{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"lee_randomized_experiments":{"description_shown":"This dataset includes information on U.S. House of Representatives elections from 1946 to 1998. Most of the data come from the Historical Election Returns compiled by the ICPSR, with results from 1992 to 1998 obtained from the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Missing values were imputed using average electoral outcomes by state and year or by state and decade. The dataset includes both vote share data and candidate characteristics.\n\nVariable Information:\ndemsharenext: Democratic vote share in the next election\ndemshareprev: Democratic vote share in the previous election\ndemwinprev: 1 if Democrats held the seat in the previous election, 0 otherwise\ndifdemshare: Difference in vote share between the Democratic and Republican candidates\ndifdemshare2 to difdemshare4: Squared, cubed, and fourth-power of the vote share difference\nrdifdemshare to rdifdemshare4: Transformed vote share differences for observations above a set threshold\ndemofficeexp: Political experience of the Democratic candidate\nothelectexp: Electoral experience of the opposing candidate\nuse: 1 if the observation is included in the analysis, 0 otherwise\nright: 1 if the Democratic candidate's vote share is above the threshold, 0 otherwise","file_sha256":"ceb5dd7ef24d21d461cb986e95dde201c67e773f2c40e26b8a7e6278b9036813","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does winning an election in a given period influence the party's subsequent electoral success?","question_sha256":"c1c371c474bf72ba4e04cce672be5a03871ca261520e78dde621db3715c5c16f","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","task_sha256":"0e11859aa3c2da5faa3b072d0ea0ca333895a940a78af4da4f48f1f42aaa06ce","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.953191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_c011accc","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["72268a1d3d104d4af81bfc166d33f4b944d2b6bc9aa42452ab51c59f5976aa25"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"ec3e738814b1e4bb5dd80921ec046c95bf8e48674de23e1874d2bde7cc1c5782","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.953191Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_50e775cd","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.955933Z","turn_id":"call_c011accc","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.956035Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.956035Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.076,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q010","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q010","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:22.956035Z"}