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County identifiers (fips) link each row to a specific U.S. county; the dataset includes processed vote-share measures for a selected down-ballot statewide race and the concurrent gubernatorial race, and analytic indicators (expressed here in residualized form) that summarize whether a candidate was born in or resides near the county. The original returns and candidate biographical information were drawn from official election offices, archival sources, and biographical repositories; the provided variables have been transformed (e.g., demeaning/residualization) to match the preprocessing used in the replication code.","file_sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0048/data/data.csv"},"ref_iv":{"columns":null,"description":"The script's five columns, complete rows","file_sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"reference","sha256":"e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]},"op":"dropna"}],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0048/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q078","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["reference_frame:ref_iv","needs_op:iv_cluster_cr0"],"dtypes":{"ds_0048":{"DemShareDB_res":"float64","DemShareGOV_res":"float64"}},"named":{"outcome":["DemShareDB_res"],"treatment":["DemShareGOV_res"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0048","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0048/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0048","gold":{"ci95":[0.023946690588264513,0.30292107923359035],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.16343388491092745,"standard_error":0.07116693587890967},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"LATE","controls":["HomeDB_res"],"instrument":["HomeGOV_res"],"is_encouragement_design":false,"minimal_controlling_set":["HomeDB_res"],"outcomes":["DemShareDB_res"],"reason_for_minimal_controlling_set":"The baseline specification controls for a down-ballot local-candidate indicator so that any non-coattail hometown advantages for the down-ballot race are netted out: \u201cFinally, I include Hometown, an indicator for whether a party\u2019s down-ballot candidate was either born in or resides in the county.\u201d (p. 749, Eq. 3). In the replication data, fixed effects are absorbed via residualization, leaving HomeDB_res as the key outcome-only parent to retain.","strategy":"Instrumental Variable","treatments":["DemShareGOV_res"],"variant":"Friends-and-neighbors (home-county) instrument"},"identification_strategy":"Instrumental Variable"},"headline_keys":{"infer.iv_2sls":["coef.DemShareGOV_res"]},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0048","treatment":"DemShareGOV_res","y":"DemShareDB_res"},"native_id":"78","reference":{"cite":1,"note":"Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.","steps":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["DemShareGOV_res"],"exog":["HomeDB_res"],"instruments":["HomeGOV_res"],"y":"DemShareDB_res"},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","why":"IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model"}]},"reference_path":{"calls":[{"args":{"cluster":"fips","dataset":"ref_iv","endog":["DemShareGOV_res"],"exog":["HomeDB_res"],"instruments":["HomeGOV_res"],"y":"DemShareDB_res"},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls"}],"needs":["needs_op:iv_cluster_cr0"],"provenance":"benchmark_script","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":["ref_iv"],"source_id":"crb_papers.q078.script"}},"question":"What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q078.gold","crb_papers.q078.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","iv","ref_benchmark_script"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}