{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0081":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| Unnamed: 0 | Row index from the source CSV export. |\n| petpooled | Indicator (0/1) for whether the House member signed any of the pro\u2013civil-rights discharge petition(s) included in this file for the 73rd Congress (Congress years 1933\u20131934). Coded 1 if the member signed at least one such petition; 0 otherwise. |\n| Dvotespercent | Democratic candidate\u2019s two-party vote share in the immediately preceding U.S. House election for the seat (for the 73rd Congress, the 1932 House election). Stored as a proportion on \\[0, 1\\]. |\n| icpsr | ICPSR numeric identifier for the U.S. House member. |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis file is a member-level dataset constructed for the study of U.S. House civil-rights politics in the mid-20th century. It focuses on signatures on pro\u2013civil-rights discharge petitions, an agenda-setting mechanism used to bring stalled bills to the floor. Each row represents a U.S. House member serving in the **73rd Congress (1933\u20131934)**, indicating whether the member signed the relevant pro\u2013civil-rights discharge petition(s) covered by this file, along with linked electoral information from the prior House election and a standardized legislator identifier.\n\nPetition signatory data were transcribed from original House discharge petitions housed at the National Archives and compiled in prior research, then merged to district-level election returns (two-party vote shares; for this Congress, from the 1932 election) and legislator identifiers (ICPSR). The broader project from which this file is drawn assembles multiple indicators of members\u2019 civil-rights-related legislative activity (including discharge petition signatures, floor speeches, and bill sponsorship) across many Congresses spanning 1933 to 1972; this particular file provides the 73rd-Congress member-level signature indicator and associated electoral context.\n","file_sha256":"5cdda493e5f58e4d5a9d7b4860a280b80a5a99faa2a933480b7d304e9dd7dc6e","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among districts with elections decided around the 50% Democratic vote-share threshold, what is the effect of electing a Democrat (versus a Republican) on the representative's likelihood of signing civil-rights discharge petitions in the 73rd Congress?","question_sha256":"bad784c2a1f5ac90af41cb9ff9939758c050984e6a9de479bcf528d64d7e4b89","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","task_sha256":"621a1f4aa828d3dc1cb28d337e1cabc424c6ce3809de4b6bacf3ddf737b6cf67","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.670302Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_8d45a34f","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["16fea7e3da94fe5f363fa5b123fbf96a2bb866f1bafaf2affabb34bea2b9ef55"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"4de652566c0538f958813044165b743e9740ef69abbae175a63f48f7b6818b9a","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0081","x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.670302Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0081","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_fbd756e6","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0081":"47ba1f4aee9818b9fc74de07acd75130a813004d3a1333f72fa83e5b9e52156e"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.2015830036252737,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"7947087ccdb4347b43ec03645f02f20551b9a4358487e3dd363c1e94e0d69376","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"47c9c0660be2a87b6f3501fbba46c7bb920b543044fb6848f8c0262bc6929987","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_fbd756e6","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":266},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.05405879151645754},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":264},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-0.43897151797462497,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-1.561532823912395,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-1.00025217094351,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":266.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de Dvotespercent na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de petpooled.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.2850601127045052,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0812592678551052}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-1.00025217094351},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9689904969297174},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.2850601127045052}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 264 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","label":"Coefficient on Dvotespercent in the regression of petpooled","se":0.2850601127045052,"unit":"","value":-1.00025217094351}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":1.2802734091625907,"ci_low":0.667792773543115,"coef":0.9740330913528529,"p":1.5279907595858188e-09,"se":0.1555316383127618,"t":6.262604200144472,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-0.43897151797462497,"ci_low":-1.561532823912395,"coef":-1.00025217094351,"p":0.0005287833887452628,"se":0.2850601127045052,"t":-3.50891663324492,"term":"Dvotespercent"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["41 rows were dropped because one of 'petpooled', 'Dvotespercent' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"d00a483c6a72fa51e9abd6babc06b70f30409d0a28b4d7db48fed8bf86c835db","result_sha256":"f2666de70c0c121b0e4f18a079f27d4ca1b013f5542a6d9cd421444eafdd0b2a","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.672808Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_8d45a34f"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_6884a56e","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["16fea7e3da94fe5f363fa5b123fbf96a2bb866f1bafaf2affabb34bea2b9ef55","808a2fb8de2808a1a417acfc23a244e634969f06e2b7824905127693f6c0fb51","1c8dc2613959564b3ec40d3ccb8187a4504ec2b78496aae34b9dac624448d7e2"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"4de652566c0538f958813044165b743e9740ef69abbae175a63f48f7b6818b9a","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.Dvotespercent = -1,000.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_fbd756e6:coef.Dvotespercent"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.675180Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_e9e39e1a","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["-1,000"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.676812Z","turn_id":"call_6884a56e","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.Dvotespercent = -1,000.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_fbd756e6","ci_high":-0.43897151797462497,"ci_low":-1.561532823912395,"formatted":-1.00025217094351,"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","ref":"call_fbd756e6:coef.Dvotespercent","se":0.2850601127045052,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":-1.00025217094351},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_fbd756e6:coef.Dvotespercent"],"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.677018Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.677018Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"-1.000252171 in [-0.7785057898, 0.2248034813]?","expected":[-0.7785057898361308,0.2248034812672456],"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-1.00025217094351,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[-0.7785057898361308,0.2248034812672456],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_fbd756e6","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.677018Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"-1.000252171 vs -0.2768511542844426","expected":-0.2768511542844426,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-1.00025217094351,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q116.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.5594624262841235e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_fbd756e6","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":8,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.677018Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"0.2850601127 vs 0.25594624262841237","expected":0.25594624262841237,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.2850601127045052,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q116.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":2.5594624262841235e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_fbd756e6","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.677018Z"}