{"call_id":"call_8b762b0f","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d/causcibench_real.q010/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:10:59.963700Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"lee_randomized_experiments\",\n \"rows\": 6559,\n \"description\": \"This dataset includes information on U.S. House of Representatives elections from 1946 to 1998. Most of the data come from the Historical Election Returns compiled by the ICPSR, with results from 1992 to 1998 obtained from the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Missing values were imputed using average electoral outcomes by state and year or by state and decade. The dataset includes both vote share data and candidate characteristics.\\n\\nVariable Information:\\ndemsharenext: Democratic vote share in the next election\\ndemshareprev: Democratic vote share in the previous election\\ndemwinprev: 1 if Democrats held the seat in the previous election, 0 otherwise\\ndifdemshare: Difference in vote share between the Democratic and Republican candidates\\ndifdemshare2 to difdemshare4: Squared, cubed, and fourth-power of the vote share difference\\nrdifdemshare to rdifdemshare4: Transformed vote share differences for observations above a set threshold\\ndemofficeexp: Political experience of the Democratic candidate\\nothelectexp: Electoral experience of the opposing candidate\\nuse: 1 if the observation is included in the analysis, 0 otherwise\\nright: 1 if the Democratic candidate's vote share is above the threshold, 0 otherwise\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"Unnamed: 0\": \"int64\",\n  \"statedisdec\": \"int64\",\n  \"demsharenext\": \"float64\",\n  \"demshareprev\": \"float64\",\n  \"use\": \"float64\",\n  \"demwinprev\": \"float64\",\n  \"difdemshare\": \"float64\",\n  \"difdemshare2\": \"float64\",\n  \"difdemshare3\": \"float64\",\n  \"difdemshare4\": \"float64\",\n  \"demofficeexp\": \"float64\",\n  \"demelectexp\": \"float64\",\n  \"othofficeexp\": \"float64\",\n  \"othelectexp\": \"float64\",\n  \"right\": \"float64\",\n  \"rdifdemshare\": \"float64\",\n  \"rdifdemshare2\": \"float64\",\n  \"rdifdemshare3\": \"float64\",\n  \"rdifdemshare4\": \"float64\",\n  \"difdemsharenext\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nDoes winning an election in a given period influence the party's subsequent electoral success?","response":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd\ninfer__ols({\"dataset\": \"lee_randomized_experiments\", \"y\": \"demsharenext\", \"x\": [\"right\"], \"controls\": [\"difdemshare\", \"demofficeexp\", \"demelectexp\", \"othofficeexp\", \"othelectexp\"]})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_8b762b0f","text":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","args":{"dataset":"lee_randomized_experiments","y":"demsharenext","x":["right"],"controls":["difdemshare","demofficeexp","demelectexp","othofficeexp","othelectexp"]}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"ec3e738814b1e4bb5dd80921ec046c95bf8e48674de23e1874d2bde7cc1c5782","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["72268a1d3d104d4af81bfc166d33f4b944d2b6bc9aa42452ab51c59f5976aa25"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":0.7307920604944229}}
{"call_id":"call_12e2f1d8","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d/causcibench_real.q010/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"tool","name":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"lee_randomized_experiments","y":"demsharenext","x":["right"],"controls":["difdemshare","demofficeexp","demelectexp","othofficeexp","othelectexp"],"fe":[],"cluster":null,"se":"HC1","weights":null,"subset":null,"intercept":true,"level":0.95},"input_digest":"5ba207633457586dc107126d418b0ee8b67122151147de08a4883beb195aae92","dataset_digests":{"lee_randomized_experiments":"21a560c5370924e053162793eea8c7ca51a065d930a3dc9086ce8e8b8ccc3c0c"},"result":{"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","call_id":"call_12e2f1d8","status":"ok","reason":"","figures":[{"key":"coef.right","value":0.11423703639468429,"unit":"","label":"Coefficient on right in the regression of demsharenext","se":0.005542081258111553,"ci_low":0.10337274944682967,"ci_high":0.1251013233425389,"ci_level":0.95,"derivation":{"steps":[{"text_pt":"Coeficiente de right na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de demsharenext.","formula":"","terms":[{"symbol":"n","value":6558.0,"unit":"observações","note":""},{"symbol":"k","value":7.0,"unit":"parâmetros","note":""}],"result":0.11423703639468429,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.","formula":"ep = √V_jj","terms":[{"symbol":"V_jj","value":0.00003071466467151133,"unit":"","note":"diagonal da matriz de covariância"}],"result":0.005542081258111553,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 6551 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.","formula":"IC = β ± c · ep","terms":[{"symbol":"β","value":0.11423703639468429,"unit":"","note":""},{"symbol":"c","value":1.960326173845488,"unit":"","note":"quantil 0.975"},{"symbol":"ep","value":0.005542081258111553,"unit":"","note":""}],"result":null,"unit":""}],"note_pt":""}}],"diagnostics":[{"name":"n_obs","value":6558,"flag":false,"note":"observations used"},{"name":"k","value":7,"flag":false,"note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included"},{"name":"r2","value":0.6704418606711513,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"df_resid","value":6551,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"se_type","value":"HC1","flag":false,"note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)"},{"name":"n_clusters","value":null,"flag":false,"note":"errors not clustered"}],"tables":{"coefficients":[{"term":"Intercept","coef":0.44431637544602604,"se":0.003718372062506744,"t":119.4921777533176,"p":0.0,"ci_low":0.43702715336779824,"ci_high":0.45160559752425383},{"term":"right","coef":0.11423703639468429,"se":0.005542081258111553,"t":20.61265995107589,"p":1.6109271525258846e-91,"ci_low":0.10337274944682967,"ci_high":0.1251013233425389},{"term":"difdemshare","coef":0.33069711467939833,"se":0.00745770587402924,"t":44.343008462028514,"p":0.0,"ci_low":0.3160775786576976,"ci_high":0.34531665070109907},{"term":"demofficeexp","coef":0.007326955216792977,"se":0.0031765169877266087,"t":2.3066003566493696,"p":0.02110816070284999,"ci_low":0.001099945824087679,"ci_high":0.013553964609498276},{"term":"demelectexp","coef":-0.007768914609458511,"se":0.003099995161219575,"t":-2.5061053986942765,"p":0.012230971436038471,"ci_low":-0.013845916262791608,"ci_high":-0.0016919129561254144},{"term":"othofficeexp","coef":-0.0038886850727364026,"se":0.003728890943377066,"t":-1.0428529908183959,"p":0.2970548664413075,"ci_low":-0.011198527588453858,"ci_high":0.0034211574429810535},{"term":"othelectexp","coef":0.003772981815595272,"se":0.003587761250021146,"t":1.0516256664439516,"p":0.2930101164747462,"ci_low":-0.0032602004683297855,"ci_high":0.01080616409952033}]},"datasets":{},"warnings":["1 rows were dropped because one of 'demsharenext', 'right', 'difdemshare', 'demofficeexp', 'demelectexp', 'othofficeexp', 'othelectexp' was missing"],"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"notes":""},"outputs":null,"output_digest":"40aa780d0ae45d3edd125fc8ef5a96d09ce01959cb1cfa8691a5107c351866de","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:10:59.966304Z","duration_ms":9.74683417007327,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: rdd","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{"turn_id":"call_8b762b0f","llm_name":"infer__ols","vendor_id":"script_1","result_for_model_ref":"8b9e320b3767f5ecfda6389b07fbbcd3b6f8edcda8b09b2195800d5d235d4b93"}}
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