{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0082":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| (unnamed) | Row index carried over from the CSV export; not a substantive variable. |\n| petpooled | Indicator equal to 1 if the House member signed at least one civil-rights\u2013related discharge petition during the **78th Congress (1943\u20131944)**; 0 otherwise. |\n| Dvotespercent | Democratic candidate\u2019s share of the **two-party vote** in the general election immediately preceding service in the 78th Congress (i.e., the **1942** U.S. House election for the district/seat), coded as a proportion from 0 to 1 (e.g., 0.50 = 50%). |\n| icpsr | ICPSR numeric identifier for the member of the U.S. House of Representatives. |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis file contains member-level records from the U.S. House of Representatives for the **78th Congress (1943\u20131944)**. Each observation corresponds to a single House member/district in that Congress and includes (i) whether the member signed any civil-rights\u2013related discharge petition(s) during the Congress, (ii) the district\u2019s Democratic two-party vote share in the immediately preceding House election (1942), and (iii) a stable legislator identifier. Because this extract includes only one Congress, there is **no separate Congress/session/year column** in the file.\n\nThe data were assembled by combining archival records of discharge petition signatures (from National Archives holdings on House discharge petitions), historical U.S. House election returns (two-party vote shares by district), and ICPSR legislator identification codes. The broader underlying project described in the accompanying documentation spans multiple Congresses across the mid-20th century (1933\u20131976) and compiles repeated measures of legislative activity and election results; this benchmark CSV is a single-Congress subset for 1943\u201344.\n","file_sha256":"b3af3d8d86f85721c10f0046184627dc0c3982250018ee826277a302ca85839f","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among U.S. House districts with very close elections around the 50% Democratic vote threshold in the 78th Congress, what is the causal effect of electing a Democrat (versus a Republican) on the probability that the representative signs a civil-rights discharge petition?","question_sha256":"9754c270d0b2a8ff4179009cf44b39496257097d5e0db8123e3e34f44c734270","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q117","task_sha256":"ae4d96724763f37af28f83a7610056176f96abc3086d8b7a69542875500decab","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.686236Z"}
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{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0082","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_be7020ee","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0082":"39e2e6852e5940b1797b82277695a8528505fea6358f41a9d0302e5be403f512"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.5904581416398287,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"361b3e42e075485c5d328bdfb49441a7b6713c94929a720f7e81822c4b14063e","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"ca93878c190439ad10657f5ffca52d55cdb4c4274c70c21229de8367444c1f9b","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_be7020ee","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":831},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.06628114350597902},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":829},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":1.1159923077359055,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.6339148213696816,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.8749535645527936,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":831.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de Dvotespercent na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de petpooled.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.12280165872525636,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.015080247385674332}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.8749535645527936},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9628297018559577},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.12280165872525636}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 829 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","label":"Coefficient on Dvotespercent in the regression of petpooled","se":0.12280165872525636,"unit":"","value":0.8749535645527936}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.06427953593893093,"ci_low":-0.16118291935075071,"coef":-0.04845169170590989,"p":0.3991246378963572,"se":0.05743301496724223,"t":-0.843620898773032,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":1.1159923077359055,"ci_low":0.6339148213696816,"coef":0.8749535645527936,"p":2.263155641877603e-12,"se":0.12280165872525636,"t":7.124932787026302,"term":"Dvotespercent"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["84 rows were dropped because one of 'petpooled', 'Dvotespercent' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"2d26ae01137e657c6b760db982e57a9b6a456b856b3678627524770d6c6976e6","result_sha256":"33fee8d1a0c5c6e09bbd8cf2dc6cb2870365ae93ed964f5839dbc3f70f369204","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q117","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.688919Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_03a914c2"}
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