{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0054":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name                 | Description                                                                                                   |\n|------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| Unnamed: 0                   | Row index from the source file                                                                                |\n| depfed.id                    | Candidate identifier (year\u2013state\u2013code) for the 2006 federal deputy election                                   |\n| uf                           | State (UF) abbreviation                                                                                        |\n| party                        | Candidate\u2019s party abbreviation                                                                                 |\n| rank                         | Candidate\u2019s intra-coalition rank by personal votes                                                             |\n| coal                         | Party/coalition label on the ballot in the state                                                               |\n| coalseats                    | Number of seats won by the coalition in the state                                                              |\n| name                         | Candidate\u2019s full name                                                                                          |\n| elected                      | Indicator for whether the candidate took office at the start of the term (1=yes, 0=no)                        |\n| votes                        | Candidate\u2019s total personal (nominal) votes                                                                     |\n| votemargin                   | Raw vote difference to the relevant intra-coalition cutoff (votes vs last winner/first loser)                  |\n| margin.coalvote              | Vote margin expressed as a share of coalition votes                                                            |\n| margin.nomvote               | Vote margin expressed as a share of nominal votes in the state                                                 |\n| infl.vote.margin             | \u201cInflated\u201d vote margin measure adjusting for district magnitude differences                                    |\n| suplencia.days               | Days served as a substitute (suplente) during the term                                                         |\n| licenca.days                 | Days on leave (licen\u00e7a) for a seated deputy during the term                                                    |\n| donations                    | Total registered corporate donations received in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices)                                     |\n| contracts.2004               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2004 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2005               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2005 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2006               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2007               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2007 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2008               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2008 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2009               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2009 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| contracts.2010               | Direct federal payments to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2010 (reais, 2006 prices)                            |\n| agriculture                  | -                                                                                                              |\n| num.contracts08              | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2008                                      |\n| num.contracts09              | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2009                                      |\n| num.contracts10              | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate\u2019s donor firms in 2010                                      |\n| pw.donations                 | Total donations from public-works sector firms (construction, water/sewage, energy) in 2006 (reais)            |\n| pw.contracts.2004            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2004 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2005            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2005 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2006            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2007            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2007 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2008            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2008 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2009            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2009 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.contracts.2010            | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2010 (reais, 2006 prices)                               |\n| pw.agriculture               | -                                                                                                              |\n| pw.num.contracts08           | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2008                                         |\n| pw.num.contracts09           | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2009                                         |\n| pw.num.contracts10           | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2010                                         |\n| contracts.0406               | Sum of direct federal payments to donor firms, 2004\u20132006 (reais, 2006 prices)                                   |\n| contracts.0810               | Sum of direct federal payments to donor firms, 2008\u20132010 (reais, 2006 prices)                                   |\n| pw.con.0810                  | Sum of direct federal payments to public-works donor firms, 2008\u20132010 (reais, 2006 prices)                      |\n| pw.con.0406                  | Sum of direct federal payments to public-works donor firms, 2004\u20132006 (reais, 2006 prices)                      |\n| donor.firms                  | Number of corporate donor firms contributing to the candidate in 2006                                           |\n| pw.donor.firms               | Number of donor firms in public-works industries contributing to the candidate in 2006                         |\n| nondonors.contracts          | -                                                                                                              |\n| nondonors.pwcontracts        | -                                                                                                              |\n| donoronly02.contracts0810    | -                                                                                                              |\n| donoronly02.pw.con.0810      | -                                                                                                              |\n| voters                       | Number of registered voters in the candidate\u2019s state (2006)                                                     |\n| contracts.PTmin.0810         | Payments to donor firms, 2008\u20132010, from ministries headed by PT (reais, 2006 prices)                          |\n| pwcontracts.PTmin.0810       | Payments to public-works donor firms, 2008\u20132010, from ministries headed by PT (reais, 2006 prices)             |\n| contracts.coalmin.0810       | Payments to donor firms, 2008\u20132010, from ministries headed by coalition partners (reais, 2006 prices)          |\n| pwcontracts.coalmin.0810     | Payments to public-works donor firms, 2008\u20132010, from ministries headed by coalition partners (reais, 2006 prices) |\n| contracts.dnit.0810          | Payments to donor firms from DNIT (National Department of Transportation Infrastructure), 2008\u20132010 (reais)     |\n| donations.dnit               | Total registered donations from firms that received DNIT payments (reais, 2006 prices)                          |\n| pwcontracts.dnit.0810        | Payments to public-works donor firms from DNIT, 2008\u20132010 (reais, 2006 prices)                                  |\n| pw.donations.dnit            | Total registered donations from public-works firms that received DNIT payments (reais, 2006 prices)             |\n| donorfirms.dnit              | Number of donor firms that received DNIT payments, 2008\u20132010                                                   |\n| pw.donorfirms.dnit           | Number of public-works donor firms that received DNIT payments, 2008\u20132010                                      |\n| uf_coal                      | Combined state\u2013coalition identifier                                                                             |\n| rank_discont                 | Distance between candidate\u2019s rank and the coalition\u2019s seat cutoff (negative=below cutoff)                       |\n| outcome_var                  | Log of the average 2008\u20132010 direct federal payments per donor firm (reais, +1)                                 |\n\nData Description: \nThis file contains candidate-level data for Brazil\u2019s 2006 Chamber of Deputies election linked to firm-level government payment records. Candidate and donation information were taken from the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), including party/coalition labels, personal votes, intra-coalition rank, and officially registered corporate donations. Donor firms were matched to the Ministry of Finance registry (CNPJ and CNAE) to classify industries, with a focus on public-works activities (construction, water/sewage, and energy).\n\nDirect federal payments to firms were extracted from the Office of the Comptroller General\u2019s Transpar\u00eancia portal and aggregated to the candidate level by donor list for 2004\u20132010 (values converted to 2006 reais). The dataset summarizes totals and counts for all donor firms and for the public-works subset, provides windows for 2004\u20132006 and 2008\u20132010, and includes tags for payments executed by DNIT and by ministries led by PT or coalition partners. Additional fields capture electorate size by state and service days as substitute or on leave for seated deputies. This structure allows analysts to study patterns of campaign financing and federal contracting around the 2006 election.","file_sha256":"450c6ff9e09834c7d350151eb396b90989d7d986192e55378095f0bfeb37a5a8","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_rd":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"450c6ff9e09834c7d350151eb396b90989d7d986192e55378095f0bfeb37a5a8","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]},"op":"dropna"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among federal deputy candidates in very close races, what is the effect of being elected versus not elected on the subsequent log average value of direct federal government contracts received by their corporate donor firms during 2008-2010?","question_sha256":"997d5e51143d00fde2b203bffabb35881554505d99997e4dbe826d365710bc0b","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","task_sha256":"1b7611c84da1ae690561f5b32fcf82fe523ab138ba77a6c75c5a097cda6f63af","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.845528Z"}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_5a61016a","dataset_id":"ref_rd","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"9db19a4680161ee84d0fef905ffac6e04d5f6c4708171e9e636cd93fddb47da6","frame_sha256_before":"576276515be0a21f031e0dfac5aca20e6617545eb6e8dd56d2d7de10d144f309","index":0,"rows_after":1504,"rows_before":1504,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.845528Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]},"op":"select"}}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_95b380a2","dataset_id":"ref_rd","epoch":1,"event":"transform","frame_sha256_after":"9db19a4680161ee84d0fef905ffac6e04d5f6c4708171e9e636cd93fddb47da6","frame_sha256_before":"9db19a4680161ee84d0fef905ffac6e04d5f6c4708171e9e636cd93fddb47da6","index":1,"rows_after":1504,"rows_before":1504,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.861833Z","transform":{"args":{"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]},"op":"dropna"}}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_c081bda4","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["14882f4f0c8000c1a5d4b6e7907e148013248e18ad9c85910ec3a6a79ad21a55"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"6efbd863832037bbc09f4baa2d76494471b83c3a0e7db07845c33ace4a44bdd9","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"rdrobust(y, x, c=0.0, h=25000, p=1): the conventional local-linear estimate (coef row 1)","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"bandwidth":25000.0,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"ref_rd","kernel":"triangular","polynomial":1,"running":"votemargin","y":"outcome_var"},"llm_name":"infer__rdd","tool_id":"infer.rdd","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.913579Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":25000.0,"cluster":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"ref_rd","kernel":"triangular","level":0.95,"polynomial":1,"running":"votemargin","subset":null,"y":"outcome_var"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ref_rd":"9db19a4680161ee84d0fef905ffac6e04d5f6c4708171e9e636cd93fddb47da6"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":14.306833036243916,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"20d8e87f8991ecc1e30828a2494be78bfcea75fdefaa8d7a39a0e2be7ad36881","llm_name":"infer__rdd","output_digest":"15852ee6b13f60adca7efba0c8de9cc1982a2bf096b48c57e9ac4c014c407913","rationale":"rdrobust(y, x, c=0.0, h=25000, p=1): the conventional local-linear estimate (coef row 1)","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff","every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff"],"call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"half-width of the window around the cutoff (informada)","value":25000.0},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_method","note":"","value":"user"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_left","note":"observations with positive weight below the cutoff","value":276},{"flag":false,"name":"n_right","note":"observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff","value":187},{"flag":false,"name":"kernel","note":"","value":"triangular"},{"flag":false,"name":"polynomial","note":"","value":1},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_sensitive","note":"the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"rows used to choose the bandwidth","value":1504},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"}],"figures":[{"ci_high":4.588430789240084,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.20141545316795506,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":2.193507668036064,"terms":[{"note":"janela (informada)","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":25000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n_esq","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es abaixo do limiar","value":276.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n_dir","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es acima do limiar","value":187.0}],"text_pt":"Ajuste linear ponderado (kernel triangular) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (informada); o efeito \u00e9 a diferen\u00e7a entre os dois ajustes no limiar.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":1.2219220047382846,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.4930933856636284}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03c4 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03c4","unit":"","value":2.193507668036064},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":1.2219220047382846}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o normal vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"effect","label":"Jump in outcome_var at the cutoff of votemargin","se":1.2219220047382846,"unit":"","value":2.193507668036064}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"sensitivity":[{"bandwidth":12500.0,"ci_high":4.680619170624598,"ci_low":-1.8676847398363794,"estimate":1.4064672153941093,"multiplier":0.5,"n_left":158,"n_right":110,"se":1.6705163875747624},{"bandwidth":25000.0,"ci_high":4.588430789240084,"ci_low":-0.20141545316795506,"estimate":2.193507668036064,"multiplier":1.0,"n_left":276,"n_right":187,"se":1.2219220047382846},{"bandwidth":50000.0,"ci_high":3.4252360076382895,"ci_low":-0.0868493290860779,"estimate":1.6691933392761058,"multiplier":2.0,"n_left":574,"n_right":282,"se":0.8959566003322634}]},"tool":"infer.rdd","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"7aa19518c226a0a71316caef408a8f3aca90a89aa18c23b56862599da1724ac1","result_sha256":"80945100eaafa7442eee8deb711d5ab765bc84f2a51fa3fc520c860073909b7f","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":4,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.916778Z","tool_id":"infer.rdd","turn_id":"call_c081bda4"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_01935c43","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["14882f4f0c8000c1a5d4b6e7907e148013248e18ad9c85910ec3a6a79ad21a55","dd19c8a79cb0b02ebae09a44483f9f058f4f0183c1972c751373513dc85bcb5c","c3c49913e4f63908364ee42e9144ad8bc5f5ebb106027fbf0577f357cd6f5350"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"6efbd863832037bbc09f4baa2d76494471b83c3a0e7db07845c33ace4a44bdd9","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 2,194. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_1d0c4a87:effect"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":5,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.931261Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_2368ad4b","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["2,194"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933035Z","turn_id":"call_01935c43","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 2,194. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","ci_high":4.588430789240084,"ci_low":-0.20141545316795506,"formatted":2.193507668036064,"key":"effect","ref":"call_1d0c4a87:effect","se":1.2219220047382846,"tool_id":"infer.rdd","unit":"","value":2.193507668036064},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_1d0c4a87:effect"],"run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":7,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933234Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":8,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933234Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"2.193507668 in [-0.03811072481, 4.425126061]?","expected":[-0.038110724807695284,4.425126060879841],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":2.193507668036064,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.038110724807695284,4.425126060879841],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933234Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"2.193507668 vs 2.193507668036073","expected":2.193507668036073,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":2.193507668036064,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q085.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.138580812675392e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":10,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933234Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"1.221922005 vs 1.138580812675392","expected":1.138580812675392,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":1.2219220047382846,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q085.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.138580812675392e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_1d0c4a87","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170925Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-2dbcf5","seq":11,"task_id":"crb_papers.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:30.933234Z"}