{"call_id":"call_e73838e1","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d/causcibench_real.q115/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:11:02.183903Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"taddeo_causal\",\n \"rows\": 1364,\n \"description\": \"This data analyzes the demographic impacts of the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. The virus was first detected in 2015; the state of Pernambuco (PE) was strongly affected by the epidemic, while the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) had no reported case. The data consists of a time series of annual births and birth rates extracted from administrative databases on 682 municipalities (185 in PE and 497 in RS) during the period from 2008 to 2016.\\n\\nDataset variables:\\n- StudyYear: The year of data collection\\n- Code: Municipality code\\n- Births: Overall number of births in a year\\n- BirthSchool: Births among mothers >= 8 years of schooling\\n- Rate: Birth rate\\n- trt: Whether a municipality experienced the Zika epidemic or not (1 = state of Pernambuco, 0 = Rio Grande do Sul )\\n- year: Indicator for study year (1 = After 2015, the year when virus was detected; 0 = Before 2015)\\n- interaction: Interaction between trt and year\\n- Pop: Total population count for each municipality\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"StudyYear\": \"float64\",\n  \"Code\": \"int64\",\n  \"Births\": \"int64\",\n  \"BirthSchool\": \"float64\",\n  \"Rate\": \"float64\",\n  \"trt\": \"float64\",\n  \"year\": \"float64\",\n  \"interaction\": \"float64\",\n  \"Pop\": \"int64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nDoes the presence of a Zika epidemic in a municipality lead to lower birth rates?","response":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did\ninfer__ols({\"dataset\": \"taddeo_causal\", \"y\": \"Rate\", \"x\": [\"interaction\"], \"controls\": [], \"fe\": [\"trt\", \"year\"]})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_e73838e1","text":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","args":{"dataset":"taddeo_causal","y":"Rate","x":["interaction"],"controls":[],"fe":["trt","year"]}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"60d16cd5cadff1af1aea8e1901ebc7dbd5e2e705a5b76e69fbc9a508eb9379bf","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["162c228584a62d5319315c92f6a67fbb8b996ee9e84bbbc84182ef68d1500d1c"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":1.3707908801734447}}
{"call_id":"call_bcf2b34d","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d/causcibench_real.q115/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"tool","name":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"taddeo_causal","y":"Rate","x":["interaction"],"controls":[],"fe":["trt","year"],"cluster":null,"se":"HC1","weights":null,"subset":null,"intercept":true,"level":0.95},"input_digest":"6cc6867217f8ffa6147b36a55b602fe58a851d6fb1bf0403b19748d854393e16","dataset_digests":{"taddeo_causal":"8b591cbdfc0ebc444b38b700b52709c0c2d4e3353eface15dedbc136a948e69c"},"result":{"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","call_id":"call_bcf2b34d","status":"ok","reason":"","figures":[{"key":"coef.interaction","value":-1.2069393518549132,"unit":"","label":"Coefficient on interaction in the regression of Rate","se":0.3255221566462092,"ci_low":-1.8455193659887026,"ci_high":-0.5683593377211238,"ci_level":0.95,"derivation":{"steps":[{"text_pt":"Coeficiente de interaction na regressão por mínimos quadrados ordinários de Rate, efeitos fixos de trt, year.","formula":"","terms":[{"symbol":"n","value":1364.0,"unit":"observações","note":""},{"symbol":"k","value":4.0,"unit":"parâmetros","note":""}],"result":-1.2069393518549132,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.","formula":"ep = √V_jj","terms":[{"symbol":"V_jj","value":0.10596467446759916,"unit":"","note":"diagonal da matriz de covariância"}],"result":0.3255221566462092,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 1360 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.","formula":"IC = β ± c · ep","terms":[{"symbol":"β","value":-1.2069393518549132,"unit":"","note":""},{"symbol":"c","value":1.9617098286425532,"unit":"","note":"quantil 0.975"},{"symbol":"ep","value":0.3255221566462092,"unit":"","note":""}],"result":null,"unit":""}],"note_pt":""}}],"diagnostics":[{"name":"n_obs","value":1364,"flag":false,"note":"observations used"},{"name":"k","value":4,"flag":false,"note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included"},{"name":"r2","value":0.30171571054824275,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"df_resid","value":1360,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"se_type","value":"HC1","flag":false,"note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)"},{"name":"n_clusters","value":null,"flag":false,"note":"errors not clustered"},{"name":"fixed_effects","value":"trt (2 levels), year (2 levels)","flag":false,"note":"absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated"}],"tables":{"coefficients":[{"term":"Intercept","coef":10.486052308651912,"se":0.12298440891575638,"t":85.2632654911144,"p":0.0,"ci_low":10.244792584912078,"ci_high":10.727312032391746},{"term":"interaction","coef":-1.2069393518549132,"se":0.3255221566462092,"t":-3.7077026162820133,"p":0.00021755762294263815,"ci_low":-1.8455193659887026,"ci_high":-0.5683593377211238}]},"datasets":{},"warnings":[],"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"notes":""},"outputs":null,"output_digest":"41d578af920a6913fff83565e9ba90145678ebf23a7886f1353858382e77f599","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:11:02.187911Z","duration_ms":2.6228749193251133,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{"turn_id":"call_e73838e1","llm_name":"infer__ols","vendor_id":"script_1","result_for_model_ref":"c4dbf84bf171448f718b62cdfdef92925bc4572dc40e9f622fb2d19b3419abc6"}}
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