{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0024":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| turnout | County presidential-election turnout rate in the general election, measured as total ballots cast divided by the county voting-age population (unit interval 0\u20131). Votes and voting-age population were assembled from standard U.S. election and Census tabulations for each election year. |\n| tr_ar | Indicator (0/1) that at least one Black church arson incident was recorded in the county within the election-cycle window associated with that year. Incidents are drawn from the U.S. Department of Justice\u2019s National Church Arson Task Force records (primarily 1995\u20132000) and mapped to the relevant presidential-election cycle for comparability across counties and years. |\n| perc_bl | Share of county residents identifying as Black or African American in that year (0\u20131), based on U.S. Census/ACS population statistics for the county. |\n| pop_tot | Total county population (persons) in that year, from U.S. Census/ACS population counts. |\n| income | County median household income in U.S. dollars for that year (nominal dollars as reported by the Census/ACS). |\n| fips | Five-digit Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) code uniquely identifying the county (state\u2013county concatenated code). |\n| year | Presidential election year for the observation (e.g., 1980, 1984, \u2026, 2016). |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis file is a county-by\u2013presidential-election-year panel covering U.S. general elections from 1980 through 2016. Each record is keyed by a county\u2019s five-digit FIPS code and the presidential election year. Turnout is constructed from county-level counts of ballots cast in the presidential general election combined with county voting-age population from the U.S. Census Bureau. Using voting-age population standardizes the denominator across states, which vary in registration rules and reporting conventions, but note that VAP includes individuals ineligible to vote (e.g., noncitizens), a common feature of administrative turnout measures.\n\nDemographic indicators\u2014total population, the share identifying as Black or African American, and median household income\u2014are taken from decennial Census and American Community Survey tabulations aligned to the election year. Income is recorded in nominal dollars for the reported year.\n\nThe Black church arson indicator comes from administrative records compiled by the U.S. Department of Justice\u2019s National Church Arson Task Force established in the mid-1990s. Those incident locations are assigned to counties and linked to the presidential-election cycle that encompasses the incident window to ensure a consistent temporal frame across units. Because the Task Force\u2019s comprehensive catalog primarily spans 1995\u20132000, county-years outside that period are generally coded as having no recorded incident.\n\nUsers should be aware that counties occasionally experience boundary changes or renamings over long panels; the dataset relies on FIPS coding to maintain consistent identification. As with most historical administrative compilations, reporting conventions can vary across states and years; the assembly here harmonizes these inputs to produce a cohesive, national county-level panel suitable for studying election-period patterns alongside population and community characteristics.","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_evp":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"year <= 1996"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"tr_ar","fn":"max","name":"evp"}],"by":["fips"]},"op":"collapse"}]},"ref_panel":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"year in [1992, 1996]"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"how":"left","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_years"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"query":"nyears == 2"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_pre"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_post"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"how":"left","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_evp"},"op":"merge"},{"args":{"query":"tr_pre == 0 and (tr_post == 1 or (tr_post == 0 and evp == 0))"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"tr_post","value":1},"name":"treated_group","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":1996},"name":"post","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","perc_bl_pre"]},"name":"post_x_perc_bl_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","pop_tot_pre"]},"name":"post_x_pop_tot_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","income_pre"]},"name":"post_x_income_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"},{"args":{"args":{"columns":["treated_group","post"]},"name":"did","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}]},"ref_post":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"year == 1996"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"columns":["fips","tr_ar"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"map":{"tr_ar":"tr_post"}},"op":"rename"}]},"ref_pre":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"year == 1992"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"columns":["fips","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"map":{"income":"income_pre","perc_bl":"perc_bl_pre","pop_tot":"pop_tot_pre","tr_ar":"tr_pre"}},"op":"rename"}]},"ref_years":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"d73be27ea1d43f15d8e48b09dfc8299de15152438ea0d0b908fcad88c89b3c43","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"year in [1992, 1996]"},"op":"filter"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"turnout","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["fips","year"]},"op":"collapse"},{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["fips"]},"op":"collapse"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"How did county presidential-election turnout change between 1992 and 1996 in counties that experienced a recorded Black church arson incident, compared with counties that did not experience such incidents during that period?","question_sha256":"dd6ff19c5166e5a7d63e30d1519e71664b2b732af6f6d2eacca27568f95d7bd3","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","task_sha256":"1084cc549eaf4af71328fca013965d5b3c7824bc7715c5af5ea6bca593905370","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.748930Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_98dc8cee","dataset_id":"ref_years","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":0,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.748930Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_6b8ece49","dataset_id":"ref_years","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":1,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.765272Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_ad4f9816","dataset_id":"ref_years","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"8f00fce3da380db83cd6d1c30dce47353ddfb7223035f5a87cbd754f72f58b28","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":2,"rows_after":5766,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.776852Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"year in [1992, 1996]"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_befa9a80","dataset_id":"ref_years","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"67f643a4c73aaf879b58a4c9f34f3caf61221de414bbdf76acdd2336f5f2327c","frame_sha256_before":"8f00fce3da380db83cd6d1c30dce47353ddfb7223035f5a87cbd754f72f58b28","index":3,"rows_after":5766,"rows_before":5766,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.786901Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"turnout","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["fips","year"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_21fb07f3","dataset_id":"ref_years","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"4ac28a548a056afcdf25632f5b5057f63c7f8f953145a667d07d7fd92297ed88","frame_sha256_before":"67f643a4c73aaf879b58a4c9f34f3caf61221de414bbdf76acdd2336f5f2327c","index":4,"rows_after":2884,"rows_before":5766,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":5,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.818819Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["fips"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_11a1fb92","dataset_id":"ref_evp","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":0,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.853472Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_dedcf24f","dataset_id":"ref_evp","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":1,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.893242Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_afec3840","dataset_id":"ref_evp","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"a018b48e55a7b96e0cc2cb675edb69cf058804dafe216d3fb13747c1b63cdb3e","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":2,"rows_after":14400,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":8,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.901884Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"year <= 1996"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_62cc2ddf","dataset_id":"ref_evp","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"79a35451bda61e720c194274661d52c2694c3e414657aca0511c4d066f5935d7","frame_sha256_before":"a018b48e55a7b96e0cc2cb675edb69cf058804dafe216d3fb13747c1b63cdb3e","index":3,"rows_after":2889,"rows_before":14400,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.931581Z","transform":{"args":{"aggs":[{"column":"tr_ar","fn":"max","name":"evp"}],"by":["fips"]},"op":"collapse"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_255b9d0b","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":0,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":10,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.948894Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_76825c8b","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":1,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":11,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.955762Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_204e2464","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"905b6e5130d94f9333050bcd5655ac63e9b6a3bb0959fce6fca301ca2351ac78","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":2,"rows_after":2882,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":12,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.963219Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"year == 1992"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_605884b7","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"d425b9251fd35a027ee92876e8ef413bb6bb27a6affc7fd4ceee3cb559581e46","frame_sha256_before":"905b6e5130d94f9333050bcd5655ac63e9b6a3bb0959fce6fca301ca2351ac78","index":3,"rows_after":2882,"rows_before":2882,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":13,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.967069Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["fips","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_75e6904f","dataset_id":"ref_pre","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"fd371983f9de95a110ba49c922fffca28b55739d63a7483b8390c20a4890f1d4","frame_sha256_before":"d425b9251fd35a027ee92876e8ef413bb6bb27a6affc7fd4ceee3cb559581e46","index":4,"rows_after":2882,"rows_before":2882,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":14,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.968527Z","transform":{"args":{"map":{"income":"income_pre","perc_bl":"perc_bl_pre","pop_tot":"pop_tot_pre","tr_ar":"tr_pre"}},"op":"rename"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1d043bb7","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":0,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":15,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.980998Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1f562df4","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":1,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":16,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.986715Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_010b6d5d","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"87c1db8f0e6e12c523dc9c00941360c5981a38b5189115230af46dbc9afdb553","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":2,"rows_after":2884,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":17,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:28.999773Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"year == 1996"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_8380e2eb","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"9d43066f5d64e2133a9bfc863cda69dff30dae30613433fbbf3849cdad92564d","frame_sha256_before":"87c1db8f0e6e12c523dc9c00941360c5981a38b5189115230af46dbc9afdb553","index":3,"rows_after":2884,"rows_before":2884,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":18,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.006392Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["fips","tr_ar"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_09085c45","dataset_id":"ref_post","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"fbefe8eb090996c113915427cabf8b7523bbb74e5b4ce58ca1e5663f0de4484a","frame_sha256_before":"9d43066f5d64e2133a9bfc863cda69dff30dae30613433fbbf3849cdad92564d","index":4,"rows_after":2884,"rows_before":2884,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":19,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.007634Z","transform":{"args":{"map":{"tr_ar":"tr_post"}},"op":"rename"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1e428deb","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":0,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":20,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.024324Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","perc_bl","pop_tot","income","fips","year"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_02dc87f1","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":1,"rows_after":27068,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":21,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.038882Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["turnout","tr_ar","fips","year"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_9bcdf5ee","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"8f00fce3da380db83cd6d1c30dce47353ddfb7223035f5a87cbd754f72f58b28","frame_sha256_before":"7cb9b7f722be955af81bec901a328b09e0bc242e4ae5dcc03665962716f8a554","index":2,"rows_after":5766,"rows_before":27068,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":22,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.053926Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"year in [1992, 1996]"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_75552206","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"ed34a9b99b09a06feaf55abfdf26bace5803090e0a326558d8f5e6dfe234e0d8","frame_sha256_before":"8f00fce3da380db83cd6d1c30dce47353ddfb7223035f5a87cbd754f72f58b28","index":3,"rows_after":5766,"rows_before":5766,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":23,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.076921Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"left","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_years"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_e2dbc3e6","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"3d4bcc6a7f7a1a3cd9820126962887acb42ad717cbd9fbe7f04a2841f4cea058","frame_sha256_before":"ed34a9b99b09a06feaf55abfdf26bace5803090e0a326558d8f5e6dfe234e0d8","index":4,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5766,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":24,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.081459Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"nyears == 2"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_13a96be4","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"1189d98953e0576536b011daeaf49ccb33f3f5a458b40be28bb96167dc40e69b","frame_sha256_before":"3d4bcc6a7f7a1a3cd9820126962887acb42ad717cbd9fbe7f04a2841f4cea058","index":5,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":25,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.088494Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_pre"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_67ae0926","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"95092d1f499894936b56f6f0851c1bcb9258d3f0c0d03639c95235ffe597b10c","frame_sha256_before":"1189d98953e0576536b011daeaf49ccb33f3f5a458b40be28bb96167dc40e69b","index":6,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":26,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.092030Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"inner","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_post"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_4c075799","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"80678c6f4c17a7173b3fd9ea23198b28bddd9c685bb5d05fa280b9bc71a85184","frame_sha256_before":"95092d1f499894936b56f6f0851c1bcb9258d3f0c0d03639c95235ffe597b10c","index":7,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":27,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.094061Z","transform":{"args":{"how":"left","on":["fips"],"with":"ref_evp"},"op":"merge"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_5e8f7173","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"80678c6f4c17a7173b3fd9ea23198b28bddd9c685bb5d05fa280b9bc71a85184","frame_sha256_before":"80678c6f4c17a7173b3fd9ea23198b28bddd9c685bb5d05fa280b9bc71a85184","index":8,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":28,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.096069Z","transform":{"args":{"query":"tr_pre == 0 and (tr_post == 1 or (tr_post == 0 and evp == 0))"},"op":"filter"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1aa5801b","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"4039fa67e292896550a03654d1190c6b26dfefda4a8bef51d50e08a3d2f4e85f","frame_sha256_before":"80678c6f4c17a7173b3fd9ea23198b28bddd9c685bb5d05fa280b9bc71a85184","index":9,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":29,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.099049Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"tr_post","value":1},"name":"treated_group","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_7c3df3c7","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"9f9b1692eb9403ec85fea5ecda759a50cbdc1b364b27706ae1c6933c21fae8dc","frame_sha256_before":"4039fa67e292896550a03654d1190c6b26dfefda4a8bef51d50e08a3d2f4e85f","index":10,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":30,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.106003Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":1996},"name":"post","op":"indicator"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_7dd5e04f","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"c62ad73619b7b45cdba9f7504f5638b751a75d1cc45f8cfae3eccf46714b6e09","frame_sha256_before":"9f9b1692eb9403ec85fea5ecda759a50cbdc1b364b27706ae1c6933c21fae8dc","index":11,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":31,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.118479Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","perc_bl_pre"]},"name":"post_x_perc_bl_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_d20df8a5","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"41d49c5de852111762cde5ec23eb14e7e82470b96614d7d517871f8f70ebcb8e","frame_sha256_before":"c62ad73619b7b45cdba9f7504f5638b751a75d1cc45f8cfae3eccf46714b6e09","index":12,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":32,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.125651Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","pop_tot_pre"]},"name":"post_x_pop_tot_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_df3972b3","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"80769bb1d39364708fe922c77f7ba65cce074693db8a15aef925a1258e709229","frame_sha256_before":"41d49c5de852111762cde5ec23eb14e7e82470b96614d7d517871f8f70ebcb8e","index":13,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":33,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.143159Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["post","income_pre"]},"name":"post_x_income_pre","op":"product"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_268e31ff","dataset_id":"ref_panel","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"92dd38bde845d95aa9c611a059b0cfc780c1246546a5f5e387c04a84148123d0","frame_sha256_before":"80769bb1d39364708fe922c77f7ba65cce074693db8a15aef925a1258e709229","index":14,"rows_after":5764,"rows_before":5764,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":34,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.155436Z","transform":{"args":{"args":{"columns":["treated_group","post"]},"name":"did","op":"interaction"},"op":"derive"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_c7be8b8a","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["0fe896272b9ca332152e570d75651a16a7bba3126e5dd2ca6393ec2843fabd3a"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"28a1157a8f59e3b20561eaaec0792e135aa7af4e12a8d8686c47f8fd44b582e0","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"sm.OLS(turnout, add_constant([treated_group, post, did, post_x_*_pre]), missing='drop').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=fips) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["treated_group","post","post_x_perc_bl_pre","post_x_pop_tot_pre","post_x_income_pre"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["did"],"y":"turnout"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":35,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.202182Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["treated_group","post","post_x_perc_bl_pre","post_x_pop_tot_pre","post_x_income_pre"],"dataset":"ref_panel","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["did"],"y":"turnout"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_51f7157a","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_panel":"92dd38bde845d95aa9c611a059b0cfc780c1246546a5f5e387c04a84148123d0"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":15.741790877655149,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"eada7d9728f32fdfddf72ed8b0bbe8fa179f418b4eff46fd0bfdcee501b5a297","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"f3ced02bf1702bd687e7855d03adc2916c765bc0d0b16e4e4a2b52fdeeb0008a","rationale":"sm.OLS(turnout, add_constant([treated_group, post, did, post_x_*_pre]), missing='drop').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=fips) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across clusters of 'fips' and may be correlated within them"],"call_id":"call_51f7157a","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":5764},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":7},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.1696623041900176},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":5757},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'fips'","value":"cluster"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"2882 clusters of 'fips'","value":2882}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.07283335418841155,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.04248663493380934,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.05765999456111044,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":5764.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":7.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de did na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de turnout.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.007738399871744608,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":5.9882832575016966e-05}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.05765999456111044},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9607877440792292},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.007738399871744608}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2881 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.did","label":"Coefficient on did in the regression of turnout","se":0.007738399871744608,"unit":"","value":0.05765999456111044}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.6063211735601218,"ci_low":0.5989054359923606,"coef":0.6026133047762412,"p":0.0,"se":0.0018910097714945715,"t":318.6727609027435,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.07283335418841155,"ci_low":0.04248663493380934,"coef":0.05765999456111044,"p":1.216414531941813e-13,"se":0.007738399871744608,"t":7.451152113713543,"term":"did"},{"ci_high":-0.03388722607021363,"ci_low":-0.06555998821438755,"coef":-0.04972360714230059,"p":8.46731558566046e-10,"se":0.008076540217015486,"t":-6.156547953236701,"term":"treated_group"},{"ci_high":-0.08245918420606417,"ci_low":-0.11250607808434014,"coef":-0.09748263114520216,"p":4.05598926650631e-36,"se":0.007661944534538532,"t":-12.722962259224106,"term":"post"},{"ci_high":-0.18047064993595477,"ci_low":-0.23684241302805706,"coef":-0.2086565314820059,"p":3.948288315512396e-46,"se":0.014374774440099845,"t":-14.515464736610964,"term":"post_x_perc_bl_pre"},{"ci_high":-3.863512790398138e-08,"ci_low":-9.18500837473365e-08,"coef":-6.524260582565894e-08,"p":1.6032842997875152e-06,"se":1.3569789999973824e-08,"t":-4.807930397285793,"term":"post_x_pop_tot_pre"},{"ci_high":2.4237011021242226e-06,"ci_low":1.3600900051754614e-06,"coef":1.8918955536498419e-06,"p":3.76576106548367e-12,"se":2.7122035522723663e-07,"t":6.975492499686296,"term":"post_x_income_pre"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"8a892e26ac4c68953ac28d29bab0148239b4d861d9b5631511336d836ea29cb0","result_sha256":"b3452170060d1a6fd23ec63c75c09cc5fb65e8938a413f0f6500ea188e130b54","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":36,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.204614Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_c7be8b8a"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_8f25feaa","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["0fe896272b9ca332152e570d75651a16a7bba3126e5dd2ca6393ec2843fabd3a","a48dcf254f48ff9ca721bddf0cb7e03ab67d93574f32d5b5bb909462db79a5c3","4dd3021614d64cd36d5be4160e5fc60cf5cbef107207dd485db37b32824e5308"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"28a1157a8f59e3b20561eaaec0792e135aa7af4e12a8d8686c47f8fd44b582e0","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.did = 0,05766. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_51f7157a:coef.did"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":37,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.220574Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_66d78147","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,05766"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":38,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222320Z","turn_id":"call_8f25feaa","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.did = 0,05766. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_51f7157a","ci_high":0.07283335418841155,"ci_low":0.04248663493380934,"formatted":0.05765999456111044,"key":"coef.did","ref":"call_51f7157a:coef.did","se":0.007738399871744608,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.05765999456111044},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_51f7157a:coef.did"],"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":39,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222501Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":40,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222501Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.05765999456 in [0.04249273081, 0.07282725831]?","expected":[0.042492730810336415,0.07282725830583116],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.05765999456111044,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.042492730810336415,0.07282725830583116],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_51f7157a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":41,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222501Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"0.05765999456 vs 0.05765999455808379","expected":0.05765999455808379,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.05765999456111044,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q046.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.738399871299681e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_51f7157a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":42,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222501Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"0.007738399872 vs 0.007738399871299681","expected":0.007738399871299681,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.007738399871744608,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q046.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.738399871299681e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_51f7157a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":43,"task_id":"crb_papers.q046","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.222501Z"}