{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0083":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description                                                                                   |\n|---------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| petpooled     | Indicator equal to 1 if the member signed at least one pro\u2013civil rights discharge petition in the specified Congress; 0 otherwise. |\n| Dvotespercent | Democratic candidate\u2019s two\u2011party vote share in the district in the most recent U.S. House election before the Congress (0\u20131).      |\n| icpsr         | ICPSR legislator identification code for the U.S. House member.                                |\n\nData Description: \nThis dataset links individual U.S. House members to their participation in civil rights discharge petitions during a specific Congress. The underlying historical collection spans 1933\u20131972. The core variable captures whether a member signed any of the pro\u2013civil rights discharge petitions filed in that Congress, merged with district electoral information from the preceding House election and a stable legislator identifier.\n\nDischarge petition signatures were transcribed from archival petition sheets housed at the National Archives, while district vote shares were drawn from compiled U.S. House election returns (ICPSR archives). Legislator identifiers come from ICPSR coding. The file corresponds to observations of House members (ICPSR-coded) and, consistent with the study\u2019s focus, covers non\u2011Southern districts as defined in the paper. The \u201cpetpooled\u201d measure pools signatures across all relevant pro\u2013civil rights discharge petitions filed within the Congress represented in the file.\n","file_sha256":"d24cd40c82c62b3418b80bcf67b8a4dd44b0282a0676b16bff2ef0aa9245b07d","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Among U.S. House races decided near the 50% threshold prior to the 83rd Congress, what is the effect of electing a Democrat (versus a Republican) on the representative's likelihood of supporting civil-rights discharge petitions during the 83rd Congress?","question_sha256":"e4c738a3b5da5e97e53adda04b7836793baad2af10ebd009842bbe97be35187c","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","task_sha256":"b1790130781204a4dcc8e7b6fc1bb144cf3b2345672c3f95a8f3ce3e954d4b14","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.703534Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_1ac1a1bb","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["753920a4a96bf3d4fe486395f90dda6adc6b2a7a2b8fdf384106d22c6b34bc8e"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"116378cd82e73484bfda7908b2df37d1abaf7b27120e0ca4c339899d6f3be757","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0083","x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.703534Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0083","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_bea54b2a","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0083":"0282318219984e89c4c5f921ae12513bc9871deb30b9ef38449c39f8bd18f9f6"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":11.479665990918875,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"9fd06c2a44e2bd1b6c542910ae75473f8da46325b35fdc3031b183dc1eb5d6d4","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"503dcce9b6744f12678a1bf891f7f46ca8af6d0d1493f4dd9fff9e818d74b6d3","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_bea54b2a","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":576},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.26377775050523045},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":574},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":1.8717636630112633,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.339937898539091,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":1.6058507807751772,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":576.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de Dvotespercent na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de petpooled.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.13538625606868893,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.01832943833229661}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":1.6058507807751772},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9641054414059111},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.13538625606868893}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 574 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","label":"Coefficient on Dvotespercent in the regression of petpooled","se":0.13538625606868893,"unit":"","value":1.6058507807751772}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":-0.3938112515319164,"ci_low":-0.6182052735414054,"coef":-0.5060082625366609,"p":1.0149778934830634e-17,"se":0.057123720875409636,"t":-8.85811104007556,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":1.8717636630112633,"ci_low":1.339937898539091,"coef":1.6058507807751772,"p":3.533821589022089e-29,"se":0.13538625606868893,"t":11.861254069692572,"term":"Dvotespercent"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["52 rows were dropped because one of 'petpooled', 'Dvotespercent' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"4f03dca746d6db82b0704590b3aa24f7b84f7a788ddc25d57de91fc799521acb","result_sha256":"71628c4e1f09e84391e95c627ab2f5051476d58f693212f33cb05658f4cb4743","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.706155Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_1ac1a1bb"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_9e0eec8c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["753920a4a96bf3d4fe486395f90dda6adc6b2a7a2b8fdf384106d22c6b34bc8e","00a7df2f82f9d60794039b6a1feef83291fe12b4dd17bec57a6c60ebef815907","1e87294edfb2b3d08c8ace648efb5221ee2fc49dcc2952c29279550d42cd835d"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"116378cd82e73484bfda7908b2df37d1abaf7b27120e0ca4c339899d6f3be757","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.Dvotespercent = 1,606.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_bea54b2a:coef.Dvotespercent"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":3,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.717782Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_0dc1b84d","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["1,606"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":4,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719365Z","turn_id":"call_9e0eec8c","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.Dvotespercent = 1,606.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_bea54b2a","ci_high":1.8717636630112633,"ci_low":1.339937898539091,"formatted":1.6058507807751772,"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","ref":"call_bea54b2a:coef.Dvotespercent","se":0.13538625606868893,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":1.6058507807751772},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_bea54b2a:coef.Dvotespercent"],"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719555Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":6,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719555Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"1.605850781 in [0.2266263602, 0.7306884805]?","expected":[0.22662636020803378,0.7306884804562361],"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":1.6058507807751772,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":[0.22662636020803378,0.7306884804562361],"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":"interval"},"trace_call_id":"call_bea54b2a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":7,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719555Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"1.605850781 vs 0.478657420332135","expected":0.478657420332135,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":1.6058507807751772,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q118.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.2858727557352104e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_bea54b2a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":8,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719555Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"0.1353862561 vs 0.12858727557352104","expected":0.12858727557352104,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.13538625606868893,"passed":false,"required":false,"source_id":"crb_papers.q118.gold","tolerance":{"abs_tol":1.2858727557352104e-07,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":1e-06,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_bea54b2a","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":9,"task_id":"crb_papers.q118","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.719555Z"}