{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"leigh_estimating_the_impact":{"description_shown":"The dataset is a state-year panel spanning mid-20th century to early-21st century state politics and economics, combining election results, legislative composition, fiscal policy, labor markets, distributional statistics, crime, education, and demographics for each state and year.\n\nThe variables are:\nstatename: State name string identifier for observations and merges across sources\nstcode: Two-letter state postal abbreviation used as a compact state identifier\nstfips: Numeric state FIPS code used for merges and fixed effects\nyear: Calendar year aligning outcomes, political control, and policy variables within each state\nstatename/stcode/stfips/year naming: Core keys establishing a state-year panel structure spanning mid-20th to early-21st centuries\nhouse_dems: Number of Democratic seats in the state lower (house) chamber in a given year\nhouse_total: Total seats in the state lower chamber in a given year\nhouse_pctdem: Democratic seat share in the lower chamber, house_dems/house_total\nhouse_margin: Lower-chamber seat margin (e.g., Democratic minus Republican seats)\nhouse_cntrl: Lower-chamber party control indicator based on majority\nsenate_dems: Number of Democratic seats in the state upper (senate) chamber in a given year\nsenate_total: Total seats in the state upper chamber in a given year\nsenate_pctdem: Democratic seat share in the upper chamber, senate_dems/senate_total\nsenate_margin: Upper-chamber seat margin (e.g., Democratic minus Republican seats)\nsenate_cntrl: Upper-chamber party control indicator based on majority\ntotal_dems: Total Democratic seats across both chambers in a given year\ntotal_pctdem: Democratic seat share across both chambers in a given year\ntotal_margin: Combined legislative seat margin across both chambers\ntotal_cntrl: Overall legislature party control indicator based on combined chamber majorities\ndivided: Indicator that governor's party and legislative control differ in a state-year\nhouse_switch: Indicator that lower-chamber party control changed relative to prior year\nsenate_switch: Indicator that upper-chamber party control changed relative to prior year\ngovernor: Party of the sitting governor in the state-year (categorical or binary as coded)\ngov_dem/gov_dem2/gov_dem_p: Alternative codings or interactions of a Democratic-governor indicator used for robustness or subgrouping as defined in the data\ntermyear/sterm/term: Indicators for gubernatorial term timing or tenure alignment with outcomes as defined in the data\ndem_voteshare/voteshare: Two-party Democratic vote share in the most recent gubernatorial election retained for political context\npoverty_pct: Share of persons below the official poverty line in a state-year\npovertylineratio: Income-to-poverty-line ratio measure summarizing depth of poverty in a state-year\nminwage/fminwage/sminwage: Effective, federal, and state minimum wage levels operative in a state-year\ncpiy: Consumer price index or price deflator used for inflation adjustment of nominal series\npop_noninstitutional: Non-institutional civilian population used as labor-market denominator\nlaborforce: Civilian labor force level (employed plus unemployed) in a state-year\nemployed: Number of employed persons in a state-year\nunemployed: Number of unemployed persons in a state-year\nunemploymentrate: Unemployment rate (unemployed/laborforce) in a state-year\nemployment: Total nonfarm employment level in a state-year\nlnemp: Natural logarithm of employment for elasticity-based specifications\nemploymentgap: Deviation of employment from a benchmark or reference as defined in the data\ngsp: Gross state product in current or chained dollars as defined in the series\nemployeecomp: Compensation of employees aggregate (wages and supplements) at the state level\npop/lnpop: Total resident population and its natural logarithm for scale adjustments\npersinc_percap/disppersinc_percap: Personal and disposable personal income per capita in a state-year\npropertyinc: Property income (dividends, interest, rent) aggregate at the state level\neitc_s_child1: State earned income tax credit generosity (e.g., percent of federal) for first child where applicable\nmaxbenefit/afdc_max: Maximum cash-assistance benefit (e.g., AFDC/TANF) for a reference family\nwelfarereform: Indicator for major state welfare reform adoption in a state-year\nafdcwaiver: Indicator for AFDC/TANF policy waivers in a state-year\nafdc_reca: AFDC/TANF recipiency or caseload indicator in a state-year\ntransfers/ui/famassist/foodstamps: Transfers to persons and components (unemployment insurance, family assistance, SNAP)\nstinctax/stmotor/stothertax/stnontaxes: State individual income tax, motor-related taxes, other taxes, and non-tax revenues in a state-year\nstrevenue/strevenue_inc/stinctax_inc/stothertax_inc: Total state revenue and year-over-year revenue changes overall and by tax category\nstax_corpr: State corporate income tax rate or effective measure in a state-year\nstax_topr/stax_botr: Top and bottom marginal personal income tax rates in a state-year\nstax_topb/stax_botb: Taxable income thresholds for top and bottom personal income tax brackets in a state-year\natr: Average tax rate or analogous aggregate rate measure as defined in the tax series\nincrate: Incarceration rate per 100,000 population in a state-year\nvcrime/pcrime: Violent and property crime rates per 100,000 population in a state-year\nexecutions: Number of executions carried out in the state-year\nmrate: All-cause mortality rate per 100,000 population in a state-year\nfsuicide/msuicide/psuicide: Female, male, and total suicide rates per 100,000 population in a state-year\nnaep_read: NAEP reading assessment metric for the state-year\nunionization: Union membership or density measure at the state-year level\ngovpower/govbpower/govpower_std: Indices of gubernatorial institutional power and standardized variants used to study moderation by executive authority\nregion: Census region categorical identifier used in grouped analyses and controls\nregionyr1-regionyr4 naming: Region-by-year interaction indicators (categories 1-4) capturing differential regional trends over time\nprscore/prscored/prscorer: Policy orientation indices summarizing policy stance and partisan policy bundles as defined in the series\nredist: Redistribution index summarizing post-fiscal distributional change in a state-year\nstempwages/stemploy/stempavw: State government employee wage bill or average wages and state-government employment levels\nhouse_dem/senate_dem/leg_dem/leg_rep: Indicators for Democratic or Republican legislative control by chamber or overall legislature\nlegterm/legtermyear: Legislative term-related indicators aligning outcomes with legislative cycles as defined in the data\nall_dem/all_gop: Indicators for unified Democratic or Republican control across relevant state institutions\nall_dem_pd/all_gop_pg: Auxiliary unified control indicators combining party with dataset-specific dimensions as defined in the series\npres_dem/pres_dem2/fsen_dem/fhouse_dem/gov_pres_dem: Federal partisan context indicators (presidential party, congressional party, and governor-president alignment)\nfdem1/fdem2/dem1: Auxiliary Democratic indicators used in pooled or robustness specifications as defined in the series\ngini/gini_census_family: Gini coefficients for pre-tax/transfer income (household/family) and census-family series at the state-year level\n_9050/_5010/_9010/_7525 naming: Pre-tax percentile ratios where _ppqq denotes p-th to q-th percentile income ratio (e.g., _9010 = 90th/10th; _9050 = 90th/50th; _5010 = 50th/10th; _7525 = 75th/25th)\n_9050_pt/_5010_pt/_9010_pt/_7525_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to percentile ratios with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions\nge_m1/ge_0/ge_1/ge_2 naming: Generalized Entropy indices with parameter set k in {-1,0,1,2} for pre-tax distributions, where k indexes sensitivity to different parts of the income distribution\nge_m1_pt/ge_0_pt/ge_1_pt/ge_2_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to Generalized Entropy indices with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions\natk_05/atk_1/atk_2 naming: Atkinson inequality indices with inequality-aversion parameter epsilon in {0.5,1,2} for pre-tax distributions\natk_05_pt/atk_1_pt/atk_2_pt naming: Post-tax/transfer counterparts to Atkinson indices with _pt suffix indicating post-fiscal distributions\nfaminc10-faminc90 naming: Pre-tax family income at selected percentiles where faminc## gives the ##th percentile (## in {10,20,...,90}) in nominal or real terms as defined in the series\nfamincpt10-famincpt90 naming: Post-tax/transfer family income at selected percentiles where famincpt## gives the ##th percentile (## in {10,20,...,90})\nmover10-mover90 naming: Family income at selected percentiles among movers where mover## gives the ##th percentile for movers (## in {10,20,...,90})\nnonmover10-nonmover90 naming: Family income at selected percentiles among non-movers where nonmover## gives the ##th percentile for non-movers (## in {10,20,...,90})\nmean_faminc/sd/cov: Mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of pre-tax family income distribution in a state-year\nmean_faminc_pt/sd_pt/cov_pt: Mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation of post-tax/transfer family income distribution in a state-year\ngini_nat/gini_nat_white/gini_nat_black/gini_nat_hispanic: National Gini benchmarks overall and by race used for normalization and comparative context\nnat##th/nat##th_real naming: National ##th percentile income thresholds (## in {20,40,60,80,95}) in nominal (nat##th) and real (nat##th_real) terms for contextual comparison\nnum_families: Number of families used in constructing the state-level distributional statistics\nlinetitle: Line-item descriptor labeling fiscal series entries for reconciliation and documentation\nIstcode##: State fixed-effect dummies where Istcode## denotes a specific state category (## indexes state codes) to absorb time-invariant state heterogeneity\nIyear_####: Year fixed-effect dummies where _Iyear_#### denotes a calendar year indicator to absorb common shocks and national trends","file_sha256":"29dc7a900c78bf24b67811856cb3d85d5759a0288211332d090607e89b6e451d","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of having a Democratic governor on a state's unionization rate?","question_sha256":"41717e4eebfe3f76114b2dcca0be8648d979188fd4fdb8a58fc74ecc9b385375","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q047","task_sha256":"fc168c191fa8a6fa13f29e6a52fc0b42b5468e28ee305ace8ef83be2a306a1e1","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.234058Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_cc3bac80","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["282bf609feddd8879a572f8a3299892dde6f650bcdb3aae20406e649271a0034"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"b67091a59930054c191a615a2a357d840e8ab097d25692ec84f1d2b9c231ec26","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q047","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.234058Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q047","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.241262Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.277,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q047","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q047","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.241262Z"}