{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0071":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                                    |\n|---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| dv_money      | Democratic Party\u2019s share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle for a district (percent of combined Democratic and Republican receipts, t+1). |\n| rv            | Democratic two-party vote-share margin in the prior general election for the same district (Democratic share minus 50, in percentage points; negative values indicate a Democratic loss). |\n\nData Description: \nThis file is a pared-down analysis dataset derived from a larger compilation used to study fundraising patterns in U.S. House elections. Each row corresponds to a congressional district\u2013election pair, combining prior election returns with fundraising in the next cycle. The contributions measure aggregates itemized receipts reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by House candidates, summing donations from individuals and political action committees; party committee transfers and candidate self-financing are excluded, and the Democratic share is computed relative to the combined Democratic and Republican totals in that district-cycle. Election returns provide the two-party vote shares from the preceding general election, recorded as the Democratic margin over 50 percent.\n\nThe broader study covers U.S. House contests primarily from 1980\u20132006 and focuses on districts with standard two-party competition. Observations in which a third-party candidate placed first or second are removed, and district-years affected by redistricting between elections are omitted to maintain comparability across cycles. Values are recorded in percentage points, with the contribution share referring to the subsequent cycle and the vote-share margin referring to the prior contest.","file_sha256":"1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"ref_rd":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"1a1e60f54978b33a6b01f7f8f66e075bbceefd4c9d0ea297c31f8521eccb53e0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"columns":["dv_money","rv"]},"op":"select"},{"args":{"columns":["dv_money","rv"]},"op":"dropna"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the average effect, at very close U.S. House races, of a Democratic victory on the Democratic Party's share of all campaign contributions received in the subsequent election cycle in that district?","question_sha256":"152079f0a108118fdfdaf82d2c90fda8a0d628951845e0b5499ef701f63810ad","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q105","task_sha256":"ac4b84f803893eff65495362439bdd28b945452b058a1f6ae23afab4b3c65c81","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.383254Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e62f2d51","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["2f6e6df78211076fb3d7b6a039841deba812c79a1ec45903b6068348faf0b3b1"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d14becdbd6ab8bd6918ec9d9012fdd2e35b4d54a1b0a525c14f8cb5d5dfc89be","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0071","x":["rv"],"y":"dv_money"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.383254Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0071","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["rv"],"y":"dv_money"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_c6373b27","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0071":"dccb508a867132c28ec2596bef0a5a2630e67574773fe886db35c854253cc20e"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.1025000605732203,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"db4b18fda8325ba27f836e6c5085655bc51f9fa1f2c60770d64ef1f3f21c2f2f","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"05c95407b4d3eabd42a839a0663b1ab826839c95c56a2dcf0ff958fc218bb87c","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_c6373b27","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":4326},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.6099892454280652},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":4324},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":1.3241088927173286,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.2581126676592296,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":1.291110780188279,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":4326.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de rv na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de dv_money.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.016831368368637623,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0002832949611607751}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":1.291110780188279},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.960512764401011},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.016831368368637623}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 4324 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.rv","label":"Coefficient on rv in the regression of dv_money","se":0.016831368368637623,"unit":"","value":1.291110780188279}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":51.232099259971406,"ci_low":49.743624420667885,"coef":50.487861840319646,"p":0.0,"se":0.37961365677674935,"t":132.9980124240144,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":1.3241088927173286,"ci_low":1.2581126676592296,"coef":1.291110780188279,"p":0.0,"se":0.016831368368637623,"t":76.7086045478063,"term":"rv"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["2207 rows were dropped because one of 'dv_money', 'rv' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"bf40a45281cdfcc2550b4bc0fe08334d6f97504c655153a7cc21d83ccbe04f03","result_sha256":"7e05592c59bc2f6c5b918a7460ad1daa546346d58478205f46029c4101d4349b","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.385702Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_e62f2d51"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.rv = 1,291.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_c6373b27","ci_high":1.3241088927173286,"ci_low":1.2581126676592296,"formatted":1.291110780188279,"key":"coef.rv","ref":"call_c6373b27:coef.rv","se":0.016831368368637623,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":1.291110780188279},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_c6373b27:coef.rv"],"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.389517Z"}
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