{"call_id":"call_d5393d5d","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1/crb_papers.q112/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.baseline","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:10:00.484327Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"rules-1","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"ds_0077\",\n \"rows\": 27455,\n \"description\": \"| Variable Name                         | Description                                                                                               |\\n|---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\\n| Unnamed: 0                            | Internal row index from the source file.                                                                  |\\n| iid                                   | Municipality–election identifier.                                                                         |\\n| year                                  | Election year.                                                                                            |\\n| numpar_candidates_eff                 | Effective number of mayoral candidates in the race (Laakso–Taagepera index).                              |\\n| votesh_n1                             | Vote share of the first-place mayoral candidate (percentage points).                                      |\\n| votesh_n2                             | Vote share of the second-place mayoral candidate (percentage points).                                     |\\n| votesh_party_PP                       | Vote share of the PP party’s mayoral candidate in the given election.                                     |\\n| votesh_party_PT                       | Vote share of the PT party’s mayoral candidate in the given election.                                     |\\n| votesh_party_PMDB                     | Vote share of the PMDB party’s mayoral candidate in the given election.                                   |\\n| votesh_party_DEM                      | Vote share of the DEM (formerly PFL) party’s mayoral candidate in the given election.                     |\\n| votesh_party_PSDB                     | Vote share of the PSDB party’s mayoral candidate in the given election.                                   |\\n| winner_educ                           | Educational attainment of the elected mayor.                                                              |\\n| winner_male                           | Indicator equal to 1 if the elected mayor is male, 0 otherwise.                                           |\\n| winner_age                            | Age of the elected mayor (years).                                                                         |\\n| ver_votesh_party_PP                   | PP party’s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election.                            |\\n| ver_votesh_party_PT                   | PT party’s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election.                            |\\n| ver_votesh_party_PMDB                 | PMDB party’s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election.                          |\\n| ver_votesh_party_DEM                  | DEM party’s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election.                           |\\n| ver_votesh_party_PSDB                 | PSDB party’s vote share in the concurrent municipal council (vereador) election.                          |\\n| party_PP_runs                         | Indicator equal to 1 if PP fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election.                             |\\n| party_PT_runs                         | Indicator equal to 1 if PT fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election.                             |\\n| party_PMDB_runs                       | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election.                           |\\n| party_DEM_runs                        | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election.                            |\\n| party_PSDB_runs                       | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB fielded a mayoral candidate in the given election.                           |\\n| mv_party_PP                           | PP party’s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.).                   |\\n| mv_party_PT                           | PT party’s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.).                   |\\n| mv_party_PMDB                         | PMDB party’s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.).                 |\\n| mv_party_DEM                          | DEM party’s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.).                  |\\n| mv_party_PSDB                         | PSDB party’s vote margin in the mayoral race (party vote share minus top opponent, p.p.).                 |\\n| votesh_party_PPfor1                   | PP party’s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1).                                                 |\\n| votesh_party_PTfor1                   | PT party’s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1).                                                 |\\n| votesh_party_PMDBfor1                 | PMDB party’s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1).                                               |\\n| votesh_party_DEMfor1                  | DEM party’s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1).                                                |\\n| votesh_party_PSDBfor1                 | PSDB party’s mayoral vote share in the next election (t+1).                                               |\\n| mv_party_PPfor1                       | PP party’s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                                           |\\n| mv_party_PTfor1                       | PT party’s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                                           |\\n| mv_party_PMDBfor1                     | PMDB party’s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                                         |\\n| mv_party_DEMfor1                      | DEM party’s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                                          |\\n| mv_party_PSDBfor1                     | PSDB party’s vote margin in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                                         |\\n| party_PP_runslag1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if PP ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t−1).                        |\\n| party_PP_runsfor1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if PP runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1).                           |\\n| party_PT_runslag1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if PT ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t−1).                        |\\n| party_PT_runsfor1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if PT runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1).                           |\\n| party_PMDB_runslag1                   | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t−1).                      |\\n| party_PMDB_runsfor1                   | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1).                         |\\n| party_DEM_runslag1                    | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t−1).                       |\\n| party_DEM_runsfor1                    | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1).                          |\\n| party_PSDB_runslag1                   | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB ran a mayoral candidate in the previous election (t−1).                      |\\n| party_PSDB_runsfor1                   | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB runs a mayoral candidate in the next election (t+1).                         |\\n| party_PP_wonfor1                      | Indicator equal to 1 if PP wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1).                                  |\\n| party_PT_wonfor1                      | Indicator equal to 1 if PT wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1).                                  |\\n| party_PMDB_wonfor1                    | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1).                                |\\n| party_DEM_wonfor1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1).                                 |\\n| party_PSDB_wonfor1                    | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB wins the mayoralty in the next election (t+1).                                |\\n| inc_party_won                         | Indicator equal to 1 if the party holding the mayor’s office before the election wins the current race.    |\\n| mv_incparty                           | Vote margin of the pre‑election incumbent party in the current mayoral race (p.p.).                       |\\n| mv_incpartyfor1                       | Vote margin of the party in office at time t in the next mayoral election (t+1), p.p.                      |\\n| inc_party_runsfor1                    | Indicator equal to 1 if the party in office at time t fields a mayoral candidate in the next election.     |\\n| inc_party_wonfor1                     | Indicator equal to 1 if the party in office at time t wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                |\\n| coal_size_party_PP                    | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PP mayoral ticket in the current election (number of parties). |\\n| coal_size_party_PT                    | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PT mayoral ticket in the current election.                     |\\n| coal_size_party_PMDB                  | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PMDB mayoral ticket in the current election.                   |\\n| coal_size_party_DEM                   | Size of the electoral coalition backing the DEM mayoral ticket in the current election.                    |\\n| coal_size_party_PSDB                  | Size of the electoral coalition backing the PSDB mayoral ticket in the current election.                   |\\n| coal_size_party_PPfor1                | Coalition size for the PP mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1).                                       |\\n| coal_size_party_PTfor1                | Coalition size for the PT mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1).                                       |\\n| coal_size_party_PMDBfor1              | Coalition size for the PMDB mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1).                                     |\\n| coal_size_party_DEMfor1               | Coalition size for the DEM mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1).                                      |\\n| coal_size_party_PSDBfor1              | Coalition size for the PSDB mayoral ticket in the next election (t+1).                                     |\\n| dlameduck_runs                        | Indicator equal to 1 if the sitting mayor is term‑limited (lame duck) in this election cycle.              |\\n| dlameduck_party_PP_runs               | Indicator equal to 1 if PP faces a term‑limited mayor from its party in this election.                     |\\n| dlameduck_party_PT_runs               | Indicator equal to 1 if PT faces a term‑limited mayor from its party in this election.                     |\\n| dlameduck_party_PMDB_runs             | Indicator equal to 1 if PMDB faces a term‑limited mayor from its party in this election.                   |\\n| dlameduck_party_DEM_runs              | Indicator equal to 1 if DEM faces a term‑limited mayor from its party in this election.                    |\\n| dlameduck_party_PSDB_runs             | Indicator equal to 1 if PSDB faces a term‑limited mayor from its party in this election.                   |\\n| inc_party_wonfor1_b1                  | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether the party in office at time t wins the next election (t+1).             |\\n| party_PP_wonfor1_b1                   | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PP wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                                |\\n| party_PP_wonlag1_b1                   | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PP won the previous mayoral election (t−1).                             |\\n| party_PT_wonfor1_b1                   | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PT wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                                |\\n| party_PT_wonlag1_b1                   | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PT won the previous mayoral election (t−1).                             |\\n| party_PMDB_wonfor1_b1                 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PMDB wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                              |\\n| party_PMDB_wonlag1_b1                 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PMDB won the previous mayoral election (t−1).                           |\\n| party_DEM_wonfor1_b1                  | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether DEM wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                               |\\n| party_DEM_wonlag1_b1                  | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether DEM won the previous mayoral election (t−1).                            |\\n| party_PSDB_wonfor1_b1                 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PSDB wins the next mayoral election (t+1).                              |\\n| party_PSDB_wonlag1_b1                 | Binary indicator (0/1) for whether PSDB won the previous mayoral election (t−1).                           |\\n| population                            | Municipal population (IBGE).                                                                               |\\n| growth_func_admdir_totalfor1          | Growth in municipal administration employment over the next term (percentage points).                      |\\n| housing_programfor1                   | Indicator equal to 1 if the municipality reports any housing program in the next term.                     |\\n| housing_program_matfor1               | Indicator equal to 1 if the municipality offers a building‑materials housing program in the next term.     |\\n| expmun_asoc_totfor1                   | Total municipal expenditures on social assistance in the next term (local currency).                        |\\n| nxt4yr_mn_des_sum2_shdestot           | Average share of total municipal spending on health, education, and social assistance over the next 4 years.|\\n| pib                                   | Municipal GDP (PIB), local currency.                                                                       |\\n| pibpc                                 | Municipal GDP per capita.                                                                                  |\\n| revenue_total                         | Total municipal revenue (local currency).                                                                  |\\n| expend_total                          | Total municipal expenditures (local currency).                                                             |\\n| dnorte                                | Region dummy: 1 if the municipality is in the North, 0 otherwise.                                          |\\n| dnordeste                             | Region dummy: 1 if in the Northeast, 0 otherwise.                                                          |\\n| dsudeste                              | Region dummy: 1 if in the Southeast, 0 otherwise.                                                          |\\n| dsul                                  | Region dummy: 1 if in the South, 0 otherwise.                                                              |\\n| dcentrooeste                          | Region dummy: 1 if in the Center‑West, 0 otherwise.                                                        |\\n\\nData Description:  \\nThe dataset is a municipality–election panel covering Brazilian mayoral contests from 1996 to 2012. It compiles official election returns for mayors and municipal councils from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), and merges these with municipal characteristics and public administration indicators from federal administrative records and surveys, including Tesouro Nacional’s FINBRA accounts and IBGE’s Perfil dos Municípios. Macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates (GDP, GDP per capita, revenues, expenditures) and regional identifiers are also included.\\n\\nVariables identify party participation and performance for the five most relevant parties in the study period (PP, PT, PMDB, DEM/PFL, PSDB), along with margins, coalition sizes, and whether parties ran or won in the previous or subsequent election (suffixes “lag1” and “for1”). The dataset also records incumbent status and whether the sitting mayor was term‑limited, basic characteristics of winners, and several indicators of municipal service provision in the following term (e.g., housing programs, social assistance spending, administrative employment growth, and the average share of spending on health, education, and social assistance). This structure allows analysts to track electoral dynamics and related municipal outcomes over successive election cycles across Brazil’s municipalities.\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"Unnamed: 0\": \"int64\",\n  \"iid\": \"int64\",\n  \"year\": \"int64\",\n  \"numpar_candidates_eff\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_n1\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_n2\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PP\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PT\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PMDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_DEM\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PSDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"winner_educ\": \"float64\",\n  \"winner_male\": \"float64\",\n  \"winner_age\": \"float64\",\n  \"ver_votesh_party_PP\": \"float64\",\n  \"ver_votesh_party_PT\": \"float64\",\n  \"ver_votesh_party_PMDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"ver_votesh_party_DEM\": \"float64\",\n  \"ver_votesh_party_PSDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"party_PT_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"party_DEM_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"mv_party_PP\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PT\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PMDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_DEM\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PSDB\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PPfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PTfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PMDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_DEMfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"votesh_party_PSDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PPfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PTfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PMDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_DEMfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_party_PSDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_runslag1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PT_runslag1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PT_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_runslag1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_DEM_runslag1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_DEM_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_runslag1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PT_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_DEM_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"inc_party_won\": \"int64\",\n  \"mv_incparty\": \"float64\",\n  \"mv_incpartyfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"inc_party_runsfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"inc_party_wonfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PP\": \"int64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PT\": \"int64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PMDB\": \"int64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_DEM\": \"int64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PSDB\": \"int64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PPfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PTfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PMDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_DEMfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"coal_size_party_PSDBfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"dlameduck_runs\": \"float64\",\n  \"dlameduck_party_PP_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"dlameduck_party_PT_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"dlameduck_party_PMDB_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"dlameduck_party_DEM_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"dlameduck_party_PSDB_runs\": \"int64\",\n  \"inc_party_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PP_wonlag1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PT_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PT_wonlag1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PMDB_wonlag1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_DEM_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_DEM_wonlag1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_wonfor1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"party_PSDB_wonlag1_b1\": \"float64\",\n  \"population\": \"float64\",\n  \"growth_func_admdir_totalfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"housing_programfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"housing_program_matfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"expmun_asoc_totfor1\": \"float64\",\n  \"nxt4yr_mn_des_sum2_shdestot\": \"float64\",\n  \"pib\": \"float64\",\n  \"pibpc\": \"float64\",\n  \"revenue_total\": \"float64\",\n  \"expend_total\": \"float64\",\n  \"dnorte\": \"int64\",\n  \"dnordeste\": \"int64\",\n  \"dsudeste\": \"int64\",\n  \"dsul\": \"int64\",\n  \"dcentrooeste\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nAmong Brazilian municipalities with extremely close mayoral elections, what is the average effect of the incumbent party narrowly winning the current election on the probability that the same party wins the next election, unconditional on running?","response":"submit_answer({\"answer\": \"Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.\", \"figure_refs\": [], \"caveats\": []})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_d5393d5d","text":"","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"baseline_answer","llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","figure_refs":[],"caveats":[]}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"4bd297bd5084cc47a87c7fed2b2685d5e8ff7f6621fd3014e9e33895d8d5e63c","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["455496bf3e8214c50afa49077933cc8a4d74c8e0335a3c76ff0b29173bf3c780"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"rules-1","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":1.6055828891694546}}
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