{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"autor_china_syndrome":{"description_shown":"This study assembles a commuting-zone panel for 1990-2007 to quantify how changes in Chinese import exposure relate to U.S. local labor-market outcomes, merging County Business Patterns, Census/ACS, and trade data to track employment, wages, nonemployment, and transfer receipts across places and time. The unit of observation is the commuting zone-year, with baseline characteristics recorded at the start of each period and subsequent changes measured over decade-length intervals.\nVariables include:\nczone: Commuting zone identifier\nstatefip: State FIPS code for the commuting zone\ncity: City/metropolitan label linked to the commuting zone\nyr: Calendar year of observation\nt2: Time-period indicator (e.g., 1990-2000 vs. 2000-2007 window)\ntimepwt48: Period weight used for aggregating across time intervals\nreg_midatl: Mid-Atlantic region dummy\nreg_encen: East North Central region dummy\nreg_wncen: West North Central region dummy\nreg_satl: South Atlantic region dummy\nreg_escen: East South Central region dummy\nreg_wscen: West South Central region dummy\nreg_mount: Mountain region dummy\nreg_pacif: Pacific region dummy\nl_popcount: Log working-age population count at baseline\nl_no_workers_totcbp: Log total employment (CBP) at baseline\nl_shind_manuf_cbp: Baseline share employed in manufacturing industries (CBP)\nl_sh_popedu_c: Baseline share of population with college education\nl_sh_popfborn: Baseline share of foreign-born population\nl_sh_empl_f: Baseline female employment share\nl_sh_routine33: Baseline share in routine-task occupations\nl_task_outsource: Baseline task offshorability index (higher = more offshorable)\nl_sh_empl: Baseline employment-to-population share\nl_sh_empl_mfg: Baseline manufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_mfg_m: Baseline male manufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_mfg_f: Baseline female manufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_mfg_edu_nc: Baseline manufacturing share, non-college\nl_sh_empl_mfg_edu_c: Baseline manufacturing share, college\nl_sh_empl_mfg_age1634: Baseline manufacturing share, ages 16-34\nl_sh_empl_mfg_age3549: Baseline manufacturing share, ages 35-49\nl_sh_empl_mfg_age5064: Baseline manufacturing share, ages 50-64\nl_sh_empl_nmfg: Baseline nonmanufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_m: Baseline male nonmanufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_f: Baseline female nonmanufacturing employment share\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_edu_nc: Baseline nonmanufacturing share, non-college\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_edu_c: Baseline nonmanufacturing share, college\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_age1634: Baseline nonmanufacturing share, ages 16-34\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_age3549: Baseline nonmanufacturing share, ages 35-49\nl_sh_empl_nmfg_age5064: Baseline nonmanufacturing share, ages 50-64\nl_sh_unempl: Baseline unemployment share\nl_sh_unempl_m: Baseline male unemployment share\nl_sh_unempl_f: Baseline female unemployment share\nl_sh_unempl_edu_nc: Baseline unemployment share, non-college\nl_sh_unempl_edu_c: Baseline unemployment share, college\nl_sh_unempl_age1634: Baseline unemployment share, ages 16-34\nl_sh_unempl_age3549: Baseline unemployment share, ages 35-49\nl_sh_unempl_age5064: Baseline unemployment share, ages 50-64\nl_sh_nilf: Baseline not-in-labor-force share\nl_sh_nilf_m: Baseline NILF share, male\nl_sh_nilf_f: Baseline NILF share, female\nl_sh_nilf_edu_nc: Baseline NILF share, non-college\nl_sh_nilf_edu_c: Baseline NILF share, college\nl_sh_nilf_age1634: Baseline NILF share, ages 16-34\nl_sh_nilf_age3549: Baseline NILF share, ages 35-49\nl_sh_nilf_age5064: Baseline NILF share, ages 50-64\nl_sh_ssadiswkrs: Baseline share on SSDI (disabled workers)\nl_avg_lnwkwage_mfg: Baseline log average weekly wage in manufacturing\nl_avg_lnwkwage_nmfg: Baseline log average weekly wage in nonmanufacturing\nl_trans_totindiv_pc: Baseline per-capita total individual transfers\nl_trans_totmed_pc: Baseline per-capita total Medicare transfers\nl_trans_fedinc_pc: Baseline per-capita federal income assistance\nl_trans_othinc_pc: Baseline per-capita other income assistance\nl_trans_unemp_pc: Baseline per-capita unemployment benefits\nl_trans_taaimp_pc: Baseline per-capita Trade Adjustment Assistance payments\nl_trans_totedu_pc: Baseline per-capita education-related transfers\nl_trans_ssaret_pc: Baseline per-capita Social Security retirement\nl_trans_ssadis_pc: Baseline per-capita Social Security disability\nl_avg_hhincsum_pc_pw: Baseline per-worker average household total income per capita\nl_avg_hhincwage_pc_pw: Baseline per-worker average household wage income per capita\nl_tradeusch_pw: Baseline U.S. imports-from-China exposure per worker\nl_tradeotch_pw: Baseline China exports to other high-income markets exposure per worker\nd_tradeusch_pw: Change in U.S. imports-from-China exposure per worker\nd_tradeotch_pw_lag: Lagged change in China-to-others exposure per worker\nlnchg_popworkage: Log change in working-age population\nlnchg_popworkage_edu_c: Log change in working-age population, college\nlnchg_popworkage_edu_nc: Log change in working-age population, non-college\nlnchg_popworkage_age1634: Log change, ages 16-34\nlnchg_popworkage_age3549: Log change, ages 35-49\nlnchg_popworkage_age5064: Log change, ages 50-64\nd_popcount: Change in population count\nd_sh_empl: Change in employment-to-population share\nd_sh_empl_mfg: Change in manufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_nmfg: Change in nonmanufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_mfg_m: Change in male manufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_m: Change in male nonmanufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_mfg_f: Change in female manufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_f: Change in female nonmanufacturing employment share\nd_sh_empl_mfg_edu_nc: Change in manufacturing share, non-college\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_edu_nc: Change in nonmanufacturing share, non-college\nd_sh_empl_mfg_edu_c: Change in manufacturing share, college\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_edu_c: Change in nonmanufacturing share, college\nd_sh_empl_mfg_age1634: Change in manufacturing share, ages 16-34\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_age1634: Change in nonmanufacturing share, ages 16-34\nd_sh_empl_mfg_age3549: Change in manufacturing share, ages 35-49\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_age3549: Change in nonmanufacturing share, ages 35-49\nd_sh_empl_mfg_age5064: Change in manufacturing share, ages 50-64\nd_sh_empl_nmfg_age5064: Change in nonmanufacturing share, ages 50-64\nd_sh_empl_edu_c: Change in overall employment share, college\nd_sh_empl_edu_nc: Change in overall employment share, non-college\nd_sh_unempl: Change in unemployment share\nd_sh_unempl_m: Change in male unemployment share\nd_sh_unempl_f: Change in female unemployment share\nd_sh_unempl_edu_nc: Change in unemployment share, non-college\nd_sh_unempl_edu_c: Change in unemployment share, college\nd_sh_unempl_age1634: Change in unemployment share, ages 16-34\nd_sh_unempl_age3549: Change in unemployment share, ages 35-49\nd_sh_unempl_age5064: Change in unemployment share, ages 50-64\nd_sh_nilf: Change in not-in-labor-force share\nd_sh_nilf_m: Change in NILF share, male\nd_sh_nilf_f: Change in NILF share, female\nd_sh_nilf_edu_nc: Change in NILF share, non-college\nd_sh_nilf_edu_c: Change in NILF share, college\nd_sh_nilf_age1634: Change in NILF share, ages 16-34\nd_sh_nilf_age3549: Change in NILF share, ages 35-49\nd_sh_nilf_age5064: Change in NILF share, ages 50-64\nd_sh_ssadiswkrs: Change in SSDI recipient share\nd_avg_lnwkwage: Change in log average weekly wage (overall)\nd_avg_lnwkwage_c: Change in log average weekly wage, college\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nc: Change in log average weekly wage, non-college\nd_avg_lnwkwage_m: Change in log average weekly wage, male\nd_avg_lnwkwage_f: Change in log average weekly wage, female\nd_avg_lnwkwage_c_m: Change in log average weekly wage, college males\nd_avg_lnwkwage_c_f: Change in log average weekly wage, college females\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nc_m: Change in log average weekly wage, non-college males\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nc_f: Change in log average weekly wage, non-college females\nd_avg_lnwkwage_mfg: Change in log average weekly wage in manufacturing\nd_avg_lnwkwage_mfg_c: Change in log manufacturing wage, college\nd_avg_lnwkwage_mfg_nc: Change in log manufacturing wage, non-college\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nmfg: Change in log average weekly wage in nonmanufacturing\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nmfg_c: Change in log nonmanufacturing wage, college\nd_avg_lnwkwage_nmfg_nc: Change in log nonmanufacturing wage, non-college\nlnchg_no_empl: Log change in number employed\nlnchg_no_empl_mfg: Log change in manufacturing employment count\nlnchg_no_empl_nmfg: Log change in nonmanufacturing employment count\nlnchg_no_empl_mfg_edu_nc: Log change in manufacturing employment, non-college\nlnchg_no_empl_nmfg_edu_nc: Log change in nonmanufacturing employment, non-college\nlnchg_no_empl_mfg_edu_c: Log change in manufacturing employment, college\nlnchg_no_empl_nmfg_edu_c: Log change in nonmanufacturing employment, college\nlnchg_no_unempl: Log change in number unemployed\nlnchg_no_nilf: Log change in number not in labor force\nlnchg_no_ssadiswkrs: Log change in number receiving SSDI\nlnchg_trans_totindiv_pc: Log change in per-capita total transfers\nlnchg_trans_totmed_pc: Log change in per-capita Medicare transfers\nlnchg_trans_fedinc_pc: Log change in per-capita federal income assistance\nlnchg_trans_othinc_pc: Log change in per-capita other income assistance\nlnchg_trans_unemp_pc: Log change in per-capita unemployment benefits\nlnchg_trans_taaimp_pc: Log change in per-capita TAA payments\nlnchg_trans_totedu_pc: Log change in per-capita education transfers\nlnchg_trans_ssaret_pc: Log change in per-capita Social Security retirement\nlnchg_trans_ssadis_pc: Log change in per-capita Social Security disability\nd_trans_totindiv_pc: Change in per-capita total transfers\nd_trans_totmed_pc: Change in per-capita Medicare transfers\nd_trans_fedinc_pc: Change in per-capita federal income assistance\nd_trans_othinc_pc: Change in per-capita other income assistance\nd_trans_unemp_pc: Change in per-capita unemployment benefits\nd_trans_taaimp_pc: Change in per-capita TAA payments\nd_trans_totedu_pc: Change in per-capita education transfers\nd_trans_ssaret_pc: Change in per-capita Social Security retirement\nd_trans_ssadis_pc: Change in per-capita Social Security disability\nrelchg_avg_hhincsum_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker average household total income per capita\nrelchg_avg_hhincwage_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker average household wage income per capita\nrelchg_avg_hhincbusinv_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker average household business/investment income per capita\nrelchg_avg_hhinctrans_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker average household transfer income per capita\nrelchg_avg_hhincrest_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker average household residual income per capita\nrelchg_med_hhincsum_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker median household total income per capita\nrelchg_med_hhincwage_pc_pw: Relative change in per-worker median household wage income per capita\nd_avg_hhincsum_pc_pw: Change in per-worker average household total income per capita\nd_avg_hhincwage_pc_pw: Change in per-worker average household wage income per capita\nd_avg_hhincbusinv_pc_pw: Change in per-worker average household business/investment income per capita\nd_avg_hhinctrans_pc_pw: Change in per-worker average household transfer income per capita\nd_avg_hhincrest_pc_pw: Change in per-worker average household residual income per capita\nd_med_hhincsum_pc_pw: Change in per-worker median household total income per capita\nd_med_hhincwage_pc_pw: Change in per-worker median household wage income per capita\nd_tradex_usch_pw: Change in exposure to U.S. exports to China per worker\nd_tradex_otch_pw_lag: Lagged change in exposure to China's exports to other high-income markets per worker\nd_tradeusch_netinput_pw: Change in net trade exposure per worker using input linkages\nd_inputotch_pw_lag: Lagged change in input-based China-to-others exposure per worker\nd_netimpusch_pw: Change in net imports-from-China exposure per worker\nd_expotch_pw_lag: Lagged change in exposure to Chinese exports per worker\nd_traderes_pw_lag: Lagged change in residual trade exposure per worker\nd_nettradefactor_usch_io: Change in factor-based net trade exposure (U.S.-China, input-output weighted)\nd_tradefactor_otch_lag_io: Lagged change in factor-based China-to-others exposure (IO weighted)\nd_expfactor_otch_lag_io: Lagged change in factor-based China export exposure (IO weighted)\nd_tradeuschlw_pw: Change in low-wage-weighted U.S. import exposure per worker\nd_tradeotchlw_pw_lag: Lagged change in low-wage-weighted China-to-others exposure per worker\nd_tradeuschce_pw: Change in consumption-expenditure-weighted U.S. import exposure per worker\nd_tradeotchce_pw_lag: Lagged change in consumption-expenditure-weighted China-to-others exposure per worker\nd_tradeusce_pw: Change in U.S. consumption-weighted import exposure per worker\nd_tradeotce_pw_lag: Lagged change in others' consumption-weighted China exposure per worker\nd_tradeushi_pw: Change in high-income-weighted U.S. import exposure per worker\nd_tradeothi_pw_lag: Lagged change in high-income-weighted China-to-others exposure per worker","file_sha256":"603a026947701601a2216badd278060457f392a999eebf58ecbd09d41cb6b155","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does an increase in Chinese import competition reduce the manufacturing employment share in local labor markets?","question_sha256":"cca6b7144078b1b7f12cc56072a69daabceabe66ac3064451a553392bc660fc8","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","task_sha256":"c96d66095fda313d825d2637603f316b2ec38ae3798b544273107832c2b90c89","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.693955Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_4cd21242","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["e2cb1f71c462ff5b25166ed23fa2c7ee5affe75c6a5bf6a17ea7fc65acc10aa4"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"c396d5c9dae3880983b7979d303093904108b840320d8d72cdee6250aabe47ad","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.693955Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_c7707191","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.699445Z","turn_id":"call_4cd21242","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.699573Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.699573Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.746,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q044","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q044","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.699573Z"}