{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0023":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| complexo_id | Stable numeric identifier for each favela complex (a cluster of adjacent favelas) used as the unit of observation across months. |\n| upp_post | Binary indicator equal to 1 in months when a Pacifying Police Unit is formally active in the complexo, and 0 otherwise. Reflects the period of permanent community-policing presence established by the state. |\n| bope | Binary indicator equal to 1 in months when the Special Police Operations Battalion (BOPE) or the armed forces maintained an occupation/stabilization presence in the complexo, and 0 otherwise. In the administrative records used here, these occupation periods are coded separately from the permanent posts. |\n| date | Integer month index running from 540 through 677 in this extract; an increase of 1 denotes one month. Use these recorded indices to select periods; no calendar-date conversion is specified here. |\n| autos_rate2 | Monthly rate per 100,000 residents of deaths officially registered as \u201cAutos de Resist\u00eancia\u201d (fatalities during police operations) within the complexo. Incidents were geocoded to complexo boundaries and aggregated by month; rates use population estimates as denominators. |\n| complexo2 | Auxiliary numeric field carried over from the source export related to the complexo dimension; no substantive documentation provided in the materials. |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis panel assembles monthly records for favela complexes in Rio de Janeiro during a period when the state created permanent policing posts in selected territories. It integrates two administrative sources: (1) public security records on deaths registered during police operations (locally termed \u201cAutos de Resist\u00eancia\u201d in the period covered) and (2) program logs detailing when permanent posts were active and when occupation/stabilization forces (BOPE or the armed forces) were present. Security incidents were geocoded to mapped complex boundaries, aggregated to the complex\u2013month level, and converted to rates per 100,000 using census-based population estimates for each complex.\n\nThe spatial unit\u2014a complexo\u2014groups adjacent favelas that share borders and, in practice, correspond to the operational footprint of policing deployments. The temporal resolution is monthly, spanning indices 540\u2013677, a phase that includes the roll\u2011out and consolidation of permanent posts and earlier occupation phases. In the coding scheme used here, occupation/stabilization months and permanent\u2011post months are tracked with nonoverlapping indicators.\n\nFor the comparison centered on first UPP activation at index 589, the earlier window is 577\u2013588 and the later window is 589\u2013600; comparison complexes remain without an active UPP through 600. For first activation at 606, the windows are 594\u2013605 and 606\u2013617, with comparison complexes remaining without an active UPP through 617. Each window contains 12 months. The outcome for each complex and window is its mean monthly fatal-shooting rate, not a cumulative count; the occupation indicator is likewise averaged within each window.\n\nMeasurement follows local administrative definitions in effect at the time. \u201cAutos de Resist\u00eancia\u201d reflects fatalities recorded as resulting from confrontations with police; these events were manually geocoded and then aggregated to complex\u2013month cells. Rates normalize counts by resident population to facilitate comparisons across differently sized complexes and over time. As with any administrative system, users should be mindful of potential changes in reporting practices, geocoding precision, and population denominators when interpreting temporal or cross\u2011sectional variation.\n","file_sha256":"713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_panel":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"},{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"how":"left","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_td"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"query":"td == 606 or td != td or td > 617"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_pre"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_post"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"td","value":606},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"id":["complexo_id"],"j":"post","stubs":["y","bope"]},"op":"reshape_long"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}]},"ref_post":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"date >= 606 and date <= 617"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope1"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}]},"ref_pre":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"date >= 594 and date <= 605"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope0"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}]},"ref_td":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"upp_post == 1"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"date","fn":"min","name":"td"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among favela complexes where a UPP first became active at month index 606, how did the average monthly rate of fatal police shootings (Autos de Resistencia) per 100,000 residents change from month indices 594\u2013605 to 606\u2013617, relative to complexes that remained without an active UPP through 617, accounting for BOPE or armed-forces occupation?","question_sha256":"0ed5cc324ce6cf23dd4d0f0d37c19906f9312fc20789aeccfe4a4d37e2ca1210","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","task_sha256":"09b4dd955b27bc578788ecba37e9142a77dba0da7950b8122cf8f065a532d65c","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.546695Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_9b6e0315","dataset_id":"ref_td","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"a5a16e216dcdad72f0250b5ec46bf9ee69061bfc3afb800a71a5d2cd7027847b","index":0,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.546695Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_b2b33d9a","dataset_id":"ref_td","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":1,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.559652Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_96e31635","dataset_id":"ref_td","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"4d2583acd8a222a8ac6361ea9d020797128a4e6ed60f00f4e2024d37a67a3f3b","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":2,"rows_after":2127,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.571353Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"upp_post == 1"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_e2df08be","dataset_id":"ref_td","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"1ccb5551ea291e4af95d21fcb5503e9c4f31d4200790ca9f81a090547887916e","frame_sha256_before":"4d2583acd8a222a8ac6361ea9d020797128a4e6ed60f00f4e2024d37a67a3f3b","index":3,"rows_after":37,"rows_before":2127,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.583930Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"date","fn":"min","name":"td"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_04e9171c","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"a5a16e216dcdad72f0250b5ec46bf9ee69061bfc3afb800a71a5d2cd7027847b","index":0,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":5,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.604285Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_c8d3692a","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":1,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.621813Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_baa2a664","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3d8402cee8e45d2c10f1adde7d6be4f566666c0ae69d17d7bdf8913c00e697b2","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":2,"rows_after":3420,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.631991Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"date >= 594 and date <= 605"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_6ef576ae","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"b31636c80119dac6b2bedc60eb27ba63820cf9e049fd723ad5b774d1a7667b27","frame_sha256_before":"3d8402cee8e45d2c10f1adde7d6be4f566666c0ae69d17d7bdf8913c00e697b2","index":3,"rows_after":285,"rows_before":3420,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":8,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.641225Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope0"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_16ad5d5b","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"a5a16e216dcdad72f0250b5ec46bf9ee69061bfc3afb800a71a5d2cd7027847b","index":0,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.692396Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_763816b7","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":1,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":10,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.738537Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_ea7e5ff5","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"e510be771875f43b2e83c6df63f6f8461bd53ada01b1365b1ebb6438e119b86e","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":2,"rows_after":3420,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":11,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.742536Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"date >= 606 and date <= 617"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1ac5ef11","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"90a230e2dc74003f91c9e57f45290224c4c4277396400b6279a21115e2601ad8","frame_sha256_before":"e510be771875f43b2e83c6df63f6f8461bd53ada01b1365b1ebb6438e119b86e","index":3,"rows_after":285,"rows_before":3420,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":12,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.750833Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope1"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_188030c2","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"a5a16e216dcdad72f0250b5ec46bf9ee69061bfc3afb800a71a5d2cd7027847b","index":0,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":13,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.767740Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_45bd6f0f","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":1,"rows_after":36956,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":14,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.780778Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["autos_rate2"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_58c927dc","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"301a2801ada7f1927e40c3a26aa60977d10d3a5b5b031ba1c0c6219ff67446c7","frame_sha256_before":"3b1627f1ee66af16bff94cd630281c663b2cbf3c79903945489ee9ececed4ae0","index":2,"rows_after":286,"rows_before":36956,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":15,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.812809Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["complexo_id"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_dceab227","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"137accc08167a07d0d7b0371a0ac11dce745e6da8261cd3441b2785abefc8fe8","frame_sha256_before":"301a2801ada7f1927e40c3a26aa60977d10d3a5b5b031ba1c0c6219ff67446c7","index":3,"rows_after":286,"rows_before":286,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":16,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.832055Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["complexo_id"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_d6958232","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"2cd0217c33eb5e43704c523e68d5b43c1c8a66b6be585923324710fa969ced72","frame_sha256_before":"137accc08167a07d0d7b0371a0ac11dce745e6da8261cd3441b2785abefc8fe8","index":4,"rows_after":286,"rows_before":286,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":17,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.832942Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"left","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_td"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_891ad73f","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"1859c4d25359647b425a2c23c1c06b5c2e5589ac86b84cc8dab0e254c92b4d22","frame_sha256_before":"2cd0217c33eb5e43704c523e68d5b43c1c8a66b6be585923324710fa969ced72","index":5,"rows_after":272,"rows_before":286,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":18,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.834653Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"td == 606 or td != td or td > 617"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_c4e86efb","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"b0c994396d24c5e76fcc3757b2fae6bf41b7deb5419b41ed4a341435c6806761","frame_sha256_before":"1859c4d25359647b425a2c23c1c06b5c2e5589ac86b84cc8dab0e254c92b4d22","index":6,"rows_after":271,"rows_before":272,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":19,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.835300Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_pre"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_03f3b6de","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"74f3e1da70aa7113f8f0cca78ffd3fbd4b4f2ce787cc440d0c4a586f2aebedca","frame_sha256_before":"b0c994396d24c5e76fcc3757b2fae6bf41b7deb5419b41ed4a341435c6806761","index":7,"rows_after":271,"rows_before":271,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":20,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.836798Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_post"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_b5f31eff","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"cee8b2e1635df8f68d541231fb63c6d900172810e83b2c93c4e9c5071698b5dd","frame_sha256_before":"74f3e1da70aa7113f8f0cca78ffd3fbd4b4f2ce787cc440d0c4a586f2aebedca","index":8,"rows_after":271,"rows_before":271,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":21,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.838127Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"td","value":606},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_499027af","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3c27cd326a9ad422bd579b6fe386c546bb21136c0f76551e94e816efd93ab838","frame_sha256_before":"cee8b2e1635df8f68d541231fb63c6d900172810e83b2c93c4e9c5071698b5dd","index":9,"rows_after":271,"rows_before":271,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":22,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.838778Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_bc405610","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"a05d629f2aefc76583807901e4b741356509fe2867c3edc2f23a3a943026f294","frame_sha256_before":"3c27cd326a9ad422bd579b6fe386c546bb21136c0f76551e94e816efd93ab838","index":10,"rows_after":542,"rows_before":271,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":23,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.839392Z","transform":{"args":{"id":["complexo_id"],"j":"post","stubs":["y","bope"]},"op":"reshape_long"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_caed4ef7","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"08a9abb05cbf0e6ac722e2f9623361707b093718d3946fa0affd09deadbafbfb","frame_sha256_before":"a05d629f2aefc76583807901e4b741356509fe2867c3edc2f23a3a943026f294","index":11,"rows_after":542,"rows_before":542,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":24,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.849888Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_79383644","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["63753e943d89899b80517869b33914f28eac1155d5ed0edcd9c4308a4b3c88a3"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"f8293cbed10633a906a4a12e9b8ad10c3b3ac93caad1289b8d2485f5d7614d45","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, interaction, bope]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=unit, use_t=True) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"complexo_id","controls":["treated","post","bope"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["interaction"],"y":"y"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":25,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.881747Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":"complexo_id","controls":["treated","post","bope"],"dataset":"ref_panel","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["interaction"],"y":"y"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_526ed370","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_panel":"08a9abb05cbf0e6ac722e2f9623361707b093718d3946fa0affd09deadbafbfb"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":4.116542171686888,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"ea1dbae09407a79de8b8ddf4170b8653c359ad9444f62faf42c4cbc6dde5e685","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"06a0eff9f0f6bb87f5f17db36b1fbf43cf3f9db543f32acc2c95da8990e8da51","rationale":"sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, interaction, bope]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=unit, use_t=True) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across clusters of 'complexo_id' and may be correlated within them"],"call_id":"call_526ed370","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":542},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":5},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.0015502966885545533},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":537},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'complexo_id'","value":"cluster"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"271 clusters of 'complexo_id'","value":271}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-1.352733175019077,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-2.995404180366738,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-2.1740686776929077,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":542.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":5.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de interaction na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de y.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.41717801834785523,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.17403749899264342}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-2.1740686776929077},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9687890218342643},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.41717801834785523}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 270 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.interaction","label":"Coefficient on interaction in the regression of y","se":0.41717801834785523,"unit":"","value":-2.1740686776929077}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":1.9859817759605338,"ci_low":0.9141499337746558,"coef":1.4500658548675949,"p":2.1052321435964518e-07,"se":0.27220586622005927,"t":5.3270925972451995,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-1.352733175019077,"ci_low":-2.995404180366738,"coef":-2.1740686776929077,"p":3.728118372407259e-07,"se":0.41717801834785523,"t":-5.211369204693105,"term":"interaction"},{"ci_high":1.3489592590195358,"ci_low":0.293920233449696,"coef":0.8214397462346159,"p":0.0023914060858454622,"se":0.26794110843499375,"t":3.065747361547206,"term":"treated"},{"ci_high":0.694998864056584,"ci_low":-0.4938017536913518,"coef":0.10059855518261604,"p":0.7392379172187712,"se":0.30191163313181324,"t":0.333205296328198,"term":"post"},{"ci_high":-1.108785352233355,"ci_low":-2.8672441260078227,"coef":-1.988014739120589,"p":1.2481984273276874e-05,"se":0.44658385288438934,"t":-4.451604611945613,"term":"bope"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"c8fe1cbe40db7d8b65cb0b8a515e1bfd2bf31b2e4ee086935af794b02bc9208c","result_sha256":"abf49ef4a208541d74cf7eb415efd19b0ee55f310e217852d971d838b83b4507","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":26,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.884852Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_79383644"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_bb79b943","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["63753e943d89899b80517869b33914f28eac1155d5ed0edcd9c4308a4b3c88a3","4da8e707a2826389435390b52c0ab0d532febaa27e73a6f2d609a690d2e7c763","61333fba7b9f18107417c493796bcdd75ed12279bc6185fa30653c52769cee47"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"f8293cbed10633a906a4a12e9b8ad10c3b3ac93caad1289b8d2485f5d7614d45","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -2,174. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_526ed370:coef.interaction"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":27,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.889166Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_34bc6ed6","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["-2,174"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":28,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.890927Z","turn_id":"call_bb79b943","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -2,174. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_526ed370","ci_high":-1.352733175019077,"ci_low":-2.995404180366738,"formatted":-2.1740686776929077,"key":"coef.interaction","ref":"call_526ed370:coef.interaction","se":0.41717801834785523,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":-2.1740686776929077},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_526ed370:coef.interaction"],"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":29,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.891259Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":30,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.891259Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"-2.174068678 in [-2.991737594, -1.356399762]?","expected":[-2.9917375936547095,-1.3563997617311254],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-2.1740686776929077,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-2.9917375936547095,-1.3563997617311254],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_526ed370","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":31,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.891259Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"-2.174068678 vs -2.1740686776929175","expected":-2.1740686776929175,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-2.1740686776929077,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q045.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.17178018347853e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_526ed370","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":32,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.891259Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"0.4171780183 vs 0.41717801834785306","expected":0.41717801834785306,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.41717801834785523,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q045.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.17178018347853e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_526ed370","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":33,"task_id":"crb_papers.q045","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.891259Z"}
