{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0061":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                         |\n|---------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| voted         | Indicator (1/0) that the parent cast a ballot in the election, based on validated official records. |\n| days          | Child\u2019s age relative to the 18-year voting-eligibility cutoff, measured in days (0 = cutoff day; negative = before; positive = after). |\n\nData Description: \nThis dataset is derived from Danish administrative registers linked to validated election-day records and focuses on families in which a child was near the age of enfranchisement. Each observation corresponds to a parent, with a binary indicator of whether that parent voted in a specific Danish election and a continuous measure capturing the child\u2019s age in days relative to the legal voting-age threshold (18 years) on election day. The \u201cdays\u201d variable is centered so that zero denotes that the child\u2019s eligibility date coincided with election day, negative values indicate the child was not yet of age, and positive values indicate the child had passed the threshold.\n\nDenmark\u2019s civil registration system enables accurate linkage of de-identified parent\u2013child pairs using exact birthdates and addresses, while municipalities\u2019 official polling lists provide validated turnout. For the election covered here, turnout data were obtained from participating municipalities and merged to the register-based parent\u2013child file. The resulting analytic file allows analysts to study how parental voting coincides with a child\u2019s timing of entry into the electorate in a high-quality administrative context.","file_sha256":"3e35fc11d349b3fd5f0a95c65b97945cfb86daeebac707a0af93450db504765f","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among parents whose child's age is arbitrarily close to the voting-age threshold, what is the average effect of the child being just eligible to vote on the parent's probability of voting in 2009?","question_sha256":"feeb1362f5e189ecbc0a8218cb3afddf155d2c6cc9de965df2f2043115e5e1f9","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q093","task_sha256":"4c0efcf5bf94ef631af9dda7749757b588dfe11e89e63c43c9a18fb9044c5025","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.041893Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_b0b94255","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["07719eae1375c2d1ce52b0b7d20e947447e6e40a826330d25308df263765a0e2"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"a8f7f18aef46339acd95f950b71dff7d1ef55ebdd85876ef730a1f8619a76b35","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0061","x":["days"],"y":"voted"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q093","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.041893Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0061","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["days"],"y":"voted"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_25927f94","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0061":"202040073773ad7f2a95dc5393c0294791be792dd489a42165d5955e8ba801b5"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":8.8903340511024,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"cc1c74834f923caff1cb2a9aa8d4993eb3e2778c5e6a776f43dde45130939f8a","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"dde24a0f414b700fd4526ebe06aeee3e73dd02af9289e3de9d4a9d4258fd7faf","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_25927f94","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":64685},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.0006667585585791169},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":64683},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.00014207258904798972,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":7.696460709671627e-05,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.000109518598072353,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":64685.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de days na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de voted.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":1.66091734715892e-05,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":2.7586464340934247e-10}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.000109518598072353},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9600006605579685},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":1.66091734715892e-05}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 64683 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.days","label":"Coefficient on days in the regression of voted","se":1.66091734715892e-05,"unit":"","value":0.000109518598072353}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.7089194930301509,"ci_low":0.7018959149065102,"coef":0.7054077039683305,"p":0.0,"se":0.0017917285093264493,"t":393.70233843826543,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.00014207258904798972,"ci_low":7.696460709671627e-05,"coef":0.000109518598072353,"p":4.3181477448166093e-11,"se":1.66091734715892e-05,"t":6.59386201605335,"term":"days"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"d953d6692a4f6cbfc2e1d92d3d9cbc3650da08b0c8cff04a05ddfa1d9b44c0c7","result_sha256":"b03552c49e87732a283c9b3c4d6bec41c876c7d91846367339200086a761cefe","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q093","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.044630Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_b0b94255"}
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