{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0043":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| (Unnamed) | Unlabeled column from the original data export (often an empty field or row index placeholder). |\n| direct | Municipality institutional type indicator for the given observation year: 1 = direct-democracy town meeting as the highest local decision-making body; 0 = representative municipal council. |\n| area1918 | Municipality land area circa 1918 (units as recorded in historical registers). |\n| nr_poor_relief1917 | Number of individuals receiving poor relief in 1917 in the municipality (count). |\n| shareagri1917 | Share of local workforce/economic activity in agriculture in 1917 (proportion). |\n| taxbase1918 | Municipal tax base in 1918 (monetary taxable-capacity measure as recorded in historical accounts; units as in source). |\n| year | Observation year (parliamentary election year) for turnout and vote-based variables (e.g., 1921, 1924, 1928, \u2026, 1944). |\n| wm_voters | Number of eligible female voters in the municipality for the election year `year` (count). |\n| m_turnout | Men\u2019s turnout in parliamentary elections in `year` (percent, 0\u2013100): (number of male votes cast \u00f7 number of eligible male voters) \u00d7 100. |\n| wm_turnout | Women\u2019s turnout in parliamentary elections in `year` (percent, 0\u2013100): (number of female votes cast \u00f7 number of eligible female voters) \u00d7 100. |\n| wv_share | Share of total votes cast that were cast by women in `year` (percent, 0\u2013100): (female votes cast \u00f7 total votes cast) \u00d7 100. |\n| left | Support for leftist parties in the municipality in `year` (vote share; coding as in source, typically a proportion). |\n| enep | Effective number of electoral parties in the municipality in `year` (Laakso\u2013Taagepera index computed from party vote shares). |\n| municipality | Municipality identifier (name or code as provided in the source data). |\n| county | County identifier (name or code as provided in the source data). |\n| population | Municipality population size (number of inhabitants) measured in the year *prior* to the election/observation year: Population\\_{t\u22121} for election year t = `year`. This is the population figure used in the statutory 1,500-person benchmark in contemporaneous municipal governance rules. |\n| over1500 | Indicator based on `population` (i.e., Population\\_{t\u22121} relative to 1,500): 1 if `population` > 1,500; 0 otherwise. |\n| nr_organized | Number of organized local associations/organizations in the municipality (count from historical records; year as recorded in source). |\n| zeropop | Distance of lagged population from the 1,500-person benchmark: `population` \u2212 1500, where `population` is Population\\_{t\u22121} for election year t = `year`. |\n| c_m | Unclear/undocumented field carried over from the source file (may be empty or auxiliary). |\n| new | Indicator for being below the 1,500-person benchmark based on `population` (i.e., Population\\_{t\u22121}): 1 if `zeropop` < 0 (equivalently, `population` < 1,500); 0 otherwise. |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis dataset is a municipality \u00d7 election-year panel covering Swedish municipalities in the early decades after the introduction of universal suffrage, with election-year observations spanning 1921\u20131944. It combines historical municipal administrative and demographic measures (e.g., population, land area, tax base, poor relief counts, agriculture share, number of local organizations) with parliamentary electoral statistics disaggregated by gender (numbers of eligible voters and turnout measures for men and women, and women\u2019s share of total votes), as well as local political context indicators (e.g., left-party support and party-system fragmentation).\n\nSeveral variables encode municipality population relative to a 1,500-person benchmark used in contemporaneous municipal governance statutes. In this panel setting, the population measure used for the benchmark is recorded as the population in the year preceding the election/observation year (Population\\_{t\u22121} relative to election year t), and the derived threshold/distance indicators are computed from that same lagged population. The data were assembled from Swedish national electoral statistics and historical municipal registers/census and fiscal records; year-suffixed variables denote the historical measurement year (e.g., area1918, taxbase1918).\n","file_sha256":"df43b8c482e8aabc4ea5bbac74e9748f76d0487bdf0307c9106b7c1ebe91fee1","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_iv":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"df43b8c482e8aabc4ea5bbac74e9748f76d0487bdf0307c9106b7c1ebe91fee1","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"},"op":"dummies"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the causal effect of having municipal direct-democracy institutions (versus representative councils) on women's parliamentary turnout, estimated for municipalities whose institutional status was marginally determined by the 1918 municipal reform?","question_sha256":"beed50d5fa4461ce097d1353858ca8a2a6dccd8cfd0098f0b7b360a27779bfd1","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","task_sha256":"2b61c4eaf60db56fcdd9c4a81d7d2cba9db977cc9cdad689819c33d7ece2a922","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.197540Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_8a72c766","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"e1346743ef28e35e122eedea0aadd9e6f931bb4ee0800251781bcb560a5f5a48","frame_sha256_before":"60daee4b992c2a8c0fc1040bc2e87793b668776b0f837d37ea027f6525e3bf51","index":0,"rows_after":2750,"rows_before":2750,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.197540Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_5c8d5374","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"cbf3885c5f36e4556f432b25d1b7fed6baddab5bc88f620b2a0d9cb0705aff61","frame_sha256_before":"e1346743ef28e35e122eedea0aadd9e6f931bb4ee0800251781bcb560a5f5a48","index":1,"rows_after":2749,"rows_before":2750,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.201136Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_9f71b20e","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"66f954b4feb6f56a868d2459329d40535d7c670409cf3314492f0cc3cba4e08f","frame_sha256_before":"cbf3885c5f36e4556f432b25d1b7fed6baddab5bc88f620b2a0d9cb0705aff61","index":2,"rows_after":2749,"rows_before":2749,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.202449Z","transform":{"args":{"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"},"op":"dummies"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_7eca32ed","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["e4e1652480bab1025657ac8481204a516ce851b296553d6077fae79c07d69ab7"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"b3aaf3c2cc39d53c95d841df4e34a978c065d4c123bc0e505d16a3b3f8a23363","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"IV2SLS.from_formula('wm_turnout ~ 1 + left + wm_voters + enep + C(year) + [direct ~ new]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["direct"],"exog":["left","wm_voters","enep","year_1924","year_1928","year_1932","year_1936","year_1940","year_1944"],"instruments":["new"],"se":"HC1","y":"wm_turnout"},"llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.214003Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["direct"],"exog":["left","wm_voters","enep","year_1924","year_1928","year_1932","year_1936","year_1940","year_1944"],"instruments":["new"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"wm_turnout"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_5d9cd869","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_iv":"66f954b4feb6f56a868d2459329d40535d7c670409cf3314492f0cc3cba4e08f"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":10.919749969616532,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"f291956bab5ece665e8f6c56a93d2df287d830de888c496dc8406cdff4c702d3","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","output_digest":"554dcec9efb9059bd7071fbdb521939d3e203fc478988d4b91b721bae0b24ac0","rationale":"IV2SLS.from_formula('wm_turnout ~ 1 + left + wm_voters + enep + C(year) + [direct ~ new]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_5d9cd869","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.direct","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for direct (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))","value":914.6461459884626},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.direct","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.26895787769146506},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":2749},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":6.057172272330231,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.80015316257064,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":3.928662717450435,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":1.9490019637531393},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":0.49609806285889896}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de new na forma reduzida (wm_turnout sobre new e os controles) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (direct sobre new e os controles).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":1.0855141453627477,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.1783409597826167}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":3.928662717450435},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9608307860129344},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":1.0855141453627477}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2738 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.direct","label":"2SLS effect of direct on wm_turnout","se":1.0855141453627477,"unit":"","value":3.928662717450435}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":46.54703449035294,"ci_low":36.5469279597355,"coef":41.54698122504422,"p":4.88797192616156e-57,"se":2.549966728886183,"t":16.29314639849901,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":18.312132674288733,"ci_low":13.26473188383231,"coef":15.788432279060522,"p":1.027276058000391e-33,"se":1.2870566972073059,"t":12.26708373711798,"term":"left"},{"ci_high":0.020274695279438967,"ci_low":0.004352619518639465,"coef":0.012313657399039217,"p":0.00244491763825996,"se":0.0040600330927011655,"t":3.0328958207694963,"term":"wm_voters"},{"ci_high":-2.4324308841043187,"ci_low":-3.813207118123529,"coef":-3.122819001113924,"p":1.2986367198713285e-18,"se":0.35208959484638114,"t":-8.869387357148197,"term":"enep"},{"ci_high":-0.04425236355233175,"ci_low":-3.2112025486135876,"coef":-1.6277274560829595,"p":0.04393632222186286,"se":0.8075531574809651,"t":-2.015628867281504,"term":"year_1924"},{"ci_high":16.669324592624296,"ci_low":13.543532919918356,"coef":15.106428756271326,"p":2.2808379948900315e-75,"se":0.7970579855750294,"t":18.95273496993189,"term":"year_1928"},{"ci_high":16.478637755876797,"ci_low":13.239001695349456,"coef":14.858819725613127,"p":1.845644472754995e-68,"se":0.8260876164420777,"t":17.986977930512257,"term":"year_1932"},{"ci_high":24.436618651559264,"ci_low":21.477717071357183,"coef":22.957167861458224,"p":2.0216490573896478e-175,"se":0.7545020205997941,"t":30.426913692303092,"term":"year_1936"},{"ci_high":19.07101216624259,"ci_low":15.978721488144764,"coef":17.524866827193676,"p":9.511085110480157e-101,"se":0.788515434415825,"t":22.22514114790543,"term":"year_1940"},{"ci_high":21.20519087687945,"ci_low":18.13594643676747,"coef":19.67056865682346,"p":1.3181416849010784e-125,"se":0.7826387830111657,"t":25.13364924383363,"term":"year_1944"},{"ci_high":6.057172272330231,"ci_low":1.80015316257064,"coef":3.928662717450435,"p":0.0003008986817029755,"se":1.0855141453627477,"t":3.619172291981132,"term":"direct"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":0.5282628805210374,"ci_low":0.46393324519676044,"coef":0.49609806285889896,"endog":"direct","instrument":"new","p":1.3181530570393921e-173,"se":0.016403668226538316,"t":30.243117332518196}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":2.960736992176207,"ci_low":0.937266935330072,"coef":1.9490019637531393,"instrument":"new","p":0.0001618895049192856,"se":0.515972635497163,"t":3.7773359082796856}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"b1d8a3f4aab995bc0ed5ee488c6375bdf423058315dcb23543b6fe89027be742","result_sha256":"ee8c98207a2f22a07a84806cc7b77ea34dee47f75ac91024270ca0e0dedb8dee","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":5,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.217422Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":"call_7eca32ed"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_5d46596f","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["e4e1652480bab1025657ac8481204a516ce851b296553d6077fae79c07d69ab7","08580188080f32299c0db07e51d3985f396d428b5a49323d3535235cb3e1f4fa","ac7c85d0297cbb292c43a2306a7ad6e8cdf2836c1f157422227cd1215db95c6e"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"b3aaf3c2cc39d53c95d841df4e34a978c065d4c123bc0e505d16a3b3f8a23363","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.direct = 3,929. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_5d9cd869:coef.direct"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.228655Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_7323e2b3","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["3,929"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273537Z","turn_id":"call_5d46596f","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.direct = 3,929. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_5d9cd869","ci_high":6.057172272330231,"ci_low":1.80015316257064,"formatted":3.928662717450435,"key":"coef.direct","ref":"call_5d9cd869:coef.direct","se":1.0855141453627477,"tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","unit":"","value":3.928662717450435},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_5d9cd869:coef.direct"],"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":8,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273759Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273759Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"3.928662717 in [1.801054993, 6.056270442]?","expected":[1.801054992539965,6.05627044236193],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":3.928662717450435,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[1.801054992539965,6.05627044236193],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_5d9cd869","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":10,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273759Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"3.928662717 vs 3.9286627174509476","expected":3.9286627174509476,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":3.928662717450435,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q073.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.085514145362746e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_5d9cd869","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":11,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273759Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"1.085514145 vs 1.0855141453627462","expected":1.0855141453627462,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":1.0855141453627477,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q073.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.085514145362746e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_5d9cd869","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":12,"task_id":"crb_papers.q073","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.273759Z"}
