{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"bokemper_experimental_evidence":{"description_shown":"The randomized experiment examines the causal relationship between beliefs, social norms, and reported intentions to engage in mask promoting behavior.\nSubjects are randomly assigned to a control group, a \"\"Mask Protects You\"\" group, and a \"\"Mask Protects Others\"\" group.\nThe control group reads a message unrelated to the experiment, the \"\"Mask Protects You\"\" group reads a message about how masks protect the wearer, and the \"\"Mask Protects Others\"\" group reads a message about how masks protect others.\nAfter the treatment, subjects are asked about their beliefs about masks.\nThey then read three vignette scenarios, taking place at an ATM, in a park or in a meeting in their neighborhood.\nIn the first scenario, they are asked about what they would do when they have forgotten to bring their mask. In the second scenario, they are asked about what they would do if someone else was not wearing their mask properly. In the third scenario, they are asked about their evaluation of someone who took action against someone not wearing their mask properly.\n\nVariables in the dataset:\n\nage: age of the subject\nfemale: whether the subject is female\nlucid_hhi: household income\nlucid_incmissing: whether the subject's income is missing\nethnicity: ethnicity of the subject\neducation: education level of the subject\nworkstatus: work status of the subject\nfluvaccine: whether the subject has received the flu vaccine\npool_self_scenario_atm: whether the first vignette scenario takes place at an ATM\npool_self_scenario_meet: whether the first vignette scenario takes place in a meeting in the neighborhood\npool_other_scenario_atm: whether the second vignette scenario takes place at an ATM\npool_other_scenario_meet: whether the second vignette scenario takes place in a meeting in the neighborhood\npartisanship_1: whether the subject is a strong democrat\npartisanship_2: whether the subject is a democrat\npartisanship_3: whether the subject is a democrat lean\npartisanship_4: whether the subject is an independent\npartisanship_5: whether the subject is a republican lean\npartisanship_6: whether the subject is a republican\npartisanship_7: whether the subject is a strong republican\nT_mask_protectyou: whether the subject was in the \"\"Mask Protects You\"\" group\nT_mask_protectother: whether the subject was in the \"\"Mask Protects Others\"\" group\nmskblfs_prtctothers: whether the subject believes that masks protect others after the intervention\nmskblfs_prtctyou: whether the subject believes that masks protect the wearer after the intervention\npool_self: own mask wearing behavior in the vignette scenario, 1 means they would continue the activity without a mask, 2 means they would continue the activity without a mask while keeping distance from others, 3 means they would abandon the activity, 4 means they would go retrieve their mask and then continue the activity\npool_other: behavior when someone else is not wearing their mask properly, 1 means they would continue the activity as normal, 2 means they would continue the activity as normal while keeping distance from others, 3 means they would abandon the activity, 4 means they would ask the other person to wear the mask properly\npool_self_others: whether others are wearing masks in the first vignette scenario\npool_other_others: whether others are wearing masks in the second vignette scenario","file_sha256":"e94fe873cb4358fa045bc38ef25d976d69a12ed882c571b03327e0a5b7be7723","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"How much does providing information about how masks protect the wearer increase the likelihood that someone would wear a mask?","question_sha256":"68563d1e057a9f711f3b239089fedd9bc985280d4d18f089dfb3c94fd977be12","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","task_sha256":"fdc1ee351a20db92f2237e6c8e608802f865e5d532a76d13e3b97827a4fe505e","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.492662Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_ca57098c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["a2055e7137f1cfc427303641545c3401461c2db085712d4935a2c614bdd12a4f"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"c7b7a7e4a343e723ba48cf64aea7f26bb6c2d1d0fea8d2ec3c2646421bd96b92","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: ols","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"controls":["pool_self_scenario_atm","pool_self_scenario_meet","age","female","lucid_hhi","lucid_incmissing","ethnicity","education","workstatus","fluvaccine","partisanship_1","partisanship_2","partisanship_3","partisanship_5","partisanship_6","partisanship_7"],"dataset":"bokemper_experimental_evidence","x":["T_mask_protectyou"],"y":"pool_self"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.492662Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":["pool_self_scenario_atm","pool_self_scenario_meet","age","female","lucid_hhi","lucid_incmissing","ethnicity","education","workstatus","fluvaccine","partisanship_1","partisanship_2","partisanship_3","partisanship_5","partisanship_6","partisanship_7"],"dataset":"bokemper_experimental_evidence","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["T_mask_protectyou"],"y":"pool_self"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_ef3dfcb9","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"bokemper_experimental_evidence":"e2a4c2f6a5449108e627246309dda3cbfe09d0576c9c98eb7dc615e7e153447d"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":7.912833942100406,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"17dd28543c7163664aec6f6fce94b74aa710eb37777dc50d364817c352f8b897","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"27487337b52efff061d079519ced6e1c2cbaef0daa27e65a93860e8d523019cf","rationale":"causcibench_metadata_rule/1: ols","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_ef3dfcb9","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":2872},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":18},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.12124855116644839},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":2854},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.023282831624101316,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.13989540113548704,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-0.05830628475569287,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":2872.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":18.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de T_mask_protectyou na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de pool_self.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.041610211109492395,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0017314096685765244}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-0.05830628475569287},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9607955404288142},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.041610211109492395}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2854 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.T_mask_protectyou","label":"Coefficient on T_mask_protectyou in the regression of pool_self","se":0.041610211109492395,"unit":"","value":-0.05830628475569287}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":3.017195523496308,"ci_low":2.643882594622973,"coef":2.8305390590596406,"p":1.7437836316994657e-169,"se":0.0951942518167126,"t":29.734348503621543,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.023282831624101316,"ci_low":-0.13989540113548704,"coef":-0.05830628475569287,"p":0.1612482244803821,"se":0.041610211109492395,"t":-1.4012494337571784,"term":"T_mask_protectyou"},{"ci_high":-0.36029211805543554,"ci_low":-0.5550014381364357,"coef":-0.4576467780959356,"p":5.744389757881614e-20,"se":0.0496505923402953,"t":-9.21734780039109,"term":"pool_self_scenario_atm"},{"ci_high":0.1804698820179101,"ci_low":-0.002859990161792267,"coef":0.08880494592805892,"p":0.05758401647154279,"se":0.04674884973973605,"t":1.8996177750353418,"term":"pool_self_scenario_meet"},{"ci_high":0.012082383814019212,"ci_low":0.007463584437979533,"coef":0.009772984125999373,"p":1.6156968430715447e-16,"se":0.0011777870973302944,"t":8.29775105208057,"term":"age"},{"ci_high":0.021291566052496727,"ci_low":-0.13835700995711858,"coef":-0.058532721952310934,"p":0.1506027925270514,"se":0.04071015379163427,"t":-1.4377917178082267,"term":"female"},{"ci_high":0.007326175466400904,"ci_low":-0.005092936290210984,"coef":0.00111661958809496,"p":0.7244175970177592,"se":0.0031668553657297443,"t":0.3525957011420556,"term":"lucid_hhi"},{"ci_high":0.184452816178788,"ci_low":-0.2182639394919208,"coef":-0.01690556165656639,"p":0.8692518780065621,"se":0.10269218471973805,"t":-0.16462364397742763,"term":"lucid_incmissing"},{"ci_high":0.0895842666416809,"ci_low":-0.0006788565648713843,"coef":0.044452705038404754,"p":0.053544651055944664,"se":0.02301696463130783,"t":1.9313017919808542,"term":"ethnicity"},{"ci_high":0.031193897388551276,"ci_low":-0.027284796715478312,"coef":0.001954550336536481,"p":0.8957272132705452,"se":0.01491198161620682,"t":0.13107247492930205,"term":"education"},{"ci_high":0.012301950890084935,"ci_low":-0.051959309261517005,"coef":-0.019828679185716035,"p":0.22635613622110748,"se":0.0163865275156502,"t":-1.2100598596486263,"term":"workstatus"},{"ci_high":0.049116622513800064,"ci_low":0.011256030780099853,"coef":0.03018632664694996,"p":0.0017856431725178713,"se":0.009654395614705531,"t":3.126692529667034,"term":"fluvaccine"},{"ci_high":0.1968643531784267,"ci_low":-0.05512110842594266,"coef":0.07087162237624202,"p":0.2701381545866435,"se":0.06425592480418985,"t":1.1029585612877335,"term":"partisanship_1"},{"ci_high":0.26861454229711934,"ci_low":-0.013583521391374753,"coef":0.1275155104528723,"p":0.07649610080221346,"se":0.0719600942245052,"t":1.7720308988901843,"term":"partisanship_2"},{"ci_high":0.31805026417298,"ci_low":0.00444313439117669,"coef":0.16124669928207833,"p":0.043856272700191545,"se":0.07996936022029591,"t":2.0163559998214735,"term":"partisanship_3"},{"ci_high":-0.06661209653554706,"ci_low":-0.4397600227307437,"coef":-0.2531860596331454,"p":0.007837919794934383,"se":0.0951521763746952,"t":-2.6608541105369587,"term":"partisanship_5"},{"ci_high":0.07136935640456356,"ci_low":-0.24773929370746084,"coef":-0.08818496865144863,"p":0.27857917360804596,"se":0.08137223987214832,"t":-1.0837230090999637,"term":"partisanship_6"},{"ci_high":-0.3360224767834441,"ci_low":-0.6174170884603055,"coef":-0.4767197826218748,"p":3.649731796218491e-11,"se":0.07175521513459839,"t":-6.643695259329153,"term":"partisanship_7"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["228 rows were dropped because one of 'pool_self', 'T_mask_protectyou', 'pool_self_scenario_atm', 'pool_self_scenario_meet', 'age', 'female', 'lucid_hhi', 'lucid_incmissing', 'ethnicity', 'education', 'workstatus', 'fluvaccine', 'partisanship_1', 'partisanship_2', 'partisanship_3', 'partisanship_5', 'partisanship_6', 'partisanship_7' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"636ac1ecfcb43cce02acfd7e0b00220cc37c7b544818668f87ca2ad5a4a80bf0","result_sha256":"b4a7dcb190700b8684d99fa9e7b7f4ac43d3526588313eeb12d8bf46b4062e48","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.495616Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_ca57098c"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_feeb3eca","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["a2055e7137f1cfc427303641545c3401461c2db085712d4935a2c614bdd12a4f","28b42a47e4a52d9e7c0ce9e34862739c90dde9b3fa260dc6c442d177d50be8c5","f2e6e12edf5ec78b84868361e8c39e9fa139fb636bc063c890468b6b2b8fc442"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"c7b7a7e4a343e723ba48cf64aea7f26bb6c2d1d0fea8d2ec3c2646421bd96b92","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.T_mask_protectyou = -0,05831.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_ef3dfcb9:coef.T_mask_protectyou"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.503870Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_323dfe36","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["-0,05831"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.505642Z","turn_id":"call_feeb3eca","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.T_mask_protectyou = -0,05831.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_ef3dfcb9","ci_high":0.023282831624101316,"ci_low":-0.13989540113548704,"formatted":-0.05830628475569287,"key":"coef.T_mask_protectyou","ref":"call_ef3dfcb9:coef.T_mask_protectyou","se":0.041610211109492395,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":-0.05830628475569287},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_ef3dfcb9:coef.T_mask_protectyou"],"run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.505875Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.505875Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"-0.05830628476 vs 0.023","expected":0.023,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":-0.05830628475569287,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q138","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_ef3dfcb9","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171059Z-suite-causcibench_real-scripted-ded01d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q138","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:03.505875Z"}