{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"ds_0084":{"description_shown":"| Variable Name | Description |\n| --- | --- |\n| Unnamed: 0 | Row index from the source CSV; not a substantive data field. |\n| petpooled | Outcome indicator for the **88th U.S. Congress (1963\u20131964)**: equals 1 if the House member signed **at least one** pro\u2013civil-rights discharge petition during the 88th Congress (as coded from archival discharge-petition signature records); 0 otherwise. |\n| Dvotespercent | Democratic candidate\u2019s share of the **two-party** vote in the member\u2019s U.S. House district in the **immediately preceding House general election** (Democratic votes \u00f7 (Democratic + Republican votes)); recorded on a 0\u20131 scale (e.g., 0.50 = 50%). For the 88th Congress, this corresponds to the election held just before the 1963\u20131964 term. |\n| icpsr | ICPSR numeric identifier for the legislator (member-level ID used to link to other historical congressional datasets). |\n\nDataset Context:\nThis file is a member-level snapshot drawn from a larger project on congressional civil rights politics in the mid\u2011twentieth century. **This particular extract contains one record per U.S. House member serving in the 88th Congress (1963\u20131964) only**; accordingly, there is no separate \u201cCongress\u201d/session identifier column in this file. The included fields capture (i) whether the member signed any pro\u2013civil-rights discharge petition during the 88th Congress, (ii) the district\u2019s Democratic two\u2011party vote share from the immediately prior House election, and (iii) the member\u2019s ICPSR identifier.\n\nThe underlying study assembled archival evidence on discharge petition signatures from the National Archives (covering 1933\u20131976) and linked those signatures to legislators. Election returns were matched using standard historical House election datasets, and member identifiers come from ICPSR. The broader research situates these data within an effort to trace how members advanced civil rights outside of roll\u2011call votes\u2014particularly through discharge petitions that could bring bills to the floor despite committee gatekeeping\u2014providing insight into party coalitions and legislative activity during 1933\u20131972.\n","file_sha256":"1957f1d9ad54c70564313ef23af30a8bdcec0443bc6e9ded12db6b4d8d24c9ea","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the average effect, at the 50% two-party vote threshold, of a Democrat narrowly winning a House seat on that representative's probability of signing a civil-rights discharge petition in the 88th Congress?","question_sha256":"66995c88386d61401ea05cd9ba709724aa1b4d1ec557d6cb9e1475859e32f604","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"crb_papers.q119","task_sha256":"5eeb46d011b9bd614351ca7ee4b45fbb7151156507e772a3e91c7e711cb0fa55","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.730522Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_0b34ace9","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["c587ce91f4ae9c28e363fc161ab0f86b13037d64786bba9b05879937d6e8532c"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"92e8bdcc044aec1f7595e44ed2450f8dea35b3324ad6a1f81ccbe3fd2873136a","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"ds_0084","x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":1,"task_id":"crb_papers.q119","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.730522Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"ds_0084","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["Dvotespercent"],"y":"petpooled"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_9ec85880","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"ds_0084":"5aeb031ddaf2fede78265be6f0fa1adffd5ff0557ac97464854bab4bac361bf4"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.5631659664213657,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"f9edbc666c54c257f966b97deaf284731bc3a5df5d4e4436da25adf42b7f67d7","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"de7bafbb59925e6b14fa879b9313f5e537e7064c14450c7fe3de52a8c936c65c","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_9ec85880","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":303},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.35377698421228865},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":301},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":2.4108374399854147,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.7813483316483123,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":2.0960928858168635,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":303.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de Dvotespercent na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de petpooled.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.15994121031715117,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.025581190757715182}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":2.0960928858168635},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9678765312856952},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.15994121031715117}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 301 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.Dvotespercent","label":"Coefficient on Dvotespercent in the regression of petpooled","se":0.15994121031715117,"unit":"","value":2.0960928858168635}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":-0.4008228984843071,"ci_low":-0.7432595792784554,"coef":-0.5720412388813813,"p":2.1506608262862913e-10,"se":0.08700664786383226,"t":-6.574684267535983,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":2.4108374399854147,"ci_low":1.7813483316483123,"coef":2.0960928858168635,"p":2.3534382579330522e-31,"se":0.15994121031715117,"t":13.105395924292882,"term":"Dvotespercent"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["12 rows were dropped because one of 'petpooled', 'Dvotespercent' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"d9b71dd3827ba5f2470f816559681318f200ea63843ede4e6dc9b09d9749673e","result_sha256":"51ad4f1a08738c91e58c167602d3e02993a3c044b7fb78a3d6766d682e4e138a","run_id":"20261015T171027Z-suite-crb_papers-naive-54c3f2","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"crb_papers.q119","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:10:30.733401Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_0b34ace9"}
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