambridge, ma\", \"city_cambridge, oh\", \"city_camden, nj\", \"city_campbell, oh\", \"city_canton, oh\", \"city_carbondale, pa\", \"city_casper, wy\", \"city_cedar rapids, ia\", \"city_chelsea, ma\", \"city_chester, pa\", \"city_cheyenne, wy\", \"city_chicopee, ma\", \"city_chillicothe, oh\", \"city_cincinnati, oh\", \"city_cleveland heights, oh\", \"city_cleveland, oh\", \"city_clifton, nj\", \"city_clinton, ia\", \"city_coatesville, pa\", \"city_coffeyville, ks\", \"city_cohoes, ny\", \"city_columbia, sc\", \"city_columbus, oh\", \"city_connellsville, pa\", \"city_corning, ny\", \"city_corpus christi, tx\", \"city_cortland, ny\", \"city_coshocton, oh\", \"city_council bluffs, ia\", \"city_cudahy, wi\", \"city_cuyahoga falls, oh\", \"city_dallas, tx\", \"city_davenport, ia\", \"city_dayton, oh\", \"city_dearborn, mi\", \"city_denver, co\", \"city_des moines, ia\", \"city_dover, nj\", \"city_du bois, pa\", \"city_dubuque, ia\", \"city_dunkirk, ny\", \"city_duquesne, pa\", \"city_east cleveland, oh\", \"city_east liverpool, oh\", \"city_east orange, nj\", \"city_easton, pa\", \"city_eau claire, wi\", \"city_el paso, tx\", \"city_elizabeth, nj\", \"city_elmira, ny\", \"city_elyria, oh\", \"city_endicott, ny\", \"city_erie, pa\", \"city_euclid, oh\", \"city_eugene, or\", \"city_everett, ma\", \"city_fall river, ma\", \"city_farrell, pa\", \"city_findlay, oh\", \"city_fitchburg, ma\", \"city_floral park, ny\", \"city_fond du lac, wi\", \"city_fort dodge, ia\", \"city_fort madison, ia\", \"city_fort smith, ar\", \"city_fostoria, oh\", \"city_franklin, pa\", \"city_freeport, ny\", \"city_fremont, oh\", \"city_fulton, ny\", \"city_gadsden, al\", \"city_gardner, ma\", \"city_garfield heights, oh\", \"city_gary, in\", \"city_geneva, ny\", \"city_glen cove, ny\", \"city_glens falls, ny\", \"city_gloucester, ma\", \"city_gloversville, ny\", \"city_greeley, co\", \"city_green bay, wi\", \"city_greensburg, pa\", \"city_greenville, sc\", \"city_hamilton, oh\", \"city_harrisburg, pa\", \"city_hastings, ne\", \"city_haverhill, ma\", \"city_hazleton, pa\", \"city_hempstead, ny\", \"city_hibbing, mn\", \"city_holyoke, ma\", \"city_hornell, ny\", \"city_houston, tx\", \"city_hudson, ny\", \"city_hutchinson, ks\", \"city_ilion, ny\", \"city_indianapolis, in\", \"city_iowa city, ia\", \"city_ironton, oh\", \"city_irvington, nj\", \"city_ithaca, ny\", \"city_jackson, mi\", \"city_janesville, wi\", \"city_jeannette, pa\", \"city_jersey city, nj\", \"city_johnson city, ny\", \"city_johnstown, ny\", \"city_johnstown, pa\", \"city_kansas city, ks\", \"city_kearny, nj\", \"city_kenmore, ny\", \"city_kenosha, wi\", \"city_keokuk, ia\", \"city_kingston, ny\", \"city_klamath falls, or\", \"city_la crosse, wi\", \"city_lackawanna, ny\", \"city_lafayette, la\", \"city_lake charles, la\", \"city_lakewood, oh\", \"city_lancaster, oh\", \"city_lancaster, pa\", \"city_lawrence, ma\", \"city_lebanon, pa\", \"city_leominster, ma\", \"city_lima, oh\", \"city_little falls, ny\", \"city_little rock, ar\", \"city_lockport, ny\", \"city_lorain, oh\", \"city_lowell, ma\", \"city_lynbrook, ny\", \"city_lynn, ma\", \"city_madison, wi\", \"city_malden, ma\", \"city_mamaroneck, ny\", \"city_manitowoc, wi\", \"city_mankato, mn\", \"city_mansfield, oh\", \"city_marietta, oh\", \"city_marinette, wi\", \"city_marion, oh\", \"city_marlborough, ma\", \"city_marshalltown, ia\", \"city_martins ferry, oh\", \"city_mason city, ia\", \"city_massillon, oh\", \"city_mckeesport, pa\", \"city_meadville, pa\", \"city_medford, ma\", \"city_melrose, ma\", \"city_middletown, ny\", \"city_middletown, oh\", \"city_milwaukee, wi\", \"city_monroe, la\", \"city_morristown, nj\", \"city_muscatine, ia\", \"city_nanticoke, pa\", \"city_new bedford, ma\", \"city_new castle, pa\", \"city_new philadelphia, oh\", \"city_new rochelle, ny\", \"city_new york, ny\", \"city_newark, nj\", \"city_newark, oh\", \"city_newburgh, ny\", \"city_newburyport, ma\", \"city_newton, ia\", \"city_newton, ma\", \"city_niagara falls, ny\", \"city_niles, oh\", \"city_north adams, ma\", \"city_north little rock, ar\", \"city_north tonawanda, ny\", \"city_northampton, ma\", \"city_norwood, oh\", \"city_nutley, nj\", \"city_ogdensburg, ny\", \"city_oil city, pa\", \"city_olean, ny\", \"city_omaha, ne\", \"city_oneida, ny\", \"city_oneonta, ny\", \"city_orange, nj\", \"city_orlando, fl\", \"city_oshkosh, wi\", \"city_oskaloosa, ia\", \"city_ossining, ny\", \"city_oswego, ny\", \"city_ottumwa, ia\", \"city_painesville, oh\", \"city_parma, oh\", \"city_parsons, ks\", \"city_paterson, nj\", \"city_peabody, ma\", \"city_peekskill, ny\", \"city_philadelphia, pa\", \"city_pine bluff, ar\", \"city_piqua, oh\", \"city_pittsburgh, pa\", \"city_pittsfield, ma\", \"city_pittston, pa\", \"city_plattsburg, ny\", \"city_pocatello, id\", \"city_port chester, ny\", \"city_port huron, mi\", \"city_port jervis, ny\", \"city_portland, or\", \"city_portsmouth, oh\", \"city_pottsville, pa\", \"city_poughkeepsie, ny\", \"city_quincy, ma\", \"city_racine, wi\", \"city_rahway, nj\", \"city_reading, pa\", \"city_revere, ma\", \"city_rochester, mn\", \"city_rochester, ny\", \"city_rome, ny\", \"city_rutherford, nj\", \"city_salem, ma\", \"city_salem, oh\", \"city_salem, or\", \"city_salt lake city, ut\", \"city_san antonio, tx\", \"city_sandusky, oh\", \"city_saratoga springs, ny\", \"city_scranton, pa\", \"city_shaker heights, oh\", \"city_sharon, pa\", \"city_sheboygan, wi\", \"city_shorewood, wi\", \"city_shreveport, la\", \"city_sioux city, ia\", \"city_somerville, ma\", \"city_south milwaukee, wi\", \"city_south orange, nj\", \"city_spartanburg, sc\", \"city_springfield, ma\", \"city_springfield, oh\", \"city_st. augustine, fl\", \"city_st. cloud, mn\", \"city_steubenville, oh\", \"city_stevens point, wi\", \"city_struthers, oh\", \"city_sunbury, pa\", \"city_superior, wi\", \"city_syracuse, ny\", \"city_taunton, ma\", \"city_teaneck, nj\", \"city_tiffin, oh\", \"city_toledo, oh\", \"city_tonawanda, ny\", \"city_topeka, ks\", \"city_trenton, nj\", \"city_troy, ny\", \"city_tuscaloosa, al\", \"city_two rivers, wi\", \"city_union, nj\", \"city_uniontown, pa\", \"city_utica, ny\", \"city_waco, tx\", \"city_waltham, ma\", \"city_warren, oh\", \"city_washington, pa\", \"city_waterloo, ia\", \"city_watertown, ny\", \"city_watertown, wi\", \"city_watervliet, ny\", \"city_waukesha, wi\", \"city_wausau, wi\", \"city_wauwatosa, wi\", \"city_west allis, wi\", \"city_west orange, nj\", \"city_westfield, ma\", \"city_white plains, ny\", \"city_williamsport, pa\", \"city_woburn, ma\", \"city_wooster, oh\", \"city_worcester, ma\", \"city_xenia, oh\", \"city_yonkers, ny\", \"city_york, pa\", \"city_youngstown, oh\", \"city_zanesville, oh\"], \"se\": \"HC1\"})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_7c954246","text":"IV2SLS.from_formula('govt ~ 1 + pop + C(YEAR) + C(city) + [treat_actual ~ treat_assign]').fit(cov_type='robust')","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","args":{"dataset":"ref_iv","y":"govt","endog":["treat_actual"],"instruments":["treat_assign"],"exog":["pop","YEAR_1860.0","YEAR_1870.0","YEAR_1880.0","YEAR_1900.0","YEAR_1910.0","YEAR_1920.0","YEAR_1930.0","YEAR_1940.0","city_albany, ny","city_alexandria, la","city_allentown, pa","city_alliance, oh","city_altoona, pa","city_ames, ia","city_amsterdam, ny","city_anniston, al","city_appleton, wi","city_arnold, pa","city_ashland, oh","city_ashland, wi","city_ashtabula, oh","city_atlantic city, nj","city_attleboro, ma","city_auburn, ny","city_augusta, ga","city_barberton, oh","city_batavia, ny","city_baton rouge, la","city_beacon, ny","city_beaver falls, pa","city_bellaire, oh","city_beloit, wi","city_benton harbor, mi","city_bethlehem, pa","city_beverly, ma","city_binghamton, ny","city_boise, id","city_boone, ia","city_boston, ma","city_bradford, pa","city_brainerd, mn","city_brockton, ma","city_bucyrus, oh","city_buffalo, ny","city_burlington, ia","city_butler, pa","city_cambridge, ma","city_cambridge, oh","city_camden, nj","city_campbell, oh","city_canton, oh","city_carbondale, pa","city_casper, wy","city_cedar rapids, ia","city_chelsea, ma","city_chester, pa","city_cheyenne, wy","city_chicopee, ma","city_chillicothe, oh","city_cincinnati, oh","city_cleveland heights, oh","city_cleveland, oh","city_clifton, nj","city_clinton, ia","city_coatesville, pa","city_coffeyville, ks","city_cohoes, ny","city_columbia, sc","city_columbus, oh","city_connellsville, pa","city_corning, ny","city_corpus christi, tx","city_cortland, ny","city_coshocton, oh","city_council bluffs, ia","city_cudahy, wi","city_cuyahoga falls, oh","city_dallas, tx","city_davenport, ia","city_dayton, oh","city_dearborn, mi","city_denver, co","city_des moines, ia","city_dover, nj","city_du bois, pa","city_dubuque, ia","city_dunkirk, ny","city_duquesne, pa","city_east cleveland, oh","city_east liverpool, oh","city_east orange, nj","city_easton, pa","city_eau claire, wi","city_el paso, tx","city_elizabeth, nj","city_elmira, ny","city_elyria, oh","city_endicott, ny","city_erie, pa","city_euclid, oh","city_eugene, or","city_everett, ma","city_fall river, ma","city_farrell, pa","city_findlay, oh","city_fitchburg, ma","city_floral park, ny","city_fond du lac, wi","city_fort dodge, ia","city_fort madison, ia","city_fort smith, ar","city_fostoria, oh","city_franklin, pa","city_freeport, ny","city_fremont, oh","city_fulton, ny","city_gadsden, al","city_gardner, ma","city_garfield heights, oh","city_gary, in","city_geneva, ny","city_glen cove, ny","city_glens falls, ny","city_gloucester, ma","city_gloversville, ny","city_greeley, co","city_green bay, wi","city_greensburg, pa","city_greenville, sc","city_hamilton, oh","city_harrisburg, pa","city_hastings, ne","city_haverhill, ma","city_hazleton, pa","city_hempstead, ny","city_hibbing, mn","city_holyoke, ma","city_hornell, ny","city_houston, tx","city_hudson, ny","city_hutchinson, ks","city_ilion, ny","city_indianapolis, in","city_iowa city, ia","city_ironton, oh","city_irvington, nj","city_ithaca, ny","city_jackson, mi","city_janesville, wi","city_jeannette, pa","city_jersey city, nj","city_johnson city, ny","city_johnstown, ny","city_johnstown, pa","city_kansas city, ks","city_kearny, nj","city_kenmore, ny","city_kenosha, wi","city_keokuk, ia","city_kingston, ny","city_klamath falls, or","city_la crosse, wi","city_lackawanna, ny","city_lafayette, la","city_lake charles, la","city_lakewood, oh","city_lancaster, oh","city_lancaster, pa","city_lawrence, ma","city_lebanon, pa","city_leominster, ma","city_lima, oh","city_little falls, ny","city_little rock, ar","city_lockport, ny","city_lorain, oh","city_lowell, ma","city_lynbrook, ny","city_lynn, ma","city_madison, wi","city_malden, ma","city_mamaroneck, ny","city_manitowoc, wi","city_mankato, mn","city_mansfield, oh","city_marietta, oh","city_marinette, wi","city_marion, oh","city_marlborough, ma","city_marshalltown, ia","city_martins ferry, oh","city_mason city, ia","city_massillon, oh","city_mckeesport, pa","city_meadville, pa","city_medford, ma","city_melrose, ma","city_middletown, ny","city_middletown, oh","city_milwaukee, wi","city_monroe, la","city_morristown, nj","city_muscatine, ia","city_nanticoke, pa","city_new bedford, ma","city_new castle, pa","city_new philadelphia, oh","city_new rochelle, ny","city_new york, ny","city_newark, nj","city_newark, oh","city_newburgh, ny","city_newburyport, ma","city_newton, ia","city_newton, ma","city_niagara falls, ny","city_niles, oh","city_north adams, ma","city_north little rock, ar","city_north tonawanda, ny","city_northampton, ma","city_norwood, oh","city_nutley, nj","city_ogdensburg, ny","city_oil city, pa","city_olean, ny","city_omaha, ne","city_oneida, ny","city_oneonta, ny","city_orange, nj","city_orlando, fl","city_oshkosh, wi","city_oskaloosa, ia","city_ossining, ny","city_oswego, ny","city_ottumwa, ia","city_painesville, oh","city_parma, oh","city_parsons, ks","city_paterson, nj","city_peabody, ma","city_peekskill, ny","city_philadelphia, pa","city_pine bluff, ar","city_piqua, oh","city_pittsburgh, pa","city_pittsfield, ma","city_pittston, pa","city_plattsburg, ny","city_pocatello, id","city_port chester, ny","city_port huron, mi","city_port jervis, ny","city_portland, or","city_portsmouth, oh","city_pottsville, pa","city_poughkeepsie, ny","city_quincy, ma","city_racine, wi","city_rahway, nj","city_reading, pa","city_revere, ma","city_rochester, mn","city_rochester, ny","city_rome, ny","city_rutherford, nj","city_salem, ma","city_salem, oh","city_salem, or","city_salt lake city, ut","city_san antonio, tx","city_sandusky, oh","city_saratoga springs, ny","city_scranton, pa","city_shaker heights, oh","city_sharon, pa","city_sheboygan, wi","city_shorewood, wi","city_shreveport, la","city_sioux city, 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