{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0073":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                             |\n|---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| Unnamed: 0    | Row identifier carried over from the source file (sequential index).                                    |\n| dv            | Party\u2019s general-election two-party vote share in the district-year (0\u20131 scale).                         |\n| rv            | Extremist primary candidate\u2019s vote-share margin among the top-two primary candidates (share \u2212 0.5); negative values indicate the extremist narrowly lost the primary, positive values indicate a narrow win. |\n| dv_win        | Indicator for whether the party won the subsequent general election (1 = win, 0 = loss).                |\n\nData Description:  \nThis dataset is built from U.S. House elections between 1980 and 2010 and links close primary contests to subsequent general-election performance at the district level. The sample focuses on contested primaries featuring two viable candidates for whom ideological positions could be estimated using patterns of primary-election campaign receipts. Election results were compiled from election-return records, with general-election outcomes recorded as vote share and win/loss indicators.\n\nEach row reflects a district\u2013party\u2013year observation in which an ideologically \u201cextreme\u201d primary candidate (defined relative to their primary opponent using contribution-based ideology scores) is identified, along with that candidate\u2019s primary margin (centered at 0.5) and the party\u2019s subsequent general-election performance. The data provide concise measures needed to examine how primary nomination contexts relate to general-election results, using standardized constructs such as two-party vote share, a binary win indicator, and a centered primary vote margin for the candidate classified as extreme.\n","file_sha256":"cc8fd9c994a1f10515841b742e28d4298e17851dd1fe2104c8b8c64098389891","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among districts at the margin where a more extreme candidate just wins versus just loses the primary, what is the average causal effect of nominating the extremist (versus a relatively moderate candidate) on the party's probability of winning the subsequent general election?","question_sha256":"7bfaad9e2f801fd04a34a9fdc128ee92a3b7137c9ee3975b7f778bf83b246c83","run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q108","task_sha256":"99f9c1bd3698b7e5c5c4f1d2e5a55b0d1c2299ab6d7b9de32253596ff9218780","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:00.141415Z"}
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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q108","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:00.143712Z"}
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