{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"urdinez_undermining":{"description_shown":"The data comes from an online panel survey conducted across 6 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The survey was conducted in two waves, before Chinese COVID-19 vaccines were available and after vaccination campaigns were being carried out extensively. In the first round, the survey gathered socio-demographic information and participants' views on the six countries. Meanwhile, the second wave contained vaccine-corrected questions, such as whether respondents had received the Chinese Covid-19 vaccine. Both surveys asked the participants' attitudes towards China and the USA.\nData variables:\nwave: survey year (2020, 2021)\nduration: time spent by respondents in the survey\ncountry: numeric country code\ndevice: survey device used\nsex: 0=female, 1=male\nage: respondents' age\nagerecode: age group code\nvaccine: vaccination status\nsouth_korea_score: favorability score assigned to South Korea\nchina_score: favorability score assigned to China\nusa_score: favorability score assigned to the U.S.\njapan_score: favorability score assigned to Japan\nideology: political ideology\neducation: highest education level\nregion_ar: Argentina subregion code\nregion_br: Brazil subregion code\nregion_co: Colombia subregion code\nregion_cl: Chile subregion code\nregion_mx: Mexico subregion code\nregion_pe: Peru subregion code\ndelta_china: change in favorability score for China\ndelta_usa: change in favorability score for the U.S.\nincome: respondents' income\nregion_code: numeric region identifier\ncountry_name: name of the country\nrespondent_code: unique respondent identifier\nnews_experiment: treatment in survey experiment\nboth_waves: indicator if respondent answered both waves\nexcluded: indicator for excluded observations","file_sha256":"0d804a4b724492f48aeb435e50c458467d1633762f28d7877e8d78bf85daf286","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does receiving a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine cause an increase in an individual's favorability toward China?","question_sha256":"fafe7c207967c069608da5e66c09725f3ada89ab1c151041642721baf9101997","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","task_sha256":"67b066019b7a57f3561d41641c69473187e0f107ebf24fc7e60ee184dca00b23","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:01.368862Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_6eca2377","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4e288d2ca8fa6a2d7a4743378e944d5fdda3eed27146ff1e4e3bc4caf9f415b0"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"9f7130375e58cf06164380c723b1f32eb13ce915840d15bacd2bfa1348d64178","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"controls":[],"dataset":"urdinez_undermining","fe":["respondent_code","wave"],"x":["vaccine"],"y":"china_score"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:01.368862Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"urdinez_undermining","fe":["respondent_code","wave"],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["vaccine"],"y":"china_score"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_ddcf679b","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"urdinez_undermining":"be8c21837f47851acc322a376c4d699f08336d9143f56b79277184ea265367ee"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2389.6136248949915,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"27115422e92fec8b8c8c1cee8d662c15887765fd2dfaaada16f0842a99cd98f4","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"dddcd534f5e3af4d339ae7656f34eb391d7bc28841ecc37dd1cfd59c107d2fb9","rationale":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: did","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_ddcf679b","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":4445},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2861},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.7837543883864699},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":1584},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null},{"flag":false,"name":"fixed_effects","note":"absorbed as dummies; their coefficients are not tabulated","value":"respondent_code (2859 levels), wave (2 levels)"}],"figures":[{"ci_high":7.812551080802441,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.13814688802713304,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":3.9753489844147873,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":4445.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2861.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de vaccine na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de china_score, efeitos fixos de respondent_code, wave.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":1.9562961797160763,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":3.8270947427717146}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":3.9753489844147873},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9614627560866371},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":1.9562961797160763}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 1584 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.vaccine","label":"Coefficient on vaccine in the regression of china_score","se":1.9562961797160763,"unit":"","value":3.9753489844147873}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":79.24300151456248,"ci_low":-23.408499410775654,"coef":27.91725105189341,"p":0.28618656789293045,"se":26.167078780058173,"t":1.0668845111273573,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":7.812551080802441,"ci_low":0.13814688802713304,"coef":3.9753489844147873,"p":0.04231220031595482,"se":1.9562961797160763,"t":2.032079306616927,"term":"vaccine"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"1640972145ca3422ae4c0eba76a8b3bff6d7e9e1f7a1f2b83a804a801b1cc4e0","result_sha256":"032918eeb0c1e4a3a12e8cb295fbff61f4ccf91fd962c803396d598a729e381a","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:01.371394Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_6eca2377"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_61d59b37","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4e288d2ca8fa6a2d7a4743378e944d5fdda3eed27146ff1e4e3bc4caf9f415b0","3c8b8537762170ab92f05b1d3dac00902f34d250a44c33a6e249eaf19ca616d4","a79602811272b65a615c4037919eeda5124e4d1e012ce474a53fde6a8acbf84f"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"9f7130375e58cf06164380c723b1f32eb13ce915840d15bacd2bfa1348d64178","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.vaccine = 3,975.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_ddcf679b:coef.vaccine"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.761191Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_a296e188","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["3,975"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.762832Z","turn_id":"call_61d59b37","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.vaccine = 3,975.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_ddcf679b","ci_high":7.812551080802441,"ci_low":0.13814688802713304,"formatted":3.9753489844147873,"key":"coef.vaccine","ref":"call_ddcf679b:coef.vaccine","se":1.9562961797160763,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":3.9753489844147873},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_ddcf679b:coef.vaccine"],"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.763021Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.763021Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"3.975348984 vs 3.96","expected":3.96,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":3.9753489844147873,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q085","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_ddcf679b","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.763021Z"}