{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0048":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name      | Description                                                                                                  |\n|--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| row_index          | Row identifier from the CSV (simple integer index for each observation).                                     |\n| fips               | Numeric FIPS code for the U.S. county (standard county-level geographic identifier).                         |\n| DemShareDB_res     | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the selected down-ballot statewide race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). |\n| DemShareGOV_res    | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the gubernatorial race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis).             |\n| HomeGOV_res        | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the gubernatorial candidate\u2019s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). |\n| HomeDB_res         | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the selected down-ballot candidate\u2019s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). |\n\nData Description: This dataset contains county-level observations constructed for analyses of statewide executive elections in the United States (county \u00d7 election instances). County identifiers (fips) link each row to a specific U.S. county; the dataset includes processed vote-share measures for a selected down-ballot statewide race and the concurrent gubernatorial race, and analytic indicators (expressed here in residualized form) that summarize whether a candidate was born in or resides near the county. The original returns and candidate biographical information were drawn from official election offices, archival sources, and biographical repositories; the provided variables have been transformed (e.g., demeaning/residualization) to match the preprocessing used in the replication code.","file_sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_iv":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"dropna"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?","question_sha256":"2c4bc15e61221c4cb6a143f24d619d4a164ae82f36b2ee2def16fc8f2f5ae6f8","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q078","task_sha256":"9e7dbd4c68095ec0ac087f48ffb4d66a96e51298c517d54a183e8982eb2047ce","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.621783Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_d60a32f2","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"4516132fef0a8714c609946b191e8b13410dc30e4e058f3b745b67439a97c2af","frame_sha256_before":"d907be837237642560ae6f60917ff967537f9c86860e7c31d5480f1a57c70e94","index":0,"rows_after":14656,"rows_before":14656,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q078","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.621783Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_b0516563","dataset_id":"ref_iv","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"b530b4225ca461b37bf690882169fb1c53945e733baeee40a87f77954572322b","frame_sha256_before":"4516132fef0a8714c609946b191e8b13410dc30e4e058f3b745b67439a97c2af","index":1,"rows_after":14550,"rows_before":14656,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q078","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.625707Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_9031d2d6","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["cb48b909b6388c899f0557c174c4adc43ed002f09fcb140e752e51a23465ef58"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"f74a97c2fe957e8b87a04e1bb90be8ca158b2913895ea1e4fa4e660821fba979","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["DemShareGOV_res"],"exog":["HomeDB_res"],"instruments":["HomeGOV_res"],"y":"DemShareDB_res"},"llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q078","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.686077Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":"fips","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["DemShareGOV_res"],"exog":["HomeDB_res"],"instruments":["HomeGOV_res"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"DemShareDB_res"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_04ba9234","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_iv":"b530b4225ca461b37bf690882169fb1c53945e733baeee40a87f77954572322b"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":21.18758298456669,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"6580c0fc51f563d832a6f99bc0ecb17b33d2d89c982a214b200d57fa1655f161","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","output_digest":"63a72437672d7acdf483d347024b6fd3220f94bc1f21394321df37e497023746","rationale":"IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect 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'fips'","value":2750}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.30301492990433954,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.023852839917515495,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":0.1634338849109275,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":0.006194266264817797},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":0.037900746642556445}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de HomeGOV_res na forma reduzida (DemShareDB_res sobre HomeGOV_res e os controles) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (DemShareGOV_res sobre HomeGOV_res e os controles).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.07118477178041364,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.005067271733429575}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 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