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In the underlying study, the authors assembled data from 17 states (including Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) spanning elections from the early 1990s through 2012. To enable analysis, records were organized by exact birthdate and tallied into birthdate-day cohorts, producing counts of ballots cast in specified elections for each cohort.\n\nThe excerpted file here centers on the 2008 general election and includes: (a) counts of ballots cast in 2008 (voted08), (b) counts of ballots cast in 2010 (voted10), and (c) a timing variable (days_08) measuring how far each birthdate falls from the 2008 eligibility date. All measures come from administrative voter histories rather than surveys, offering analysts a compact view of participation patterns by birthdate-based cohorts around the 2008 election.","file_sha256":"d7a5665e9e88e54554760b6b2528beeb8d3cfc5ffa3e506e5d8dd8530b49e613","format":"csv","frame_sha256":null,"generator":null,"kind":"file","licence":"redistributed by CausalReasoningBenchmark (MIT) under the original replication data's terms","member":null,"object":null,"params":{},"path":null,"read_kw":{},"records":null,"role":"agent","sha256":"d7a5665e9e88e54554760b6b2528beeb8d3cfc5ffa3e506e5d8dd8530b49e613","transforms":[],"url":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/data/ds_0060/data/data.csv"}},"difficulty":"M","id":"crb_papers.q092","level":"T2","meta":{"agent_reach":{"blocked_by":["no_reference_path","no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected","no_tool:fuzzy_rd"],"dtypes":{"ds_0060":{"voted08":"int64","voted10":"int64"}},"named":{"outcome":["voted10"],"treatment":["voted08"]},"reachable":false,"rule":"magi_bench.reach/1"},"answer_format":{"figure_transform":"identity","round_to":null,"unit_scale":1.0},"cluster":"ds_0060","crb":{"data_path":"data/ds_0060/data/data.csv","dataset_id":"ds_0060","gold":{"ci95":[0.03560548936676071,0.09636059204610743],"ci_rule":"effect \u00b1 1.96\u00b7|standard_error| (evaluate_result.ci_bounds)","effect":0.06598304070643407,"standard_error":0.01549875068350682},"identification":{"causal_quantity":"CLATE","cutoff":0.0,"outcomes":["voted10"],"running_variable":"days_08","strategy":"Regression Discontinuity","treatments":["voted08"],"variant":"fuzzy"},"identification_strategy":"Regression Discontinuity"},"naive":{"dataset":"ds_0060","treatment":"voted08","y":"voted10"},"native_id":"92","reference_path":{"calls":[],"needs":["no_tool:rdrobust_robust_bias_corrected","no_tool:fuzzy_rd"],"provenance":"none","quotes":{},"reference_datasets":[],"source_id":"crb_papers.q092.script"}},"question":"What is the average causal effect of casting a ballot in 2008 on the probability of voting in 2010 for individuals at the margin of voting in 2008?","requires":[],"runner":null,"sources":["crb_papers.q092.gold","crb_papers.q092.script"],"split":"public","suite":"crb_papers","tags":["econ-bench","external","crb","rd","ref_none"],"target":"agent","tool":null,"truth":"CausalReasoningBenchmark gold at the pinned revision: causal_queries.json effect and standard_error (the value the item's estimation.py prints), scored as evaluate_result.py scores estimate_within_solution_ci"}