{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"carpenter_the_minimum_legal":{"description_shown":"This dataset aggregates near-census administrative records of emergency department visits and inpatient hospital admissions for U.S. young adults into age-in-months bins around the 21st birthday, with outcomes expressed as rates per 10,000 person-years by cause, gender, pregnancy exclusion, and contributing state tags where available. Age-running variables index months relative to 21, along with pre/post age polynomials and an indicator for the 21st-birthday month to accommodate birthday-month spikes documented in alcohol intoxication visits.\n\nVariables:\nmonths_21: Integer months relative to the 21st birthday (e.g., -24 to +24), indexing the running age variable used to organize age-specific rates\nage: Age reported in years corresponding to the same age-month cell, provided for convenience alongside months_21\nbmonth: Indicator equal to 1 for the month containing the 21st birthday (the \"\"birthday month\"\" control used to accommodate celebration spikes), 0 otherwise\npost: Indicator equal to 1 for observations at or above age 21 in months (post-threshold), 0 otherwise\nlinear, linear_post: Linear age terms for pre- and post-threshold segments, capturing smooth age trends on either side of age 21 within the specified bandwidth\nage_months: Age in months as a non-centered index (e.g., from 228 to 276), facilitating alternative specifications and diagnostics\nage_c, age_c_sq: Age in months centered at 21 (0 at 21) and its square for flexible smooth trends\nover: Synonym for post (equals 1 at and after 21), supplied for alternate coding conventions in estimation\nage_c_post, age_c_post_sq: Interactions of centered age and its square with the post indicator to allow different slopes/curvature after 21\ndummy21: Binary flag for the 21st-birthday month, identical in purpose to bmonth for absorbing discrete celebration effects in that month\nvisit_all_r: All non-pregnancy-screened ED visits per 10,000 person-years in the age-month cell\nalcohol_any_all_r: ED visits with primary alcohol intoxication coding per 10,000\ninjury_all_r: ED visits for any injury cause per 10,000\ninj_by_self_all_r / inj_by_oth_all_r / inj_accident_all_r: ED visits per 10,000 for self-inflicted injuries, injuries inflicted by others, and accidental injuries, respectively\nillness_all_r: ED visits per 10,000 for residual illness (non-alcohol, non-injury)\ninjury_or_alc_all_r: Composite of injury or alcohol intoxication ED visits per 10,000; visit_all_np_r, alcohol_any_all_np_r, injury_all_np_r, inj_by_self_all_np_r, inj_by_oth_all_np_r, inj_accident_all_np_r, illness_all_np_r, injury_or_alc_all_np_r: Same definitions as \"\"all_r\"\" but excluding pregnancy-related encounters, aligning with the study's analytic sample\nvisit_m_r, alcohol_any_m_r, injury_m_r, inj_by_self_m_r, inj_by_oth_m_r, inj_accident_m_r, illness_m_r, injury_or_alc_m_r: Male-only ED rates per 10,000 by cause\nvisit_f_r, alcohol_any_f_r, injury_f_r, inj_by_self_f_r, inj_by_oth_f_r, inj_accident_f_r, illness_f_r, injury_or_alc_f_r: Female-only ED rates per 10,000 by cause\nvisit_f_np_r, alcohol_any_f_np_r, injury_f_np_r, inj_by_self_f_np_r, inj_by_oth_f_np_r, inj_accident_f_np_r, illness_f_np_r, injury_or_alc_f_np_r: Female-only non-pregnancy ED rates per 10,000 by cause\nvisit_az_np_r, alcohol_any_az_np_r, injury_az_np_r, inj_by_self_az_np_r, inj_by_oth_az_np_r, inj_accident_az_np_r, illness_az_np_r, injury_or_alc_az_np_r: Arizona-specific ED rates per 10,000 (non-pregnancy), by cause\nvisit_ca_np_r, alcohol_any_ca_np_r, injury_ca_np_r, inj_by_self_ca_np_r, inj_by_oth_ca_np_r, inj_accident_ca_np_r, illness_ca_np_r, injury_or_alc_ca_np_r: State-tagged ED rates provided where available in replication files, analogous definitions as above\nvisit_ia_np_r, alcohol_any_ia_np_r, injury_ia_np_r, inj_by_self_ia_np_r, inj_by_oth_ia_np_r, inj_accident_ia_np_r, illness_ia_np_r, injury_or_alc_ia_np_r: State-tagged ED rates provided where available in replication files, analogous definitions as above\nvisit_nj_np_r, alcohol_any_nj_np_r, injury_nj_np_r, inj_by_self_nj_np_r, inj_by_oth_nj_np_r, inj_accident_nj_np_r, illness_nj_np_r, injury_or_alc_nj_np_r: New Jersey-specific ED rates per 10,000 (non-pregnancy), by cause\nvisit_wi_np_r, alcohol_any_wi_np_r, injury_wi_np_r, inj_by_self_wi_np_r, inj_by_oth_wi_np_r, inj_accident_wi_np_r, illness_wi_np_r, injury_or_alc_wi_np_r: Wisconsin-specific ED rates per 10,000 (non-pregnancy), by cause","file_sha256":"e49a7ad686067a4e4e119b7ab85a0dc1a8e562b1b5fc83d3f4e1d9b4b626d6e4","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does gaining legal access to alcohol at the U.S. minimum legal drinking age cause an increase in nonfatal morbidity?","question_sha256":"757d884e6fbb26947fc783919b67e9d692f846a9fece05cce56f547a5829327b","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","task_sha256":"0d823c3b2a514ffe2385ecd8b304d6a6a906bbe7f25bda6cfea82de454223d77","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.657523Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_f16d6d7f","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["8d4768333f84d2b4ca34e87b6359ce21ba5bf67610dc077d2e0af279b86861d5"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"fa0a3d9fe0f3221026ec0e44acd4e5d28049bce4b256817b8463e2ff53717c06","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.657523Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_1fc1533f","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.660900Z","turn_id":"call_f16d6d7f","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.660999Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.660999Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":71.294,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q054","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q054","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.660999Z"}