{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0033":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n|---------------|-------------|\n| year | Reference calendar year t for the country\u2013year record; the released extract has reference years 1987\u20132006. |\n| ccode | Numeric country identifier (standard country code used to identify panel units). |\n| new_empinx | Annual CIRI \"Human Empowerment\" index (composite civil and political rights indicator) for the country\u2013year. |\n| polity2 | Polity IV combined regime score for the country\u2013year (standard polity measure of regime characteristics). |\n| EV | Natural logarithm of one plus net EU/European Community official development assistance in year t\u22121, measured in millions of constant 1995 US dollars. Negative net amounts were set to zero before the logarithmic transformation. |\n| l2CPcol2 | Equals 1 when the recipient country was a former colony of the EU member holding the Council presidency during July\u2013December of year t\u22122; otherwise 0. |\n| covihme_ayem | Average years of educational attainment (lagged educational-attainment measure, source noted in paper). |\n| covihme_ayemF | Equals 1 when covihme_ayem represents a missing value coded \u221299, and 0 otherwise. |\n| covwdi_exp | Exports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed in the replication). |\n| covwdi_expF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_exp. |\n| covwdi_fdi | Foreign direct investment (WDI series, lagged; inward FDI measure). |\n| covwdi_fdiF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_fdi. |\n| covwdi_imp | Imports (World Bank WDI series, lagged; often logged/transformed). |\n| covwdi_impF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwdi_imp. |\n| covwvs_rel | Lagged religiosity measure included in the source socioeconomic compilation; measured in year t\u22122, with \u221299 for missing values. |\n| covwvs_relF | Missingness flag / indicator for covwvs_rel. |\n| coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS | Petroleum/oil rents as percent of GDP (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS), lagged. |\n| coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF | Missingness flag / indicator for coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS. |\n| covdemregion | Regional democracy context: number (or summary count) of democracies in the same region (lagged regional-democracy measure). |\n| covdemregionF | Missingness flag / indicator for covdemregion. |\n| covloggdpC | Logged GDP per capita measured in year t\u22122; missing values are represented by \u221299 and flagged by covloggdpCF. |\n| covloggdpCF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdpC. |\n| covloggdp | Logged GDP measured in year t\u22122; missing values are represented by \u221299 and flagged by covloggdpF. |\n| covloggdpF | Missingness flag / indicator for covloggdp. |\n| _Iyear_1963 \u2026 _Iyear_2011 | Binary year-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel. Each denotes the corresponding calendar year; columns for years outside this extract are zero. |\n| _Iccode_40 \u2026 _Iccode_990 | Binary country-indicator columns retained from the wider source panel; each denotes the corresponding ccode. |\n| new_empinxavg | Arithmetic average of the CIRI Human Empowerment index in years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3; the index ranges from 0 to 14. |\n| polity2avg | Arithmetic average of the Polity IV combined score over years t, t+1, t+2, and t+3. |\n\nData Description: Each observation is an aid-recipient country in reference year t. The released extract contains 1,792 observations for 115 countries, with reference years 1987\u20132006. It combines EU/European Community aid records, historical colonial links, Council-presidency calendars, the CIRI Human Empowerment index, Polity IV regime scores, and socioeconomic measures from World Development Indicators, religiosity and education-attainment series, and regional democracy counts.\n\nThe Council presidency rotates among member governments for six-month terms under a prearranged schedule. During July\u2013December, the presidency participates in setting the following year's aid budget. Historical colonial links connect recipient countries to particular European governments. The European Commission subsequently administers disbursement of the allocated aid; an aid allocation is distinct from the amount actually disbursed. l2CPcol2 refers to the second-half presidency in t\u22122, EV to aid in t\u22121, and new_empinxavg to outcomes over t through t+3.\n\nSubstantive variables prefixed cov are measured two years before the reference year. Missing values were replaced with the placeholder \u221299; associated variables ending in F equal 1 for those missing values and 0 otherwise. The \u221299 entries are not measured socioeconomic values. The file also retains binary year and country indicators and the four-year outcome averages.\n","file_sha256":"12fb375d5f7bc7882d97ba1cfcbbdb3f0d005e988762d4b8c98a6a8d00133974","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_iv":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"12fb375d5f7bc7882d97ba1cfcbbdb3f0d005e988762d4b8c98a6a8d00133974","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["new_empinxavg","EV","l2CPcol2","year","ccode","covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregionF","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["new_empinxavg","EV","l2CPcol2","year","ccode","covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregionF","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"},"op":"dummies"},{"args":{"column":"ccode","drop_first":true,"prefix":"ccode"},"op":"dummies"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the causal effect of a one log-unit increase in logged EU ODA (EV) in year t-1 on the CIRI Human Empowerment index averaged over years t through t+3 in the study population?","question_sha256":"67dd782b5e98b7898ed6afa194b6eb96e14a825f05dd0d0bb8a726b52173a06a","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q063","task_sha256":"69626777482b604972d9690f5a5fbcaaa281281efda7d795ba0c3922a2012f24","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.666233Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_75f83f21","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"7803eba1e9d9d269d3a7c6e320c629587e91340f4bde459c42fb480cab04915f","frame_sha256_before":"7803eba1e9d9d269d3a7c6e320c629587e91340f4bde459c42fb480cab04915f","index":1,"rows_after":1792,"rows_before":1792,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q063","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.672901Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["new_empinxavg","EV","l2CPcol2","year","ccode","covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregionF","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem"]},"op":"dropna"}}
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{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_6a32c981","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["66f3683f25538a1a02bc8605981827dd891bbbe7bb07de8c5186725ef46e1988"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"0404e8c4423cd579ba2a70cec575f33b61fdadefb956c3b7a8ded6c7a946a80a","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"IV2SLS(new_empinxavg, 1 + controls - covdemregionF + C(year) + C(ccode), EV, l2CPcol2); one of the two cluster dimensions","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"ccode","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["EV"],"exog":["covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem","year_1988.0","year_1989.0","year_1990.0","year_1991.0","year_1992.0","year_1993.0","year_1994.0","year_1995.0","year_1996.0","year_1997.0","year_1998.0","year_1999.0","year_2000.0","year_2001.0","year_2002.0","year_2003.0","year_2004.0","year_2005.0","year_2006.0","ccode_40.0","ccode_41.0","ccode_42.0","ccode_51.0","ccode_52.0","ccode_53.0","ccode_54.0","ccode_55.0","ccode_56.0","ccode_57.0","ccode_58.0","ccode_60.0","ccode_70.0","ccode_80.0","ccode_90.0","ccode_91.0","ccode_92.0","ccode_93.0","ccode_94.0","ccode_95.0","ccode_100.0","ccode_101.0","ccode_110.0","ccode_115.0","ccode_130.0","ccode_135.0","ccode_140.0","ccode_145.0","ccode_150.0","ccode_155.0","ccode_160.0","ccode_165.0","ccode_352.0","ccode_402.0","ccode_403.0","ccode_404.0","ccode_411.0","ccode_420.0","ccode_432.0","ccode_433.0","ccode_434.0","ccode_435.0","ccode_436.0","ccode_437.0","ccode_438.0","ccode_439.0","ccode_451.0","ccode_452.0","ccode_461.0","ccode_471.0","ccode_475.0","ccode_481.0","ccode_482.0","ccode_483.0","ccode_484.0","ccode_490.0","ccode_500.0","ccode_501.0","ccode_510.0","ccode_516.0","ccode_517.0","ccode_520.0","ccode_522.0","ccode_531.0","ccode_540.0","ccode_541.0","ccode_551.0","ccode_552.0","ccode_553.0","ccode_560.0","ccode_565.0","ccode_570.0","ccode_571.0","ccode_572.0","ccode_580.0","ccode_581.0","ccode_590.0","ccode_591.0","ccode_600.0","ccode_615.0","ccode_616.0","ccode_620.0","ccode_625.0","ccode_645.0","ccode_651.0","ccode_652.0","ccode_660.0","ccode_663.0","ccode_678.0","ccode_692.0","ccode_694.0","ccode_696.0","ccode_698.0","ccode_750.0","ccode_760.0","ccode_770.0","ccode_771.0","ccode_775.0","ccode_780.0","ccode_781.0","ccode_811.0","ccode_812.0","ccode_816.0","ccode_820.0","ccode_830.0","ccode_835.0","ccode_850.0","ccode_935.0","ccode_940.0","ccode_946.0","ccode_947.0","ccode_950.0","ccode_955.0","ccode_990.0"],"instruments":["l2CPcol2"],"y":"new_empinxavg"},"llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":5,"task_id":"crb_papers.q063","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:29.732480Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":"ccode","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["EV"],"exog":["covloggdp","covloggdpCF","covloggdpC","covdemregion","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZSF","coviNY_GDP_PETR_RT_ZS","covwvs_relF","covwvs_rel","covwdi_imp","covwdi_fdiF","covwdi_fdi","covwdi_expF","covwdi_exp","covihme_ayemF","covihme_ayem","year_1988.0","year_1989.0","year_1990.0","year_1991.0","year_1992.0","year_1993.0","year_1994.0","year_1995.0","year_1996.0","year_1997.0","year_1998.0","year_1999.0","year_2000.0","year_2001.0","year_2002.0","year_2003.0","year_2004.0","year_2005.0","year_2006.0","ccode_40.0","ccode_41.0","ccode_42.0","ccode_51.0","ccode_52.0","ccode_53.0","ccode_54.0","ccode_55.0","ccode_56.0","ccode_57.0","ccode_58.0","ccode_60.0","ccode_70.0","ccode_80.0","ccode_90.0","ccode_91.0","ccode_92.0","ccode_93.0","ccode_94.0","ccode_95.0","ccode_100.0","ccode_101.0","ccode_110.0","ccode_115.0","ccode_130.0","ccode_135.0","ccode_140.0","ccode_145.0","ccode_150.0","ccode_155.0","ccode_160.0","ccode_165.0","ccode_352.0","ccode_402.0","ccode_403.0","ccode_404.0","ccode_411.0","ccode_420.0","ccode_432.0","ccode_433.0","ccode_434.0","ccode_435.0","ccode_436.0","ccode_437.0","ccode_438.0","ccode_439.0","ccode_451.0","ccode_452.0","ccode_461.0","ccode_471.0","ccode_475.0","ccode_481.0","ccode_482.0","ccode_483.0","ccode_484.0","ccode_490.0","ccode_500.0","ccode_501.0","ccode_510.0","ccode_516.0","ccode_517.0","ccode_520.0","ccode_522.0","ccode_531.0","ccode_540.0","ccode_541.0","ccode_551.0","ccode_552.0","ccode_553.0","ccode_560.0","ccode_565.0","ccode_570.0","ccode_571.0","ccode_572.0","ccode_580.0","ccode_581.0","ccode_590.0","ccode_591.0","ccode_600.0","ccode_615.0","ccode_616.0","ccode_620.0","ccode_625.0","ccode_645.0","ccode_651.0","ccode_652.0","ccode_660.0","ccode_663.0","ccode_678.0","ccode_692.0","ccode_694.0","ccode_696.0","ccode_698.0","ccode_750.0","ccode_760.0","ccode_770.0","ccode_771.0","ccode_775.0","ccode_780.0","ccode_781.0","ccode_811.0","ccode_812.0","ccode_816.0","ccode_820.0","ccode_830.0","ccode_835.0","ccode_850.0","ccode_935.0","ccode_940.0","ccode_946.0","ccode_947.0","ccode_950.0","ccode_955.0","ccode_990.0"],"instruments":["l2CPcol2"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"new_empinxavg"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_dfd673df","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_iv":"b68d973c40321e6339055454fbd14970ab035474b27737334be32ca22faa6507"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":77.32429215684533,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"b190b48d1cda1684c7d58f4b306573550095f33e8e89503c418a9fd99bf01e97","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","output_digest":"dad08d0c53b43f3ef5ae5d7032b944c09dfcd85e2b6c9990047be21bc89aed15","rationale":"IV2SLS(new_empinxavg, 1 + controls - covdemregionF + C(year) + C(ccode), EV, l2CPcol2); one of the two cluster dimensions","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across clusters of 'ccode' and may be correlated within them"],"call_id":"call_dfd673df","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":true,"name":"first_stage_F.EV","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for EV (cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'ccode'); below 10: weak instrument, the estimate and its interval are unreliable","value":5.3878660954157676},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.EV","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.002739183987464755},{"flag":true,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"at least one first-stage F is below 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