{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0070":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name  | Description                                                                                                                              |\n|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| Unnamed: 0     | -                                                                                                                                        |\n| dem_lhpct_chng | Change in the Democratic share of seats in the state lower house between the prior gubernatorial election year and the subsequent midterm election (percentage points, two\u2011party share). |\n| D_1            | Democratic gubernatorial vote margin from 50 percent in the previous gubernatorial election (percentage points; positive if the Democrat won, negative if the Republican won).       |\n\nData Description: \nThis file is a pared\u2011down extract constructed to study midterm seat swings in U.S. state lower\u2011house elections following gubernatorial contests. Each row corresponds to a state midterm legislative election year, and variables record (a) how the Democratic two\u2011party seat share changed from the last cycle and (b) the Democratic win/lose margin in the immediately preceding gubernatorial election. The coverage used in the original study spans 1882\u20132010, focusing on lower chambers because most upper chambers are staggered and often small. Cases with nonpartisan legislatures or strong third\u2011party dominance were excluded, and the analysis centers on years when the governor was not on the ballot but the lower house was.\n\nThe data were assembled from historical administrative sources: state legislative seat counts from Dubin (2007) with recent updates from the National Conference of State Legislatures, and gubernatorial election returns from ICPSR compilations and state election officials. The extract you have contains just the variables required to reproduce the core state\u2011level midterm seat\u2011change analysis.","file_sha256":"01092928e739dab8806446231e17fda1cdda1ae702086f7a5eb1dc65e69b17d0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_window":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"01092928e739dab8806446231e17fda1cdda1ae702086f7a5eb1dc65e69b17d0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["dem_lhpct_chng","D_1"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["dem_lhpct_chng","D_1"]},"op":"dropna"},{"args":{"query":"D_1 >= -3 and D_1 <= 3"},"op":"filter"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among gubernatorial elections decided by very small margins, what is the causal effect of a Democratic (vs. Republican) gubernatorial victory on the subsequent midterm change in the Democratic share of lower-house seats?","question_sha256":"7db511a87e210c473ca80f115b4348a7a9eec6f30bb16685293e829f0acce52a","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q104","task_sha256":"e17b53fddb91b1429a0d2c01c1785bc284520c4b1df3129cfa2697cd9a8c2f6e","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.363585Z"}
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