{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0060":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                      |\n|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| Unnamed: 0    | Row index carried over from the source file; sequential identifier with no substantive meaning.  |\n| voted10       | Count of recorded voters (aggregated by birthdate-day cohort) who cast a ballot in the 2010 general election. |\n| days_08       | Difference in days between an individual\u2019s birthdate and the 2008 election eligibility date (0 = eligibility date; negative = earlier birthdates, positive = later). |\n| voted08       | Count of recorded voters (aggregated by birthdate-day cohort) who cast a ballot in the 2008 general election. |\n\nData Description: \nThis dataset is derived from official statewide voter files obtained from multiple U.S. states and contains validated vote histories and birthdate information maintained by state election authorities. In the underlying study, the authors assembled data from 17 states (including Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) spanning elections from the early 1990s through 2012. To enable analysis, records were organized by exact birthdate and tallied into birthdate-day cohorts, producing counts of ballots cast in specified elections for each cohort.\n\nThe excerpted file here centers on the 2008 general election and includes: (a) counts of ballots cast in 2008 (voted08), (b) counts of ballots cast in 2010 (voted10), and (c) a timing variable (days_08) measuring how far each birthdate falls from the 2008 eligibility date. All measures come from administrative voter histories rather than surveys, offering analysts a compact view of participation patterns by birthdate-based cohorts around the 2008 election.","file_sha256":"d7a5665e9e88e54554760b6b2528beeb8d3cfc5ffa3e506e5d8dd8530b49e613","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the average causal effect of casting a ballot in 2008 on the probability of voting in 2010 for individuals at the margin of voting in 2008?","question_sha256":"73193d179c5dcdfd83bbe1d3b0b3aaaec8ad5fe2ffba45c4f120d95ff6dc7591","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","task_sha256":"978db7c56504f83324154a1274f0b284faf15a92d199d9ff23506d1231382360","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.817366Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_422e0b0c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["1acaab8153d6713e9407d560b8b55274907062cf236b0c4885a6bd452fa7aef2"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"43e7994c6c4426d96f0caa4fd8279adce2f90ef524be7717be3ae26327fd7fa5","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.817366Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_ac7c824c","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":2,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820713Z","turn_id":"call_422e0b0c","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820837Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820837Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":[0.03560548936676071,0.09636059204610743],"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.03560548936676071,0.09636059204610743],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":5,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820837Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.06598304070643407,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q092.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.549875068350682e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820837Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.01549875068350682,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q092.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.549875068350682e-08,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:09:59.820837Z"}
