{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"krasno_do_televised":{"description_shown":"The dataset aggregates information for 128 \"\"media zones,\"\" defined as the intersection of a state and a media market, from the 2000 U.S. presidential election. It combines data on voter turnout, television advertising, candidate visits, and voter contact to study how presidential TV ads influenced voter participation. Advertising measures come from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), turnout and population statistics are drawn from the America Votes series and the U.S. Census, candidate visit data are taken from Althaus, Nardulli, and Shaw (2002), and voter contact rates are based on the 2000 Annenberg survey.\n\nData variables are:\nstate: State\ndma: Media Market\nturn00: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 2000\nturn96: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1996\nturn92: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1992\nturn88: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1988\nturn90: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1990\nturn94: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1994\nturn98: Turnout of voting-age citizens, 1998\nsenate: Turnout in most recent Senate election ('98 or '94)\nprezg: Presidential ad GRPs\nseng: Senatorial ad GRPs\nhseg: House ad GRPs\nissg: Issue ad GRPs\nothg: Other office ad GRPs\ngovg: Gubernatorial ad GRPs\nbalg: Ballot initiative ad GRPs\npq: p(1 - p)\np: Turnout in 2000\nsum_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 7/1/2000\nfall_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 9/1/2000\nyr_grp: GRPs - all ads starting 1/1/2000\nbush: Number of candidate visits by Bush\ncheney: Number of candidate visits by Cheney\ngore: Number of candidate visits by Gore\nlieb: Number of candidate visits by Lieberman\nn0901: Number polled 9/1/2000\ncont0901: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 9/1/2000\nn1001: Number polled 10/1/2000\ncont1001: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 10/1/2000\nn1016: Number polled 10/16/2000\ncont1016: Proportion reporting being contacted about presidential election, 10/16/2000\nyr_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000\nyr_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000\nyr_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 1/1/2000\nsum_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000\nsum_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000\nsum_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 7/1/2000\nfall_att: Attack ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000\nfall_con: Contrast ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000\nfall_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - starting 9/1/2000\nend_grp: GRPs - all ads, final three weeks\nend_att: Attack ad GRPs - final three weeks\nend_cont: Contrast ad GRPs - final three weeks\nend_pro: Promotional ad GRPs - final three weeks\nlncpop00: Log of citizen population, 2000\nbg: Indicator for battleground state","file_sha256":"557f9bcc8be77116fb5f38df0e569469eadc7072aecd833022441be593288801","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"How does an increase in presidential advertising intensity (measured in Gross Ratings Points) affect voter turnout in the presidential election?","question_sha256":"dbc167f00753d9772de794837407610a68f8eecccdc50452a27662ed4727c529","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","task_sha256":"a7e8e184dcb15ec67a480136868819cc6166de295c064db50cb6f69f83d9f52a","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.741268Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_fb037575","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["554d2209ffbb9f47d524430ec003dc95954811ae6aab2ef0a768681c6c21dcab"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"37effd2a5a31a064757a6424666857c1648c05b609303a920d90ac304da457eb","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.741268Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_47fee414","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.744812Z","turn_id":"call_fb037575","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.744936Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.744936Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.003,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q058","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q058","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.744936Z"}