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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q005.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.00830882328733748,0.34611111932754757],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.00830882328733748,0.34611111932754757],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.17720997130744254,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q005.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":8.61740551122985e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.0861740551122985,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q005.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":8.61740551122985e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":301.03283398784697,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.525604Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_f0","reference_frame:ref_f1","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_wpost","reference_frame:ref_wpre"],"dtypes":{"ds_0003":{"cad_update":"float64","logiptu":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["logiptu"],"treatment":["cad_update"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0003","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0003/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0003","gold":{"ci95":[0.00830882328733748,0.34611111932754757],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.17720997130744254,"standard_error":0.0861740551122985},"identification":{"bad_controls":["logdespobras","anyswitch_period","switchcadaster","F3switchcadaster","F2switchcadaster","Lswitchcadaster","L2switchcadaster","L3cad_update","F4cad_update"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"c6_ibge","outcomes":["logiptu"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Post-treatment or mechanically treatment-defined variables are bad controls because adjusting for descendants of D blocks part of the causal effect and can introduce collider bias. 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q007.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.018835339085926786,0.18233825749770866],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.018835339085926786,0.18233825749770866],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.10058679829181771,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q007.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.170992816627088e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.04170992816627088,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q007.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.170992816627088e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":29.049291973933578,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.253838Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:doubly_robust_did"],"dtypes":{"ds_0004":{"bdc":"int64","mean_donor_current":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["mean_donor_current"],"treatment":["bdc"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0004","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0004/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0004","gold":{"ci95":[0.018835339085926786,0.18233825749770866],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.10058679829181771,"standard_error":0.04170992816627088},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["general_percent","primary_percent","districtpres","nokken_poole_dim1"],"group_variable":"icpsr","minimal_controlling_set":["general_percent","primary_percent","districtpres"],"outcomes":["mean_donor_current"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"Clarke includes covariates \u201cto account for time- and unit-varying variables that may influence both faction membership patterns and the ideological composition of congressional donors\u201d and notes election-vote covariates are \u201clagged to avoid posttreatment bias\u201d (Clarke 2020, AJPS, pp. 462\u2013463). From a DAG perspective, \u201cConditioning on all common causes of D and Y is also sufficient\u201d (\u00a711.2, pp. 301\u2013303). The chosen pre-treatment variables proxy electoral strength and district ideology that plausibly affect both joining a faction and donor composition.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"congress","treatments":["bdc"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0004","treatment":"bdc","y":"mean_donor_current"},"native_id":"7","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:doubly_robust_did"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q007.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_none"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q007","task_sha256":"e3d73467e53257930db888d4c275e27bace6a12547b22e35a60310b48b98ed8a","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q007.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q007.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q007.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q008.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.9180917125688675,1.4646413269321341],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.9180917125688675,1.4646413269321341],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.27327480718163333,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q008.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.078400610971943e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.6078400610971942,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q008.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.078400610971943e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":14.576917048543692,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.239526Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_a_pre","reference_frame:ref_c_post","reference_frame:ref_never","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_t_post"],"dtypes":{"ds_0005":{"adopt_quotalag":"float64","percenthealth":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["percenthealth"],"treatment":["adopt_quotalag"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0005","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0005/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0005","gold":{"ci95":[-0.9180917125688675,1.4646413269321341],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.27327480718163333,"standard_error":0.6078400610971942},"identification":{"bad_controls":["increaselag","ever_high_adopt_treat"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"group_variable":"country","minimal_controlling_set":["leftlag","demlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"outcomes":["percenthealth"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Both variables are post-treatment/mechanically treatment-determined. increaselag is the size of the initial quota-induced jump in women\u2019s representation (a mediator on the pathway from quota adoption to spending). ever_high_adopt_treat classifies countries based on whether they ever experience a high quota shock, which is defined using post-adoption outcomes. Adjusting for either would induce over-control or collider bias. Guidance: \u201cThe general message\u2026 is that explicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea.\u201d and \u201cover-control bias, by controlling for a mediator.\u201d (Applied Causal Inference Powered by ML and AI, Sec. 11.3, \u2018Post-Treatment Variables\u2019, and Fig. 11.9a).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The paper motivates these as time-varying confounders affecting both quota adoption and spending. On political ideology: \u201cThis is a particularly relevant potential confounder, as leftist rule may be a crucial determinant of both gender quota adoption (particularly for voluntary party quotas) and patterns of social spending.\u201d (Control variables, p. 923). On regime characteristics: \u201cwe include\u2026 democracy\u2026 and autocracy\u2026 [and] an index of cumulative democracy\u2026 variables\u2026 that may affect both government spending choices and gender quota adoption.\u201d (Control variables, p. 922\u2013923). On global integration and resources: \u201cWe also include\u2026 official development assistance (ODA), oil rents, total trade\u2026 and foreign direct investment (FDI)\u2026 These variables also indicate the extent to which states are embedded within global networks, likely making them more receptive to\u2026 adopt gender quotas\u2026 [and] we consider them important potential confounders of our relationship of interest.\u201d (Control variables, p. 923). Given DiD with country and year effects, a minimal sufficient set among the provided controls keeps leftlag (ideology), demlag (regime), and key macro channels (lnODAlag, lnOillag, lnTradelag) to block the main backdoor paths the authors highlight, while avoiding redundant cumulative counts.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year/time_trend/time_trend_2","treatments":["adopt_quotalag"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.treat_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0005","treatment":"adopt_quotalag","y":"percenthealth"},"native_id":"8","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"country","controls":["treat","post","demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"percenthealth"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of patsy 'percenthealth ~ treat + post + treat:post + controls', cluster by country"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"country","controls":["treat","post","demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"percenthealth"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_a_pre","ref_c_post","ref_never","ref_panel","ref_t_post"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q008.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q008","task_sha256":"7f6a9750a43f681b3897566eafdd1ff36d5754f08b3171592b7b2b1b011b696e","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q008.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q008.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q008.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q009.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-1.910942500716345,0.5464856052036857],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-1.910942500716345,0.5464856052036857],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.6822284477563296,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q009.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.268949249795996e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.6268949249795996,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q009.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.268949249795996e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":26.0773750487715,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.265710Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_a_pre","reference_frame:ref_c_post","reference_frame:ref_never","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_t_post"],"dtypes":{"ds_0005":{"adopt_quotalag":"float64","percenthealth":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["percenthealth"],"treatment":["adopt_quotalag"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0005","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0005/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0005","gold":{"ci95":[-1.910942500716345,0.5464856052036857],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.6822284477563296,"standard_error":0.6268949249795996},"identification":{"bad_controls":["increaselag","ever_high_adopt_treat"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"group_variable":"country","minimal_controlling_set":["leftlag","demlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"outcomes":["percenthealth"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Both variables are post-treatment/mechanically treatment-determined. increaselag is the size of the initial quota-induced jump in women\u2019s representation (a mediator on the pathway from quota adoption to spending). ever_high_adopt_treat classifies countries based on whether they ever experience a high quota shock, which is defined using post-adoption outcomes. Adjusting for either would induce over-control or collider bias. Guidance: \u201cThe general message\u2026 is that explicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea.\u201d and \u201cover-control bias, by controlling for a mediator.\u201d (Applied Causal Inference Powered by ML and AI, Sec. 11.3, \u2018Post-Treatment Variables\u2019, and Fig. 11.9a).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The paper motivates these as time-varying confounders affecting both quota adoption and spending. On political ideology: \u201cThis is a particularly relevant potential confounder, as leftist rule may be a crucial determinant of both gender quota adoption (particularly for voluntary party quotas) and patterns of social spending.\u201d (Control variables, p. 923). On regime characteristics: \u201cwe include\u2026 democracy\u2026 and autocracy\u2026 [and] an index of cumulative democracy\u2026 variables\u2026 that may affect both government spending choices and gender quota adoption.\u201d (Control variables, p. 922\u2013923). On global integration and resources: \u201cWe also include\u2026 official development assistance (ODA), oil rents, total trade\u2026 and foreign direct investment (FDI)\u2026 These variables also indicate the extent to which states are embedded within global networks, likely making them more receptive to\u2026 adopt gender quotas\u2026 [and] we consider them important potential confounders of our relationship of interest.\u201d (Control variables, p. 923). Given DiD with country and year effects, a minimal sufficient set among the provided controls keeps leftlag (ideology), demlag (regime), and key macro channels (lnODAlag, lnOillag, lnTradelag) to block the main backdoor paths the authors highlight, while avoiding redundant cumulative counts.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year/time_trend/time_trend_2","treatments":["adopt_quotalag"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.treat_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0005","treatment":"adopt_quotalag","y":"percenthealth"},"native_id":"9","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"country","controls":["treat","post","demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"percenthealth"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"OLS of patsy 'percenthealth ~ treat + post + treat:post + controls', cluster by country"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"country","controls":["treat","post","demlag","dem_cumlag","autoclag","leftlag","left_cumlag","lnODAlag","lnOillag","lnTradelag"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"percenthealth"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_a_pre","ref_c_post","ref_never","ref_panel","ref_t_post"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q009.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q009","task_sha256":"8f91504137d2616ecbc6b8b59c81cc2dca291248dbefd30913516c99c59c8592","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q009.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q009.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q009.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q010.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-8.261879502113567,4.083034065422234],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-8.261879502113567,4.083034065422234],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-2.089422718345667,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q010.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.149212644779541e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":3.149212644779541,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q010.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.149212644779541e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":36.730000050738454,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.290676Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_c_post","reference_frame:ref_c_pre","reference_frame:ref_panel"],"dtypes":{"ds_0006":{"bgrowth":"float64","conflict":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["bgrowth"],"treatment":["conflict"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0006","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0006/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0006","gold":{"ci95":[-8.261879502113567,4.083034065422234],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-2.089422718345667,"standard_error":3.149212644779541},"identification":{"bad_controls":["budget","i_budget","lni_budget","ministry_name","ministry_code","head_id","incumbent","council","board","creator","academic","political","private","public"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"agency_id/bs_agency_id","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["bgrowth"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Post-treatment or mechanically affected variables should not be conditioned on when identifying total effects via adjustment/DID. Chernozhukov et al. (2025, Section 11.3 Post\u2011Treatment Variables) emphasize: \u201cthe general message of this section is that explicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea.\u201d They note over-control bias when \u201ca post-treatment variable \u2026 lies on a causal path from the treatment to the outcome\u201d and that \u201ccontrolling for a mediator \u2026 [yields] a controlled direct effect,\u201d not the total effect (Sec. 11.3; Figs. 11.9a\u2013b). They also warn against conditioning on outcomes or descendants of outcomes (Fig. 11.12) and against variables mechanically tied to treatment that can distort identification by adjustment. Applying these rules here:\n- budget, i_budget, lni_budget: contemporaneous budget levels are outcomes/mediators for bgrowth (which is defined from consecutive budgets); conditioning on them blocks part of the treatment effect (over-control, Sec. 11.3).\n- ministry_name, ministry_code: supervising ministry in a given year may be reassigned after turnover; these can be descendants of treatment (post\u2011treatment organizational channel), so conditioning risks blocking paths from conflict to budgets (Sec. 11.3).\n- head_id and incumbent: identity/holdover status in the post year can change because of the new government; these are post\u2011treatment and potentially mediating the effect (Sec. 11.3).\n- council, board: agency governance bodies \u201cin place that year\u201d can be created/removed by the incoming government; thus post\u2011treatment organizational features (Sec. 11.3).\n- creator: this variable is defined relative to the current parliamentary majority (\u201ccreated by a bloc opposed to the current parliamentary majority\u201d); because it is a mechanical function of the current majority\u2014the same shock that generates conflict\u2014it is affected by treatment status. Conditioning on it risks partialing out treatment variation and inducing post\u2011treatment bias (Sec. 11.3; avoid variables that are functions of treatment).\n- academic, political, private, public: these are the head\u2019s sectoral backgrounds measured in each year. When heads are replaced around turnover, these covariates become descendants of treatment in the post period, so adjusting for their post\u2011period values conditions on mediators (Sec. 11.3). If measured strictly pre\u2011treatment they are not post\u2011treatment, but in the two\u2011year DID windows they are recorded contemporaneously, so they should be excluded for causal identification of total effects.","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"No time\u2011varying covariate adjustment is required beyond agency and year fixed effects for the short 2\u00d72 DID comparisons. The paper\u2019s design explicitly relies on within\u2011agency changes around government turnover and absorbs confounders with fixed effects: \u201cNotice that the fixed effects cover a variety of potential confounders from the outset\u2026 we therefore adjust for any such constant differences between agencies and fiscal years by including one dummy variable for each agency and each fiscal year in the regression model.\u201d (Modeling strategy, p. 647). Treatment variation is plausibly exogenous because \u201cthe government\u2019s electoral cycle proceeds independently of the agency heads\u2019 employment contracts, [so] each fiscal year effectively carries a structure\u2011induced variation in the types of agencies that the parties in power must face\u201d (The Swedish case, p. 645), and \u201cthe uncertainty associated with ordinary democratic political competition should greatly assist with confounding control, as the range of factors that could plausibly cause a partisan shift in government is limited\u201d (The Swedish case, p. 646). Given these features and the two\u2011period windows (pre vs. post election), the minimal sufficient set for identification is none beyond group and time effects.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["conflict"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.treat_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0006","treatment":"conflict","y":"bgrowth"},"native_id":"10","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"agency_id","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"bgrowth"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('bgrowth ~ treat * post'), cluster by agency_id"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"agency_id","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"bgrowth"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_c_post","ref_c_pre","ref_panel"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q010.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q010","task_sha256":"5947133126dba05ce7f63b3d954bd907d7b5f6866b6e2b3c1398a12ee4ebe928","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q010.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q010.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q010.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q011.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-8.274393023760869,16.784632054135194],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-8.274393023760869,16.784632054135194],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":4.255119515187162,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q011.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.392608438238792e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":6.392608438238792,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q011.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.392608438238792e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":37.36199997365475,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.303497Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post"],"dtypes":{"ds_0006":{"bgrowth":"float64","conflict":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["bgrowth"],"treatment":["conflict"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0006","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0006/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0006","gold":{"ci95":[-8.274393023760869,16.784632054135194],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":4.255119515187162,"standard_error":6.392608438238792},"identification":{"bad_controls":["budget","i_budget","lni_budget","ministry_name","ministry_code","head_id","incumbent","council","board","creator","academic","political","private","public"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"agency_id/bs_agency_id","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["bgrowth"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Post-treatment or mechanically affected variables should not be conditioned on when identifying total effects via adjustment/DID. Chernozhukov et al. (2025, Section 11.3 Post\u2011Treatment Variables) emphasize: \u201cthe general message of this section is that explicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea.\u201d They note over-control bias when \u201ca post-treatment variable \u2026 lies on a causal path from the treatment to the outcome\u201d and that \u201ccontrolling for a mediator \u2026 [yields] a controlled direct effect,\u201d not the total effect (Sec. 11.3; Figs. 11.9a\u2013b). They also warn against conditioning on outcomes or descendants of outcomes (Fig. 11.12) and against variables mechanically tied to treatment that can distort identification by adjustment. Applying these rules here:\n- budget, i_budget, lni_budget: contemporaneous budget levels are outcomes/mediators for bgrowth (which is defined from consecutive budgets); conditioning on them blocks part of the treatment effect (over-control, Sec. 11.3).\n- ministry_name, ministry_code: supervising ministry in a given year may be reassigned after turnover; these can be descendants of treatment (post\u2011treatment organizational channel), so conditioning risks blocking paths from conflict to budgets (Sec. 11.3).\n- head_id and incumbent: identity/holdover status in the post year can change because of the new government; these are post\u2011treatment and potentially mediating the effect (Sec. 11.3).\n- council, board: agency governance bodies \u201cin place that year\u201d can be created/removed by the incoming government; thus post\u2011treatment organizational features (Sec. 11.3).\n- creator: this variable is defined relative to the current parliamentary majority (\u201ccreated by a bloc opposed to the current parliamentary majority\u201d); because it is a mechanical function of the current majority\u2014the same shock that generates conflict\u2014it is affected by treatment status. Conditioning on it risks partialing out treatment variation and inducing post\u2011treatment bias (Sec. 11.3; avoid variables that are functions of treatment).\n- academic, political, private, public: these are the head\u2019s sectoral backgrounds measured in each year. When heads are replaced around turnover, these covariates become descendants of treatment in the post period, so adjusting for their post\u2011period values conditions on mediators (Sec. 11.3). If measured strictly pre\u2011treatment they are not post\u2011treatment, but in the two\u2011year DID windows they are recorded contemporaneously, so they should be excluded for causal identification of total effects.","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"No time\u2011varying covariate adjustment is required beyond agency and year fixed effects for the short 2\u00d72 DID comparisons. The paper\u2019s design explicitly relies on within\u2011agency changes around government turnover and absorbs confounders with fixed effects: \u201cNotice that the fixed effects cover a variety of potential confounders from the outset\u2026 we therefore adjust for any such constant differences between agencies and fiscal years by including one dummy variable for each agency and each fiscal year in the regression model.\u201d (Modeling strategy, p. 647). Treatment variation is plausibly exogenous because \u201cthe government\u2019s electoral cycle proceeds independently of the agency heads\u2019 employment contracts, [so] each fiscal year effectively carries a structure\u2011induced variation in the types of agencies that the parties in power must face\u201d (The Swedish case, p. 645), and \u201cthe uncertainty associated with ordinary democratic political competition should greatly assist with confounding control, as the range of factors that could plausibly cause a partisan shift in government is limited\u201d (The Swedish case, p. 646). Given these features and the two\u2011period windows (pre vs. post election), the minimal sufficient set for identification is none beyond group and time effects.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["conflict"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.treat_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0006","treatment":"conflict","y":"bgrowth"},"native_id":"11","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"agency_id","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"bgrowth"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('bgrowth ~ treat * post', data=long), cluster by agency_id"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"agency_id","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"bgrowth"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_panel","ref_post"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q011.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q011","task_sha256":"d6533d628c4e330993c53adde76559fecac8523ab60a10a29549e691ab313e23","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q011.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q011.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q011.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q012.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.08959315431963688,0.5831902690734394],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.08959315431963688,0.5831902690734394],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.33639171169653814,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q012.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.2591763131474552e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.12591763131474554,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q012.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.2591763131474552e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":23.635041899979115,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.314479Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_wpost","reference_frame:ref_wpre","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0007":{"compyr":"float64","lestspend_dall":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["lestspend_dall"],"treatment":["compyr"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0007","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0007/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0007","gold":{"ci95":[0.08959315431963688,0.5831902690734394],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.33639171169653814,"standard_error":0.12591763131474554},"identification":{"bad_controls":["gradeyr","inspyr","ontimeyr","factoryobs_perf"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"fcode","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["lestspend_dall"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"gradeyr is the audit letter grade (A\u2013D) that defines the binary treatment compyr (A/B compliant vs C/D noncompliant), so it is a post-treatment measure and a mechanical function/descendant of the treatment. Controlling for it would amount to conditioning on the treatment or its mediator, inducing over-control bias. The paper states: \u201cFactories rated A and B \u2026 are considered compliant\u2026 Our analysis uses both the original 4-point grading system and this binary distinction\u201d (p. 700). inspyr (quality inspection pass rate) and ontimeyr (on-time delivery) are contemporaneous performance outcomes that the authors sometimes control for, but they plausibly lie on the causal path from compliance to orders; including them blocks part of the total effect. The paper motivates them as \u2018manufacturing performance\u2019 controls and shows results with and without them (eq. 2; p. 702\u2013703). As per the guidance on bad controls, conditioning on post-treatment mediators leads to over-control bias (Applied Causal Inference, \u00a711.3 Post-Treatment Variables: \u201cexplicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea,\u201d and Figures 11.9a\u2013b). factoryobs_perf is \u201cCount of observations used to compute performance metrics in the year (e.g., orders/inspections),\u201d which is downstream of orders (the outcome) and inspections, so conditioning on it risks collider bias or conditioning on an outcome of the outcome (see Figure 11.12c in the guidance).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"A two-way fixed-effects DiD with factory and year fixed effects is the core identification, and the authors explicitly estimate models without time-varying covariates and find similar effects when adding performance controls. Quote: \u201cwe use the panel structure of the data to generate within-factories estimates of the effect of changes in exporter compliance status on importer purchasing behavior. The effect of compliance on orders is estimated by fitting a standard two-way fixed effects regression model\u201d (p. 702). They also report: \u201cAdding controls for manufacturing performance has almost no impact on effect magnitudes\u201d (p. 703). Thus, beyond unit and time fixed effects (encoded via group_variable and time_variable), no additional covariates are minimally required for identification under parallel trends.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year/factorytt","treatments":["compyr"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.treat_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0007","treatment":"compyr","y":"lestspend_dall"},"native_id":"12","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"fcode","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"lestspend_dall"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('lestspend_dall ~ treat*post'), cluster by fcode"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fcode","controls":["treat","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["treat_post"],"y":"lestspend_dall"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_panel","ref_wpost","ref_wpre","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q012.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q012","task_sha256":"72f19df8aa5095740fd8ca8889678272cbde58e23b2f3210532eaadc50388174","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q012.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q012.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q012.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q013.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.000699857108172941,0.4625836606041431],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.000699857108172941,0.4625836606041431],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.231641758856158,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q013.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.178275008918291e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.11782750089182911,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q013.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.178275008918291e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":34.027333138510585,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.337649Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_wpost","reference_frame:ref_wpre","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0007":{"compyr":"float64","lestspend_dall":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["lestspend_dall"],"treatment":["compyr"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0007","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0007/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0007","gold":{"ci95":[0.000699857108172941,0.4625836606041431],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.231641758856158,"standard_error":0.11782750089182911},"identification":{"bad_controls":["gradeyr","inspyr","ontimeyr","factoryobs_perf"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"fcode","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["lestspend_dall"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"gradeyr is the audit letter grade (A\u2013D) that defines the binary treatment compyr (A/B compliant vs C/D noncompliant), so it is a post-treatment measure and a mechanical function/descendant of the treatment. Controlling for it would amount to conditioning on the treatment or its mediator, inducing over-control bias. The paper states: \u201cFactories rated A and B \u2026 are considered compliant\u2026 Our analysis uses both the original 4-point grading system and this binary distinction\u201d (p. 700). inspyr (quality inspection pass rate) and ontimeyr (on-time delivery) are contemporaneous performance outcomes that the authors sometimes control for, but they plausibly lie on the causal path from compliance to orders; including them blocks part of the total effect. The paper motivates them as \u2018manufacturing performance\u2019 controls and shows results with and without them (eq. 2; p. 702\u2013703). As per the guidance on bad controls, conditioning on post-treatment mediators leads to over-control bias (Applied Causal Inference, \u00a711.3 Post-Treatment Variables: \u201cexplicitly adjusting for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea,\u201d and Figures 11.9a\u2013b). factoryobs_perf is \u201cCount of observations used to compute performance metrics in the year (e.g., orders/inspections),\u201d which is downstream of orders (the outcome) and inspections, so conditioning on it risks collider bias or conditioning on an outcome of the outcome (see Figure 11.12c in the guidance).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"A two-way fixed-effects DiD with factory and year fixed effects is the core identification, and the authors explicitly estimate models without time-varying covariates and find similar effects when adding performance controls. 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q018.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.1179775107907875,0.18769819597093396],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.1179775107907875,0.18769819597093396],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.03486034259007323,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q018.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.797849662288812e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.07797849662288812,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q018.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.797849662288812e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":31.357083003968,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.410280Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_cov","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0010":{"p_vreg_bnw":"float64","post_x_covered":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["p_vreg_bnw"],"treatment":["post_x_covered"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"answer_percent":"points","cluster":"ds_0010","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0010/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0010","gold":{"ci95":[-0.1179775107907875,0.18769819597093396],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.03486034259007323,"standard_error":0.07797849662288812},"identification":{"bad_controls":["pop_t_i_ln","pop_b_i_perc","inc_hh_med_i","educ_25p_i"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":[],"group_variable":"county_id","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["p_vreg_bnw"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These are time-varying covariates that can be affected by Section 5 after 1965 (e.g., migration changing population size and racial composition; enfranchisement shifting income/education), so conditioning on them risks post-treatment/over-control bias. 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q045.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-2.9917375936547095,-1.3563997617311254],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-2.9917375936547095,-1.3563997617311254],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-2.1740686776929175,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q045.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.17178018347853e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.41717801834785306,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q045.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.17178018347853e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":27.726707980036736,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.710535Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre","reference_frame:ref_td"],"dtypes":{"ds_0023":{"autos_rate2":"float64","upp_post":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["autos_rate2"],"treatment":["upp_post"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0023","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0023/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0023","gold":{"ci95":[-2.9917375936547095,-1.3563997617311254],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-2.1740686776929175,"standard_error":0.41717801834785306},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["bope"],"group_variable":"complexo_id","minimal_controlling_set":["bope"],"outcomes":["autos_rate2"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"\u201cThe \u2018pacification\u2019 consisted of two nonoverlapping actions: (i) the occupation by BOPE or armed forces, usually taking place a few months before the UPP intervention; and (ii) the establishment of a UPP unit in the area. Therefore, we coded BOPEi,t as a binary variable that takes the value of 1 during the period in which BOPE was present in the favela, and Post_UPPi,t as a binary variable that takes the value of 1 after a UPP was introduced.\u201d (Estimating the Effects of the UPP, p. 567). Table 2 further notes: \u201cAll models include a binary variable for the BOPE invasion period, unit and time fixed-effects, and complexo-specific linear time trends.\u201d","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"date","treatments":["upp_post"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.interaction"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0023","treatment":"upp_post","y":"autos_rate2"},"native_id":"45","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"complexo_id","controls":["treated","post","bope"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["interaction"],"y":"y"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, interaction, bope]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=unit, use_t=True) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"complexo_id","controls":["treated","post","bope"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["interaction"],"y":"y"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre","ref_td"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q045.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q045","task_sha256":"09b4dd955b27bc578788ecba37e9142a77dba0da7950b8122cf8f065a532d65c","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q045.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q045.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q045.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q046.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.042492730810336415,0.07282725830583116],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.042492730810336415,0.07282725830583116],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.05765999455808379,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q046.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.738399871299681e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.007738399871299681,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q046.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.738399871299681e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":58.65775002166629,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.757378Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_evp","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0024":{"tr_ar":"float64","turnout":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["turnout"],"treatment":["tr_ar"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0024","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0024/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0024","gold":{"ci95":[0.042492730810336415,0.07282725830583116],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.05765999455808379,"standard_error":0.007738399871299681},"identification":{"bad_controls":["perc_bl","pop_tot","income"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"fips","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["turnout"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These county-year demographics are measured in the post period and can themselves respond to traumatic events (e.g., out\u2011migration, compositional change, or income shocks). Conditioning on post\u2011treatment variables risks over\u2011control and collider bias. Guidance: \u201ccontrolling for post-treatment variables is almost always a bad idea\u201d (Applied Causal Inference, Sec. 11.3 Post\u2011Treatment Variables, p. 309). Post\u2011treatment controls that lie on causal paths induce \u201cover\u2011control bias\u201d (p. 310) and can introduce \u201ccollider stratification bias\u201d (p. 311). In this study, these controls vary by year: \u201cDemographic measures (percent Black, total population, median household income) were taken from Census/ACS data\u201d (APSR 2023, Data, p. 1042), and traumatic events can cause \u201cdisplacement\u201d (APSR 2023, Cases: Natural disasters \u201c\u2026cause loss of life\u2026 and displacement,\u201d p. 1040). Because tr_ar can occur between elections and these covariates are recorded in the election year, they are plausibly descendants of treatment in the post period and thus bad controls.","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"Identification comes from comparing within\u2011county changes across time with county and year fixed effects, relying on parallel trends without needing time\u2011varying covariates. The paper states: \u201cThe generalized TWFE model\u2026 compares the change in a county experiencing a traumatic event (treated) with the same change in a county that did not experience a traumatic event (untreated), controlling for the possibility of secular temporal trends\u201d (APSR 2023, Methods, p. 1043), and that this \u201callows me to account for unobserved or difficult\u2011to\u2011observe time\u2011invariant confounders that are constant within a county within election cycles\u201d (p. 1043). Since the author\u2019s added demographics are time\u2011varying and plausibly post\u2011treatment, the minimal sufficient set among the provided controls is none to avoid post\u2011treatment bias while maintaining the DiD identification via fixed effects and parallel trends.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["tr_ar"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.did"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0024","treatment":"tr_ar","y":"turnout"},"native_id":"46","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["treated_group","post","post_x_perc_bl_pre","post_x_pop_tot_pre","post_x_income_pre"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["did"],"y":"turnout"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"sm.OLS(turnout, add_constant([treated_group, post, did, post_x_*_pre]), missing='drop').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=fips) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["treated_group","post","post_x_perc_bl_pre","post_x_pop_tot_pre","post_x_income_pre"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["did"],"y":"turnout"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_evp","ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q046.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q046","task_sha256":"1084cc549eaf4af71328fca013965d5b3c7824bc7715c5af5ea6bca593905370","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q046.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q046.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q046.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q047.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-4.525834998078203,23.042285244253353],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-4.525834998078203,23.042285244253353],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":9.258225123087575,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q047.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.0326837352886625e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":7.032683735288662,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q047.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":7.0326837352886625e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":17.59004103951156,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.728311Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_adopt","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0025":{"primratio":"float64","treatment":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["primratio"],"treatment":["treatment"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0025","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0025/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0025","gold":{"ci95":[-4.525834998078203,23.042285244253353],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":9.258225123087575,"standard_error":7.032683735288662},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"Countryid","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["primratio"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The paper\u2019s event-study DiD specification includes country and year effects that absorb confounding from time-invariant differences and common shocks: \u201c\u03b3_i accounts for permanent observable and unobservable country characteristics\u2026 \u03d5_t accounts for any common time shocks that affect countries with and without civil war\u201d (Cross-national Evidence section, p. 1248). The identifying pre-trend diagnostics show no differential trends before treatment: \u201cthe estimated coefficients for n < 0 are close to zero and not statistically different from zero, lending credibility to the identifying assumption\u201d (p. 1249). Given only year, Countryid, treatment, and primratio are available, no additional covariates beyond these fixed effects are needed for identification in the 2\u00d72 cohort vs not-yet-treated comparisons.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["treatment"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.Interaction"]},"item_caveats":[{"kind":"implicit_window","note":"the question leaves implicit the comparison years the gold's script uses (pre year 1848)"}],"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0025","treatment":"treatment","y":"primratio"},"native_id":"47","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"Countryid","controls":["Post","TreatCohort"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Interaction"],"y":"primratio"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"sm.OLS(primratio, add_constant([Post, TreatCohort, Interaction])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=Countryid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"Countryid","controls":["Post","TreatCohort"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Interaction"],"y":"primratio"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_adopt","ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q047.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q047","task_sha256":"7bf70440ed7e6f908e2be9a89d888bc970d5b3846df0d11184ca41ee8a4ebf79","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q047.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q047.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q047.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q048.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[2.771131447796562,13.58427796246815],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[2.771131447796562,13.58427796246815],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":8.177704705132356,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q048.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.7584557435386706e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":2.7584557435386707,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q048.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.7584557435386706e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":14.001542003825307,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.742422Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_adopt","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre","reference_frame:ref_years"],"dtypes":{"ds_0025":{"primratio":"float64","treatment":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["primratio"],"treatment":["treatment"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0025","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0025/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0025","gold":{"ci95":[2.771131447796562,13.58427796246815],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":8.177704705132356,"standard_error":2.7584557435386707},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"Countryid","minimal_controlling_set":[],"outcomes":["primratio"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The paper\u2019s event-study DiD specification includes country and year effects that absorb confounding from time-invariant differences and common shocks: \u201c\u03b3_i accounts for permanent observable and unobservable country characteristics\u2026 \u03d5_t accounts for any common time shocks that affect countries with and without civil war\u201d (Cross-national Evidence section, p. 1248). The identifying pre-trend diagnostics show no differential trends before treatment: \u201cthe estimated coefficients for n < 0 are close to zero and not statistically different from zero, lending credibility to the identifying assumption\u201d (p. 1249). Given only year, Countryid, treatment, and primratio are available, no additional covariates beyond these fixed effects are needed for identification in the 2\u00d72 cohort vs not-yet-treated comparisons.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["treatment"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.Interaction"]},"item_caveats":[{"kind":"implicit_window","note":"the question leaves implicit the comparison years the gold's script uses (pre year 1879)"}],"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0025","treatment":"treatment","y":"primratio"},"native_id":"48","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"Countryid","controls":["Post","TreatCohort"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Interaction"],"y":"primratio"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"sm.OLS(primratio, add_constant([Post, TreatCohort, Interaction])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=Countryid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"Countryid","controls":["Post","TreatCohort"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["Interaction"],"y":"primratio"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_adopt","ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q048.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q048","task_sha256":"5cc24c83fc1aa26fc2e2cc43132b6caf1e42115ce4d57ab41fd34b0c9ef0f572","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q048.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q048.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q048.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q049.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.01304470401956573,0.023135479202175756],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.01304470401956573,0.023135479202175756],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.005045387591305012,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q049.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":9.229638576974868e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.009229638576974869,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q049.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":9.229638576974868e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":245.428082998842,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.988039Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre"],"dtypes":{"ds_0026":{"lobby":"float64","mismatch":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["lobby"],"treatment":["mismatch"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0026","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0026/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0026","gold":{"ci95":[-0.01304470401956573,0.023135479202175756],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.005045387591305012,"standard_error":0.009229638576974869},"identification":{"bad_controls":["lobby.amount","log.lobby.amount","lobby.lead1","ever.lobby","mismatch.lead1","mismatch.lead2","median.mismatch","total.state.rev.orig","total.ig.rev.orig","total.fed.rev.orig","total.rev.orig","property.tax.orig","total.taxes.orig","tot.chgs.and.misc.rev.orig","interest.rev.orig","total.expenditure.orig","total.current.operating.orig","total.capital.outlays.orig","total.construction.orig","total.salaries.wages.orig","total.debt.outstanding.orig","log.total.rev","log.own.source","log.taxes","log.state","log.salaries","log.exp","log.debt"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["log.pop"],"group_variable":"fips","minimal_controlling_set":["log.pop"],"outcomes":["lobby"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These variables are post-treatment or mechanically downstream of treatment/outcome for the DiD estimating equation of mismatch -> lobby. The paper explicitly shows that cities hire lobbyists to influence funding and fiscal outcomes: they aim to \u201cprotect local revenue sources,\u201d \u201cprotect and increase funding for specific programs and services,\u201d and oppose policies that reduce local authority (p. 680). It further states that cities target \u201clegislative earmarks, budget and appropriations bills, policies with a local impact, and executive grants\u201d (p. 680). Thus fiscal inflows (e.g., state intergovernmental revenue), revenues, expenditures, and debt are mediators or outcomes of lobbying/representation and controlling for them would induce over-control bias (Cinelli\u2013Forney\u2013Pearl \u2018bad controls\u2019 and Chernozhukov et al. Section 11.3: post-treatment/mediator controls create over-control bias). Variables such as lobby.amount/log.lobby.amount, lobby.lead1, ever.lobby are outcomes or future outcomes and are classic post-treatment controls (Chernozhukov et al., Sec. 11.3\u201311.4: controlling for outcomes or outcomes-of-outcomes introduces bias). Future treatment indicators mismatch.lead1/mismatch.lead2 or panel summaries like median.mismatch are also post-treatment relative to the current period and should not be conditioned on (anticipation/selection per Chernozhukov et al., Sec. 11.3\u201311.4).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The core DiD identification in the paper relies on city and time (or state-by-year) fixed effects, which absorb time-invariant city traits and common or state-specific shocks: \u201cLobby_it = \u03b21 Mismatch_it + X_it \u03b22 + \u03b3_i + \u03b7_t + \u03b5_it,\u201d with \u03b3_i (city fixed effects) and \u03b7_t (year or state-by-year fixed effects) (pp. 681\u2013682). \u201cThe city fixed effects control for time invariant local characteristics\u2026 The year fixed effects account for temporal shocks\u2026 The state-by-year fixed effects go a step further and control for state specific conditions\u2026 [and] proxy for changes to the state legislative agenda\u201d (p. 682). Population (log) is the only systematic time-varying city covariate included across specifications (Table 1 shows \u201cPopulation (log)\u201d as a regressor; the California robustness note states, \u201cThe models control for population,\u201d Table 3, p. 687). Given FE plus state-year FE, log.pop is a parsimonious adjustment for evolving city scale that may correlate with both lobbying propensity and exposure to mismatch, while avoiding post-treatment fiscal variables.","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year","treatments":["mismatch"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.post_treat_group"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0026","treatment":"mismatch","y":"lobby"},"native_id":"49","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["post","treat_group","log_pop"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["post_treat_group"],"y":"lobby"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('lobby ~ post + treat_group + post:treat_group + log_pop').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=fips) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)\u00b7(N-1)/(N-K) correction)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","controls":["post","treat_group","log_pop"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["post_treat_group"],"y":"lobby"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_panel","ref_post","ref_pre"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q049.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q049","task_sha256":"f6f3f778050c7c4f83c33e657ffa6dce08bae2f3b4a59b846dcc0ef00b676131","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q049.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q049.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q049.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q050.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.0663450167952214,0.05536472612213955],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.0663450167952214,0.05536472612213955],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.00549014533654092,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q050.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.1048403805449215e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.03104840380544922,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q050.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.1048403805449215e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":249.19729097746313,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.006686Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre"],"dtypes":{"ds_0026":{"lobby":"float64","mismatch":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["lobby"],"treatment":["mismatch"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0026","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0026/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0026","gold":{"ci95":[-0.0663450167952214,0.05536472612213955],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.00549014533654092,"standard_error":0.03104840380544922},"identification":{"bad_controls":["lobby.amount","log.lobby.amount","lobby.lead1","ever.lobby","mismatch.lead1","mismatch.lead2","median.mismatch","total.state.rev.orig","total.ig.rev.orig","total.fed.rev.orig","total.rev.orig","property.tax.orig","total.taxes.orig","tot.chgs.and.misc.rev.orig","interest.rev.orig","total.expenditure.orig","total.current.operating.orig","total.capital.outlays.orig","total.construction.orig","total.salaries.wages.orig","total.debt.outstanding.orig","log.total.rev","log.own.source","log.taxes","log.state","log.salaries","log.exp","log.debt"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["log.pop"],"group_variable":"fips","minimal_controlling_set":["log.pop"],"outcomes":["lobby"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These variables are post-treatment or mechanically downstream of treatment/outcome for the DiD estimating equation of mismatch -> lobby. The paper explicitly shows that cities hire lobbyists to influence funding and fiscal outcomes: they aim to \u201cprotect local revenue sources,\u201d \u201cprotect and increase funding for specific programs and services,\u201d and oppose policies that reduce local authority (p. 680). It further states that cities target \u201clegislative earmarks, budget and appropriations bills, policies with a local impact, and executive grants\u201d (p. 680). Thus fiscal inflows (e.g., state intergovernmental revenue), revenues, expenditures, and debt are mediators or outcomes of lobbying/representation and controlling for them would induce over-control bias (Cinelli\u2013Forney\u2013Pearl \u2018bad controls\u2019 and Chernozhukov et al. Section 11.3: post-treatment/mediator controls create over-control bias). Variables such as lobby.amount/log.lobby.amount, lobby.lead1, ever.lobby are outcomes or future outcomes and are classic post-treatment controls (Chernozhukov et al., Sec. 11.3\u201311.4: controlling for outcomes or outcomes-of-outcomes introduces bias). Future treatment indicators mismatch.lead1/mismatch.lead2 or panel summaries like median.mismatch are also post-treatment relative to the current period and should not be conditioned on (anticipation/selection per Chernozhukov et al., Sec. 11.3\u201311.4).","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The core DiD identification in the paper relies on city and time (or state-by-year) fixed effects, which absorb time-invariant city traits and common or state-specific shocks: \u201cLobby_it = \u03b21 Mismatch_it + X_it \u03b22 + \u03b3_i + \u03b7_t + \u03b5_it,\u201d with \u03b3_i (city fixed effects) and \u03b7_t (year or state-by-year fixed effects) (pp. 681\u2013682). \u201cThe city fixed effects control for time invariant local characteristics\u2026 The year fixed effects account for temporal shocks\u2026 The state-by-year fixed effects go a step further and control for state specific conditions\u2026 [and] proxy for changes to the state legislative agenda\u201d (p. 682). Population (log) is the only systematic time-varying city covariate included across specifications (Table 1 shows \u201cPopulation (log)\u201d as a regressor; the California robustness note states, \u201cThe models control for population,\u201d Table 3, p. 687). 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q051.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.3051840720629504,-0.04680777739154485],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.3051840720629504,-0.04680777739154485],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.17599592472724762,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q051.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.591232006923611e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.06591232006923611,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q051.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":6.591232006923611e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":78.4612090792507,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:58.897347Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post","reference_frame:ref_pre"],"dtypes":{"ds_0027":{"election_year":"float64","lcapital_exp_pc":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["lcapital_exp_pc"],"treatment":["election_year"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0027","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0027/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0027","gold":{"ci95":[-0.3051840720629504,-0.04680777739154485],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.17599592472724762,"standard_error":0.06591232006923611},"identification":{"bad_controls":["incumbency","ltotalexp_all_pc","capital_sh","personnel_sh"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","controls":["elected_leader_l","enp_all","golkar_share_all","pdip_share_all","services_provision","rev_total_pc2_l","rev_natural_pc_l","gini_l","poverty_pc_l","lgdppc_l","lpop_l"],"group_variable":"kode_neil","minimal_controlling_set":["elected_leader_l"],"outcomes":["lcapital_exp_pc"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"Incumbency is part of the mechanism by which election years affect capital spending, so adjusting for it would block part of the treatment effect (a post-treatment mediator). 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As such, dpres is plausibly post-treatment in the post period and conditioning on it risks absorbing a treatment pathway (Chernozhukov et al., Sec. 11.4).","strategy":"Difference-in-Differences","time_variable":"year3","treatments":["treatment/covered_new2"]},"identification_strategy":"Difference-in-Differences"},"headline_keys":{"infer.ols":["coef.gained_post"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0030","treatment":"treatment","y":"correct"},"native_id":"58","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"redistrict_decade","controls":["gained_coverage","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["gained_post"],"y":"correct"},"tool":"infer.ols","why":"smf.ols('correct ~ gained_coverage * post').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=redistrict_decade)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"redistrict_decade","controls":["gained_coverage","post"],"dataset":"ref_panel","x":["gained_post"],"y":"correct"},"tool":"infer.ols"}],"needs":[],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_c1","ref_c2","ref_panel","ref_years"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q058.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","did","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q058","task_sha256":"631f345e3ac5c2a91724fb189cc77fe81ae8f6d594eb65f0441c510dff597aaa","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q058.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q058.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q058.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q059.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.012794496834073773,0.006321456741438762],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.012794496834073773,0.006321456741438762],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.003236520046317505,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q059.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.876518769263402e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.004876518769263402,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q059.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.876518769263402e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":306.9167919456959,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.248261Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_adopt","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post"],"dtypes":{"ds_0031":{"fairhousingimp_v1":"float64","pctnhwht_cityi":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["pctnhwht_cityi"],"treatment":["fairhousingimp_v1"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0031","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0031/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0031","gold":{"ci95":[-0.012794496834073773,0.006321456741438762],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.003236520046317505,"standard_error":0.004876518769263402},"identification":{"bad_controls":["homevali","pct_vacanti","logpop","pctrenter_cityi","pctwlth_city2i"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"geo_id2","outcomes":["pctnhwht_cityi"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These variables are plausibly post-treatment (mediators or colliders) once a Fair Housing Act (FHA) injunctive decision compels a change in local land-use policy, so conditioning on them risks over-control or selection bias. The paper explicitly states that an FHA violation leads to court-ordered policy change: \u201cOnce a violation is established, the Act entitles plaintiffs to injunctive relief\u2014meaning that the city is ordered by the court to change its land use policy.\u201d (p. 450). The theory sections detail that land-use regulation affects housing markets and demographics: \u201cGenerally, empirical work shows that more stringent land use regimes are associated with higher housing prices\u201d (p. 446) and that regulation \u201ccan prevent congestion by limiting the number of people who access the community\u2019s public goods\u201d (pp. 445\u2013446), implying effects on population levels and tenure. 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q060.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.009090713011445279,0.008250437292670009],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.009090713011445279,0.008250437292670009],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.00042013785938763495,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q060.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.423762832682472e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.004423762832682472,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q060.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":4.423762832682472e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":335.96358308568597,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.287551Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_adopt","reference_frame:ref_panel","reference_frame:ref_post"],"dtypes":{"ds_0031":{"fairhousingimp_v1":"float64","pctnhwht_cityi":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["pctnhwht_cityi"],"treatment":["fairhousingimp_v1"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0031","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0031/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0031","gold":{"ci95":[-0.009090713011445279,0.008250437292670009],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.00042013785938763495,"standard_error":0.004423762832682472},"identification":{"bad_controls":["homevali","pct_vacanti","logpop","pctrenter_cityi","pctwlth_city2i"],"causal_quantity":"ATT","group_variable":"geo_id2","outcomes":["pctnhwht_cityi"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These variables are plausibly post-treatment (mediators or colliders) once a Fair Housing Act (FHA) injunctive decision compels a change in local land-use policy, so conditioning on them risks over-control or selection bias. 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Therefore: (i) homevali (average home value) lies on the causal pathway from policy change to market prices; (ii) pct_vacanti (vacancy) and logpop (population) are downstream of development and access restrictions; (iii) pctrenter_cityi (tenure mix) can shift as multifamily supply and permitting change under injunction; (iv) pctwlth_city2i (share wealthy) can adjust as prices and access change. Per the guidance: \u201cPost-treatment variables\u2026 almost always a bad idea\u201d (Applied Causal Inference, \u00a711.3\u201311.4) and \u201ccontrolling for a mediator produces over-control bias\u201d (Figure 11.9a), while conditioning on post-treatment outcomes can also induce collider/selection bias (Figure 11.12). 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See the guidance: post-treatment variables (mediators, outcomes of treatment, or colliders) should not be adjusted for when estimating total effects.","reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"\u201cThe share of a respondent\u2019s siblings who are sisters depends on family size\u2026 the natural experiment is blocked within family size. \u2026 we report specifications that control for the respondent\u2019s number of siblings (1) linearly and (2) nonlinearly with fixed effects for family size.\u201d (Econometrics of Family Size, pp. 1027\u20131028).","strategy":"Instrumental Variable","treatments":["share_sis"],"variant":"fuzzy"},"identification_strategy":"Instrumental Variable"},"headline_keys":{"infer.iv_2sls":["coef.share_sis"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0042","treatment":"share_sis","y":"womens_rights73"},"native_id":"72","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"PSU","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["share_sis"],"exog":["num_sib"],"instruments":["closest"],"y":"womens_rights73"},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","why":"IV2SLS.from_formula('womens_rights73 ~ 1 + num_sib + [share_sis ~ closest]').fit(cov_type='clustered', clusters=PSU)"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"PSU","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["share_sis"],"exog":["num_sib"],"instruments":["closest"],"y":"womens_rights73"},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls"}],"needs":["needs_op:iv_cluster_cr0"],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_iv"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q072.script"}},"model":"rules-1","n_estimator_calls_before_answer":0,"native":{"any_cited_would_pass":false,"crb.prediction":0.0},"provider":"baseline","reason":"","score":0.25,"split":"public","status":"failed","stopped":"answered","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","iv","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","task_id":"crb_papers.q072","task_sha256":"2acedd996aab2b150b5ee01dd53d9d49b4bf81b88294b9a1b193c43d645c11a5","tools_called":[],"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q072.e1.a1.jsonl","trace_file":"traces/crb_papers.q072.e1.a1.jsonl","trajectory":"trajectories/crb_papers.q072.e1.a1.jsonl","unbacked":[],"usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q073.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[1.801054992539965,6.05627044236193],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[1.801054992539965,6.05627044236193],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":3.9286627174509476,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q073.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.085514145362746e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":1.0855141453627462,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q073.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.085514145362746e-06,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":70.74566697701812,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.347175Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv"],"dtypes":{"ds_0043":{"direct":"float64","wm_turnout":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["wm_turnout"],"treatment":["direct"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0043","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0043/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0043","gold":{"ci95":[1.801054992539965,6.05627044236193],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":3.9286627174509476,"standard_error":1.0855141453627462},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CLATE","controls":["left","wm_voters","enep"],"cutoff":0,"minimal_controlling_set":["left","wm_voters","enep"],"outcomes":["wm_turnout"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"I also include control variables to account for possible confounding factors. 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q074.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.36172254721849234,0.02393113006444131],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.36172254721849234,0.02393113006444131],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.16889570857702552,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q074.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":9.838104012319735e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.09838104012319736,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q074.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":9.838104012319735e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":93.67375005967915,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.381362Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv","needs_op:iv_se_hc0"],"dtypes":{"ds_0044":{"govt":"float64","treat_actual":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["govt"],"treatment":["treat_actual"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0044","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0044/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0044","gold":{"ci95":[-0.36172254721849234,0.02393113006444131],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.16889570857702552,"standard_error":0.09838104012319736},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"LATE","controls":["pop","YEAR","city"],"instrument":["treat_assign"],"is_encouragement_design":false,"minimal_controlling_set":["pop","YEAR","city"],"outcomes":["govt"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"\u201cWe also include city fixed effects (\u03b4) and decade fixed effects (\u03b6), which control for unobserved municipality and decade\u2011specific factors.\u201d And because the estimand is representational over/under\u2011representation, \u201cwe include X_mt, which is a vector of values capturing a given group\u2019s share of the total population in decade t in municipality m.\u201d (Research Design \u2014 Empirical Strategy 1, p. 207). The IV specification mirrors this setup, adding the same controls in both stages (Empirical Strategy 2, pp. 208\u2013209).","strategy":"Instrumental Variable","treatments":["treat_actual"],"variant":"fuzzy; staggered adoption instrumented by state mandates"},"identification_strategy":"Instrumental Variable"},"headline_keys":{"infer.iv_2sls":["coef.treat_actual"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0044","treatment":"treat_actual","y":"govt"},"native_id":"74","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["treat_actual"],"exog":["pop","YEAR_1860.0","YEAR_1870.0","YEAR_1880.0","YEAR_1900.0","YEAR_1910.0","YEAR_1920.0","YEAR_1930.0","YEAR_1940.0","city_albany, ny","city_alexandria, la","city_allentown, pa","city_alliance, oh","city_altoona, pa","city_ames, ia","city_amsterdam, ny","city_anniston, al","city_appleton, wi","city_arnold, pa","city_ashland, oh","city_ashland, wi","city_ashtabula, 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q081.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[-0.13094526994891065,-0.023037402860295993],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.13094526994891065,-0.023037402860295993],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.07699133640460332,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q081.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.752751711444251e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.027527517114442512,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q081.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.752751711444251e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":50.80475006252527,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.460936Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv","needs_op:iv_se_hc0"],"dtypes":{"ds_0051":{"chng_lib":"float64","prop_3km":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["chng_lib"],"treatment":["prop_3km"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0051","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0051/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0051","gold":{"ci95":[-0.13094526994891065,-0.023037402860295993],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":-0.07699133640460332,"standard_error":0.027527517114442512},"identification":{"bad_controls":["votes_lib","perc_lib","voter_turnout","perc_turnout","votes_lib_fed","perc_lib_fed","turnout_fed","perc_turnout_fed","op","treat_o","op_1km","treat_o_1km","op_2km","treat_o_2km","op_3km","treat_o_3km","op_4km","treat_o_4km","op_5km","treat_o_5km","op_6km","treat_o_6km","avg_home_val_log/avg_home_val"],"causal_quantity":"LATE","controls":["mindistlake/mindistlake_log","mindistlake_sq","longitude","long_sq","latitude","lat_sq","long_lat","ed_id"],"instrument":["avg_pwr_log/avg_pwr"],"is_encouragement_design":false,"minimal_controlling_set":["ed_id","mindistlake/mindistlake_log","mindistlake_sq","longitude","long_sq","latitude","lat_sq","long_lat"],"outcomes":["chng_lib"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"These variables are post-treatment or downstream of treatment and would induce over-control or collider bias if conditioned on. 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The paper argues siting was driven by wind resources, not politics: \u201cWind project treatment assignment to communities in Ontario\u2026 was plausibly exogenous to political boundaries: Wind farms were proposed and built where wind resources were strongest, and wind resources are conditionally orthogonal to the political preferences of voters.\u201d (p. 963). 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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","attempt":1,"attempts":[{"attempt":1,"error":null,"error_kind":null,"trace":"traces/crb_papers.q082.e1.a1.jsonl","usage":{"cache_read_tokens":0,"cache_write_tokens":0,"cached_tokens":0,"input_tokens":0,"model_calls":1,"output_tokens":0,"thought_tokens":0,"turns":1}}],"caveats":[],"checks":[{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.0032912053316599956,0.018405692992831957],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.0032912053316599956,0.018405692992831957],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.010848449162245977,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q082.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.855736648258153e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.0038557366482581536,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q082.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":3.855736648258153e-09,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0}],"decided_by_check":1,"diagnosed_class":null,"duration_ms":337.8327919635922,"epoch":1,"error_kind":null,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","figure_refs":[],"finished_at":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.775261Z","first_estimate":null,"isolation":"pass","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv","needs_op:iv_se_hc0"],"dtypes":{"ds_0052":{"anger":"float64","fourpack_1_01":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["fourpack_1_01"],"treatment":["anger"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0052","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0052/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0052","gold":{"ci95":[0.0032912053316599956,0.018405692992831957],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.010848449162245977,"standard_error":0.0038557366482581536},"identification":{"bad_controls":["fourpack_2_01","fourpack_3_01","fourpack_4_01","talking_01","meal_01","club_01","date_01","family_date_01","friendship_01","family_01","divorce_gop_01","friends_comfort_01","neighbors_comfort_01","marry_upset_01","news_share_01","WC","Analytic","Clout","Authentic","Tone","WPS","Sixltr","Dic","function.","pronoun","ppron","i","we","you","shehe","they","ipron","article","prep","auxverb","adverb","conj","negate","verb","adj","compare","interrog","number","quant","affect","posemo","negemo","anx","sad","social","family.y","friend","female.y","male","cogproc","insight","cause","discrep","tentat","certain","differ","percept","see","hear","feel","bio","body","health","sexual","ingest","drives","affiliation","achieve","power","reward","risk","focuspast","focuspresent","focusfuture","relativ","motion","space","time","work","leisure","home","money","relig","death","informal","swear","netspeak","assent","nonflu","filler","AllPunc","Period","Comma","Colon","SemiC","QMark","Exclam","Dash","Quote","Apostro","Parenth","OtherP"],"causal_quantity":"LATE","controls":["democrat"],"instrument":["treated/control"],"is_encouragement_design":true,"minimal_controlling_set":["democrat"],"outcomes":["fourpack_1_01"],"reason_for_bad_controls":"All listed LIWC text features and alternative polarization items are measured after random assignment and the emotional-recall writing task. 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