{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0060":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                      |\n|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| Unnamed: 0    | Row index carried over from the source file; sequential identifier with no substantive meaning.  |\n| voted10       | Count of recorded voters (aggregated by birthdate-day cohort) who cast a ballot in the 2010 general election. |\n| days_08       | Difference in days between an individual\u2019s birthdate and the 2008 election eligibility date (0 = eligibility date; negative = earlier birthdates, positive = later). |\n| voted08       | Count of recorded voters (aggregated by birthdate-day cohort) who cast a ballot in the 2008 general election. |\n\nData Description: \nThis dataset is derived from official statewide voter files obtained from multiple U.S. states and contains validated vote histories and birthdate information maintained by state election authorities. In the underlying study, the authors assembled data from 17 states (including Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) spanning elections from the early 1990s through 2012. To enable analysis, records were organized by exact birthdate and tallied into birthdate-day cohorts, producing counts of ballots cast in specified elections for each cohort.\n\nThe excerpted file here centers on the 2008 general election and includes: (a) counts of ballots cast in 2008 (voted08), (b) counts of ballots cast in 2010 (voted10), and (c) a timing variable (days_08) measuring how far each birthdate falls from the 2008 eligibility date. All measures come from administrative voter histories rather than surveys, offering analysts a compact view of participation patterns by birthdate-based cohorts around the 2008 election.","file_sha256":"d7a5665e9e88e54554760b6b2528beeb8d3cfc5ffa3e506e5d8dd8530b49e613","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the average causal effect of casting a ballot in 2008 on the probability of voting in 2010 for individuals at the margin of voting in 2008?","question_sha256":"73193d179c5dcdfd83bbe1d3b0b3aaaec8ad5fe2ffba45c4f120d95ff6dc7591","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","task_sha256":"978db7c56504f83324154a1274f0b284faf15a92d199d9ff23506d1231382360","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.032031Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_1c42f0ab","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["1acaab8153d6713e9407d560b8b55274907062cf236b0c4885a6bd452fa7aef2"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"43e7994c6c4426d96f0caa4fd8279adce2f90ef524be7717be3ae26327fd7fa5","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0060","x":["voted08"],"y":"voted10"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.032031Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0060","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["voted08"],"y":"voted10"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_566f4a14","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0060":"4352feaf8ce9a116861f401fce3f498f5342011543c5dda995c4ba58c1baf38c"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":17.34283287078142,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"853678fe42b5d6aafe9220d51348096be446e5cf611ca5dfd200f87900cc49b3","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"fe17664d635e1f2942cdd8f39af08198fe9b7a344423838ab11eeea83ba4da50","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_566f4a14","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":140659},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.791870634306593},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":140657},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.4082869106541653,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.4044684521156045,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.4063776813848849,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":140659.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de voted08 na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de voted10.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.0009741060832098139,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":9.488826613463649e-07}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.4063776813848849},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9599808503291505},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.0009741060832098139}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 140657 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.voted08","label":"Coefficient on voted08 in the regression of voted10","se":0.0009741060832098139,"unit":"","value":0.4063776813848849}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":6.8359259807358885,"ci_low":6.626945635710454,"coef":6.731435808223171,"p":0.0,"se":0.05331183337590742,"t":126.2653220113272,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.4082869106541653,"ci_low":0.4044684521156045,"coef":0.4063776813848849,"p":0.0,"se":0.0009741060832098139,"t":417.18010839827053,"term":"voted08"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"dd1dd53d0f9dfb25601fddb132b401586df2685c9a39395d9d24444fe94912d0","result_sha256":"a65f56720628f55c6e763e92b3ed68ccf040aee655db8ffe1355b9809c4629a6","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.044919Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_1c42f0ab"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.voted08 = 0,4064.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_566f4a14","ci_high":0.4082869106541653,"ci_low":0.4044684521156045,"formatted":0.4063776813848849,"key":"coef.voted08","ref":"call_566f4a14:coef.voted08","se":0.0009741060832098139,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.4063776813848849},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_566f4a14:coef.voted08"],"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q092","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.064198Z"}
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